Will Bryce Harper break these franchise records by the end of his Phillies contract?

Which franchise records will Bryce Harper break by the end of his Phillies contract?

When Bryce Harper signed his historic contract with the Philadelphia Phillies in March 2019, it seemed like all the time in the world.

Harper won’t be a free agent again until 2032; his 13-year contract is one of the longest in MLB history, and its $330M price tag was the richest in North American pro sports history at the time.

Seeing as Harper has a full no-trade clause for the entirety of his contract, he has plenty of time to cement himself in the franchise record books. In his first three seasons and 356 games with the Phillies, he has 351 hits, 87 doubles, 83 home runs, 240 runs scored, and 231 RBI. He’s also struck out 355 times, drawn 248 walks, and stolen 36 bases. His Phillies career slash line thus far is .281/.402/.556 with a .958 OPS; that slugging percentage and OPS currently rank first among all Phillies hitters.

Of course, Harper isn’t focused on personal glory. As he put it when he won the 2021 NL MVP, he’s “hungry” for more; he wants to win a World Series with the Phillies. However, we can’t predict the next decade of rosters, so let’s focus on Harper’s personal glory for now.

The franchise offensive leaderboards are littered with franchise legends Mike Schmidt and Jimmy Rollins, so the real question is, can Harper dethrone them? The caveat is that Schmidt spent his entire 18-year career and Rollins spent the first 15 years of his career with the Phillies, while Harper got started with the Washington Nationals. On the other hand, Harper made his debut at 19 years old, while Rollins was 21 and Schmidt was 22.

I opened up the calculator app on my phone and did some math. Here are some of the leaderboards Harper can scale if he continues his offensive dominance…

Phillies games played leader: Mike Schmidt (2,404)

Unless Harper signs an extension and keeps playing into his mid-40s, this one is just flat-out impossible. Schmidt spent his entire 18-year career with the Phillies, and played 100+ games in all but his first and last seasons. Between 1973-88, he averaged 147 games per season.

The pandemic-shortened 2020 season also hurts Harper, here. He played 58/60 games, but it’s a year of his career in the rearview mirror.

In order to break this record over the next decade, the MLB season would need to lengthen, as it would take Harper 204.9 games per year to overtake Schmidt.

Phillies runs leader: Mike Schmidt (1,506)

Can Harper score 126.7 runs in each of the next 10 seasons? That’s what he’d need to do in order to set a new runs-scored record.

Schmidt averaged 101 runs scored per 162 games. Harper has scored 100+ runs three times in his career, including 2021.

Phillies hits leader: Jimmy Rollins (2,306)

When you think about Jimmy Rollins in the context of Mike Schmit, it’s strengthens the former’s Hall of Fame case, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Schmidt was on top with 2,234 hits when Rollins overtook him, and what’s more impressive is that Rollins was only here for 15 seasons, so he was quite efficient in his takeover.

Bad news again for Harper, as he’d need 195.6 hits per season to overtake Rollins. Several players have had 200+ hit seasons, like Seattle Mariners legend Ichiro Suzuki, who had an astounding 262 hits in 2004. However, most of the high-hit seasons came in the late 1800s and early 1900s.

Phillies doubles leader: Jimmy Rollins (479)

This is a record Harper could realistically break. He’s already doubled 87 times in his first three years with the Phillies, a number made all the more impressive by how short the 2020 season was. Last season, he tied for the MLB lead with a career-high 42 doubles.

If Harper doubles 39.3 times per year for the remainder of his contract, he’ll be the new doubles leader.

Phillies home runs leader: Mike Schmidt (548)

Can Harper homer 46.6 times per year going forward? We’d love to see it.

Schmidt was a home-run king in his era, leading MLB in the category six times, and the NL twice. He had three 40+ and thirteen 31+ homer seasons.

Harper’s career-high thus far was 42 home runs back in his first MVP season with the Nationals in 2015, and he hasn’t surpassed 35 HR since. Not that 35 homers is bad, and we’re certainly not complaining, but it’s not going to be enough to become the Phillies’ new home-run king.

Phillies RBI leader: Mike Schmidt (1,595)

Harper isn’t exactly an RBI superstar, but that’s not entirely his fault. After all, if his teammates don’t get on base, there’s no one for him to drive in. Then again, he did start the 2021 season with 14 consecutive solo home runs, so maybe it’s a dual-sided issue.

So far, Harper has driven in 231 runs, meaning he needs to drive in 1,365 more to set a new franchise record. 136.5 RBI per season is a lofty goal; no MLB player drove in more than 121 runs last season. It’s highly doubtful, almost impossible, that Harper – or anyone else, for that matter – breaks Schmidt’s record.

Then again, Schmidt amassed these numbers over 18 years with the Phillies. If Harper had 15 more years, he’d need to drive in 91 runs per season, which is still lofty, but far more realistic.