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Phillies: 8 Free-agent starters who won’t stall out in September like Aaron Nola

By Gabrielle Starr

Sep 29, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) walks to the dugout before their game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 29, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) walks to the dugout before their game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Philadelphia Phillies need to sign a starting pitcher who can succeed in September

Aaron Nola had a frustratingly poor season that has many fans speculating and hoping he’ll be traded this winter. The Philadelphia Phillies starter posted some of the worst numbers of his career, including elevated hit and home runs, as well as a decreased strikeout rate.

However, one of the biggest problems with Nola’s performance is not specific to this season: he struggles in September.

In his career, Nola has a 4.60 ERA over 33 September/October regular-season starts, with opposing hitters collectively slashing .253/.315/.443 with a .758 OPS against him. .443 is the highest slugging percentage against him in any month of the season. His 32 home runs allowed is nearly double as many as he’s allowed in his second-worst month (June, 19). He has also allowed 324 total bases in his September/October starts, and has never allowed more than 241 in any other month.

Since career is a broad sample size, here’s his ERA in September/October in each season of his career:

2015: 4.18 (5 starts)
2016: Did not pitch
2017: 3.86 (5 starts)
2018: 3.72 (6 starts)
2019: 6.51 (5 starts)
2020: 3.57 (6 starts)
2021: 6.19 (6 starts)

Aaron Nola is “tired,” but so are the excuses. light. More

The Phillies have become known for collapsing down the stretch, and evidence would suggest that Nola is a key reason why. He finished the season with a 2.7 ERA, so, to that end, here are some free-agent starters with better fall numbers and 2021 WAR over 3 who could replace him in the rotation, should the Phillies choose to trade him, or simply join him in the rotation if they do not:

1. Max Scherzer (7.2 WAR)

While getting Max Scherzer is probably a pipe dream, let’s dream for a moment.

Scherzer has a career 3.26 ERA over 76 September/October games in his career. In his six starts that month during the most recent season, he had a 2.29 ERA over 39 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts.

Despite the fact that he’s 37 years old, the eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young will be one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason.

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