Is Rhys Hoskins the future at first base for the Phillies beyond 2023?
Do Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins’ defensive struggles loom large over his future?
What makes Rhys Hoskins so polarizing is his ability to go on hot streaks and cold streaks. In fact, Hoskins has had five separate months over his career when he played 20 or more games, yet failed to have a batting average above .200.
The most recent month Hoskins did this was April 2022. Hoskins started 21 of the Phillies’ 22 games and batted .197/.303/.368 — and also failed to have double-digit extra-base hits or double-digit runs batted in for the only time in 2022.
Hoskins also leaves a lot to be desired defensively, too. The 29-year-old committed a career-high 12 errors in 2022 and received backlash for letting a ground ball or two get by him in the postseason. Hoskins also ranked 34th among major league first basemen in outs above average. According to Baseball Savant, Hoskins was usually not the one to make the big play defensively — as his Outs Above Average (OAA) was -9 for the 2022 season.
Despite this, it still seems unlikely the Phillies could upgrade at first base — even if they wanted to. Hoskins may not be Major League Baseball’s best first basemen, but trading him away doesn’t mean the Phillies get a top-five player at the position, such as José Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt.
It would also be a head-scratcher to see the Phillies trade Rhys and then promote Darick Hall to the majors with the Phillies’ new-found expectations. Despite Hall batting .250/.282/.522 and slugging nine home runs in his 136 plate appearances, he is already 27 and the chances of Hall matching the upside of Hoskins appear incredibly slim.
What sets Rhys Hoskins apart from the MLB’s other first basemen?
Regardless if you are a Rhys Hoskins supporter or not, most signs point to him returning to the Phillies in 2023 and beyond. The right-handed slugger does have something working in his favor, however — making it unlikely he leaves Philadelphia.
Finding an everyday starter in Major League Baseball is not an easy thing. Getting rid of Hoskins could potentially create a hole at first base that the Phillies spend the next decade trying to fill. The Phillies are contenders to win the World Series again in 2023 — now that they’ve proven they can reach the Fall Classic. They have added superstar shortstop Trea Turner for the next 11 years, and creating a hole where they have a solid player raises more questions than answers.
There is also the issue of money. The Phillies have already allocated more than $130 million every year for their payroll through 2025, and $50 million through 2027 according to Spotrac.com. Managing Partner John Middleton and President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski “breaking the bank” further for a first baseman seems unlikely, especially with a bullpen that has been shaky for the past five seasons.
Hoskins’ contract wouldn’t come with the $25 million or more annual price tag associated with the premier first-base contracts of players such as Freddie Freeman or Paul Goldschmidt. Instead, a deal for Hoskins would likely be around six years and have an average annual value that falls more within the range of $18 million to $22 million.
This wouldn’t be a bad deal for a player who bats .242/.353/.492 in his career and hit 30 home runs in 2022. Hoskins may not be a Gold Glove winner or a Silver Slugger, but he doesn’t need to be. Hoskins is a perfect complement to the rest of the Phillies’ roster. Being able to boast better bats — such as Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber — is more telling of the Phillies’ abundance of talent in their bats than it is of Hoskins’ ability.
Overall, Hoskins returning to the Phillies on a long-term deal in 2024 hinges heavily on how he performs in 2023. But, if the home-grown talent can continue the ability to launch baseballs that he displayed in the postseason, Hoskins could become a career-long member of the Phillies.
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