Speculation has begun again about whether Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson will change the lineup order or not. This is one of the topics surrounding the team in the early part of spring training. The top of the batting order has been discussed as to the changes that could be made.
Kyle Schwarber has been the Phillies' leadoff hitter over the last three years. Despite arguments from the fanbase that he is better suited for hitting lower in the lineup, he has been successful batting first. He led the club with 47 home runs, and his 104 RBI were second two seasons ago.
Teams tend to have their best hitters batting in the first inning of games. Last year, the former fourth overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft compiled 38 homers and 104 RBI, leading the team in both categories.
He is their top producer in home runs and RBI. Moving Schwarber lower in the order, such as to third or fourth, would have some benefits. The left fielder could drive in more runs if he hits a home run in the first inning. However, moving him lower in their batting order would create other issues.
3 reasons moving Kyle Schwarber out of the leadoff spot is a horrible idea
Is Stott or Turner the best option to hit first for the Phillies?
Bryce Harper commented he would not be hitting first for the team if they make a lineup change, saying his preference is to hit lower than the leadoff spot, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
"I haven't been talked to yet," Harper said, per Zolecki. "Obviously, I'm a three-hole hitter -- or I have been. But whenever they tell me to hit two or four, I've done that in the past. I want to win, so I don't care what that takes. I'll take the extra at-bats, but I don't want to hit leadoff."
The top candidate is shortstop Trea Turner, who has previous experience hitting leadoff, and second baseman Bryson Stott, who has less experience hitting in this spot. Thomson spoke about the disadvantage having Stott batting first would create for the lineup on The Phillies Show podcast.
"The thing is that we're so left-handed, and you want Harper and you want Schwarber getting as many at-bats as you can," Thomson said. "Now you put Stott in the leadoff spot now you're really left-handed at the top, and it might create a problem, even if you're facing a right-hander, everybody's got three lefties in the 'pen it seems, and they'll just start matching up on you."
How well would Schwarber transition to another spot in the lineup?
If Schwarber struggles in another spot other than leadoff, how long would Thomson commit to the change? According to Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia, the Phillies' primary designated hitter has hit first in nearly 85 percent of his plate appearances during his three years with the franchise.
Due to Schwarber's success hitting leadoff with Philly, how long would Thomson stick with him batting in another spot if he does not do well? The 31-year-old set a new major league record with 15 leadoff home runs in 2024, breaking Alfonso Soriano's record of 13 set in 2003 with the New York Yankees.
Schwarber has 46 career leadoff home runs, tying him for eighth all-time. Last season, the Phillies went 13-2 in the 15 regular season games in which he hit a leadoff home run. While it is intriguing to think about how many more RBI he could have hitting third or fourth, the team benefits from him batting first.
The Phillies do not have many other hitters who are candidates to hit leadoff
Paul Hagen of NBC Sports Philadelphia wrote a piece in March 2024 about how data supports Schwarber batting first. He argues that Schwarber is not a traditional leadoff hitter, but he is the best option the Phillies have.
Center fielder Johan Rojas would be a candidate to hit leadoff when he plays. However, he does not project to be a full-time player. He is predicted to split time with Brandon Marsh in center field. Also, the 24-year-old had a .279 OBP (on-base percentage) in 120 games last season. Eight other starting players had an OBP of .311 or better.
Hagen wrote in his piece that Turner does not work counts often, which works against him as a candidate to hit first. Ruben Amaro Jr. said on The Morning Show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on SportsRadio 94 WIP that while he is okay with the shortstop leading off, his reluctance to run may not be the best way to protect Harper.
Marsh will be in a platoon role with Rojas and Max Kepler. A leadoff hitter needs to be a full-time player, barring injury. The 27-year-old's slash line of .249/.328/.419 was less than his 2023 line of .277/.372/.458. He is more of a fit for hitting at the bottom of the lineup.
If Turner works counts more frequently and returns to the sort of hitter he was leading off for the Washington Nationals, he could be a good alternative to bat first for Philadelphia. Schwarber represents the Phillies' best option to hit next after Harper to protect him. However, the club's primary designated hitter also possesses the most value out of all the possible candidates to lead off for Philly.