For most of this past season, the Philadelphia Phillies had a major problem with the fifth spot in their rotation.
Early in 2024, Spencer Turnbull pitched wonderfully as a starter, posting a 1.78 ERA and striking out 38 in seven games. After his injury left the spot vacant, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard and Michael Mercado made starts here and there with disastrous results. Not one of those pitchers ended the year with an ERA below 5.00, going as high as 11.08.
Turnbull is now entering free agency and will look for a multi-year deal with a club based on his season as a starter at the beginning of the year. The club has Andrew Painter quickly working through his offseason progression coming off his Tommy John surgery, but his health and performance are a toss-up as he has never pitched in an MLB game and has only built up to three-plus innings in the AFL so far.
The free agent market will be hot as teams look to improve long-term and grab starters on big, multi-year deals. Where the Phillies can be aggressive is with their quickly blooming farm system and a newfound desire to shop Alec Bohm, among others, in the trade market.
4 starting pitchers the Phillies can trade for not named Garrett Crochet
While a splash deal for Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet might not be in the cards due to the Phillies wanting to retain high-level prospects, there are several other options that have been made known as available that can improve the Philadelphia roster.
Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo has been in trade talks for what seems like forever now as the Miami Marlins look to cash in on the 27-year-old.
Throughout 2024, the Peruvian battled injuries, which was likely the reason he was not traded at the deadline. Between 2022 and 2023, he started 50 games for the Marlins, pitching to a 3.48 ERA in 279 innings. Luzardo checked all the boxes with his 129 ERA+ and 10.6 K/9 while being above the 80th percentile in whiff and strikeout rates.
During his injury-filled season last year, Luzardo posted a 5.00 ERA while showing decreases in his analytical numbers which could scare teams off and lower the value. While he has shown flashes of being an elite pitcher in MLB, over his six seasons in the majors, his career ERA+ is just 103, slightly above league average.
On the other hand, it could entice the Marlins to hold on to their prized possession for just another half year and reevaluate Luzardo's value at the 2025 trade deadline because when it all comes down to it, the young lefty still has two arbitration years left from his rookie structure.
This deal would be one of the more expensive but realistic deals the Phillies front office could pull off. Seeing as though Luzardo is still 27 and under team control for two seasons, the price tag will likely cost multiple mid- to upper-tier prospects or a MLB-ready player plus more.
Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery has had a whirlwind of a past two seasons.
The 31-year-old started 2023 off in St. Louis pitching for the Cardinals before being dealt at the deadline to the hard-nosed Texas Rangers who were on the prowl for their first World Series trophy in club history. There, he became a postseason hero, throwing 25 innings and only giving up six runs on the way to the Rangers' first title.
Fast forward to 2024, where he was given a deal due $22.5 million as well as a player option for 2025 by the Arizona Diamondbacks. After a disastrous season where he lost his spot to Ryne Nelson, Montgomery was publicly criticized by Diamondbacks team owner Ken Kendrick.
“If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed,” Kendrick said. "Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint".
A Montgomery trade would benefit the Phillies as the Diamondbacks have made it clear that they would be open to retaining a large portion of his salary just to get him off the roster. With the words that have been said, it seems that the relationship has been ruined and that could mean a steal of a deal for an interested club.
Jameson Taillon
Another name that was thrown around a ton at last year's trade deadline, Jameson Taillon could find himself in the midst of it again this offseason. Due to earn $18 million in both of the next two seasons, the Chicago Cubs may cash in on his value and look to upgrade pitching on the open market.
The 32-year-old has been a workhorse in Pittsburgh, New York and most recently Chicago. During his eight seasons pitching in the big leagues, Taillon has started over 25 games six times, with his only season not including his rookie campaign and his injury-shortened 2019.
The Florida native pitched to a career year last season with the Cubs, posting a 122 ERA+, matching his best full-season mark. He threw 165 1/3 innings with a 1.13 WHIP and a BB/9 of only 1.8, a mark that puts him in the 93rd percentile. A different type of pitcher than that of the two aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, Taillon follows more of a Ranger Suárez approach: throw good pitches on the corner of the plate and get weak outs.
Taillon would give the Phillies exactly what they were missing in 2024: stability. A consistent presence to take the mound every fifth day and give you good to great pitching would add unbelievable value to the squad. The question will be how the Cubs view their current roster situation.
Chris Paddack
An underrated and undervalued arm in Minnesota, Chris Paddack is looking for another change of scenery to get him back on track.
The former San Diego Padre was a polarizing pitcher right away, making a name for himself his rookie year. In 2019 with San Diego, Paddack pitched to a 3.33 ERA over 140 innings while striking out 153 batters. His future was as bright as could be until things changed from there.
Over the next two years, the Texas native battled injuries and poor performances before being shipped out to Minnesota before the 2022 season. There he would find himself back on the mend, needing to undergo his second Tommy John surgery.
With a long recovery process and a cautious approach, seeing as he was only 26 at the time, Paddack finally returned to the mound part-time in 2024 and showed flashes of his elite stuff.
Chris Paddack, K'ing the Side. 🤠 pic.twitter.com/YPDX1c7ke8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 10, 2024
While it still hasn't clicked again yet for Paddack, he still has tremendous upside and the ability to be an elite pitcher at times, much like Luzardo. With the payroll issues that the Twins are facing (subscription required), per The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman, and an overwhelming amount of pitching, it would be likely they would be open to dumping the $7.5 million Paddack is owed for 2025.
Paddack is the opposite of Taillon, someone who can strike hitters out and provide elite outings but will occasionally get blown up. If the Phillies can wrangle his talents, he would be one of the best fifth starters in the league. If not, he is a long-relief bullpen option with elite stuff due little money. Either way, it's a win.