Unexpected MLB team could be Phillies’ biggest competition for top offseason target

Will the Colorado Rockies snag Kyle Schwarber before the Philadelphia Phillies?

While the Philadelphia Phillies and Kyle Schwarber were reportedly close to a deal before the MLB lockout began on December 2, 2021, it never came to fruition, and when the lockout inevitably ends, they could lose him to another team.

According to The Denver Post‘s Partick Saunders, the Colorado Rockies expressed interest in Schwarber ahead of the lockout. When the lockout ends, they might resume courtship of the slugger.

Schwarber to the Rockies makes sense for a franchise that has lost Nolan Arenado’s offensive production and is expected to lose current free agent, Trevor Story, in the coming months. He can play left field and first base, and of course, he can hit.

Over 113 games between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, Schwarber had a powerful season, hitting .266/.374/.554 with a .928 OPS. His 106 hits included 19 doubles and 32 home runs, including 16 home runs in 18 games in June. He proved to be a valuable addition to the Red Sox, hitting a grand slam in the ALCS.

Colorado and Philadelphia have two of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB, which would benefit Schwarber immensely. They’re also two of 15 National League teams about to have the Universal DH, one of the only things the league and players’ union seem to agree on in their ongoing CBA negotiations.

Will the Phillies’ high payroll prevent them from signing Kyle Schwarber?

While the Phillies have the advantage of Schwarber’s former hitting coach Kevin Long, the Rockies have an edge in financial freedom. Their current payroll heading into 2022 leaves an estimated $98M under the luxury tax threshold, giving them a significant amount of flexibility compared to the Phillies, who have approximately $30M in tax space before they hit the threshold.

If the new CBA changes the luxury tax allocation, the Phillies will be more likely to resume their pursuit of Schwarber. Under the previous CBA, the average annual value (AAV) of a player’s contract counted towards the luxury tax each year, regardless of their actual salary that season. Schwarber is looking for a three-year deal in the $60M area; under the previous CBA, that would put $20M on the Phillies’ luxury tax payroll for each year he’s under contract, a significant increase.