4 regression candidates the Phillies should stay away from in free agency

Armed with a roster with fewer holes than most other teams in their contention windows, the Philadelphia Phillies have a few different avenues they need to go down this offseason to upgrade their roster.

Sure, there are still a few spots in need of a facelift. The outfield needs some love, as only Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh (against right-handed pitching) were any good in 2024. The pending departures of Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman leave some huge holes in the bullpen. Then there's the starting rotation, which is 4/5 of the way set, but Taijuan Walker is about as big of a question mark as they come heading into 2025.

The Phillies are going to swing big in the free-agent pool, but they need to be smart about where they put their money. Signing a player like Juan Soto would be a move that'd work out in the club's favor. However, there are a few names that'll be hitting the open market that could very well be one-hit wonders.

Let's take a look at four regression candidates that fit the Phillies' needs this winter, but that the club will need to stay away from.

4 regression candidates the Phillies must avoid this offseason

Matthew Boyd

Boyd missed the vast majority of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He latched on with the Cleveland Guardians and made eight second-half starts for the club, as well as three strong outings in the playoffs.

The left-hander posted a sparkling 2.72 ERA across 39 2/3 regular-season innings before allowing just one earned run in 11 2/3 playoff innings. He looked outstanding, but that doesn't mean the Phillies need to throw an empty check and a pen his way this winter.

Boyd, 33, has struggled mightily with durability over the past few seasons. In fact, the last time he made over 20 starts in a single year was in 2019 when he surrendered an AL-leading 39 home runs for the Tigers.

Since then, he's made 15 starts in 2021, 10 relief appearances in 2022, 15 starts in 2023 and eight starts in 2024. In his 10-year career, Boyd has posted an ERA+ north of 100 (league average) just five times, with three of them coming in abbreviated seasons. He's about as average as they come in the grand scheme of things, so the Phillies would be wise to look elsewhere for an additional starter.

Randal Grichuk

The Phillies have an obvious need for an outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching, so Grichuk fully fits that bill. The 11-year vet played in 106 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, hitting 12 home runs and posting an .875 OPS and 140 OPS+ along the way.

In his career, Grichuk has a .274 average with 72 home runs against left-handed pitching while hitting just .242 against righties. He clearly has some traits the Phillies are looking for, but he's another player who had a strong 2024 and hasn't been great in any other recent years.

Grichuk had a 104 OPS+ in 2023 but was below 100 in that department in three of the previous four seasons prior to '23. He's always going to be a bat that slays lefties and records between 20 and 30 home runs per season, but he's a bit too inconsistent. The Phillies would be wise to look for help elsewhere, as Grichuk simply doesn't have the track record to suggest his output this season is repeatable.

Yusei Kikuchi

There's no doubt that Kikuchi is the player that will get the largest contract of the bunch we have in this list. The left-hander took a so-so first half with the Toronto Blue Jays and absolutely dominated the opposition in 10 post-deadline starts for the Houston Astros.

Houston clearly uncovered something in Kikuchi's game, as the six-year veteran posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 147 ERA+ across 60 innings of work. He added another strikeout to his K/9 rate, lowered his walk and home run rates by a tick and also allowed more than three hits less than during his time in Toronto.

Kikuchi looked legit on the Astros, but this is also just about the only success we've seen from him in his career. The southpaw had a strong 2023 showing for the Blue Jays, but he hasn't even been an above-average arm at any other point in his career.

While the production we saw in Houston is encouraging, the Phillies need to look elsewhere for that additional starter. Kikuchi is simply going to demand a larger contract than he's worth, and teams will be too eager to sign the Astros version of him. If they end up with the Blue Jays version, they're going to be sitting on a bad contract. Let that be the problem of another organization.

Tyler O'Neill

O'Neill, a long-time member of the St. Louis Cardinals organization, turned his lone year on the Boston Red Sox into what's going to be a nice contract in free agency. He managed to hit 31 home runs and drive in 61 runs in just 113 games, posting an .847 OPS and 132 OPS+ along the way.

Now, it's possible he'll earn a qualifying offer and if he turns it down, get a multi-year pact on the open market. However, it's important to note that he's another player that's wildly inconsistent. He has been around for seven years and has been an above-average hitter in 2021 and then 2024. Otherwise, he's been under that threshold.

Similarly to Kikuchi, the Phillies will need to take into consideration that O'Neill's strong showing this year could very well be an outlier. He's struggled mightily with his durability and he has yet to show that he's capable of putting together a multi-year stretch of above-average play.

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