4 Contracts holding the Phillies back this offseason

Aaron Nola’s contract is holding the Phillies back

Aaron Nola hurt the Phillies more than he helped them this year, which is never something you want to be able to say about a starting pitcher signed to a four-year, $45M contract.

The Phillies went 15-17 in Nola’s starts. Streaky offense aside, it’s easy to pinpoint Nola as a major issue: he allowed three or more runs in 19 of his starts and allowed four or more runs in 12 of them. The blame is almost entirely on him, too; only two of the 95 runs he allowed this season were unearned. By comparison, Zack Wheeler allowed 72 total runs this season, but only 66 were earned.

In his seventh season in the big leagues, Nola posted a 4.63 ERA – his worst since 2016 and the second-worst of his career – over 32 starts. He was often unable to go deep into games, and only compiled 180 2/3 innings of work this season; he’d exceeded 200 innings in each of the last two full seasons.

What’s more concerning is that Nola’s efficacy diminished: his hits/nine was the highest it’s been since 2017, his HR/nine tied his career-high set in his rookie season, and his strikeouts/nine diminished by a significant margin. Only his walk rate improved.

Should the Phillies trade Aaron Nola?

Nola is set to make $15M in the final year of his deal, and the Phillies also have a $16M club option on him for 2023. He could have a bounce-back 2022, or he could continue to spiral down the drain.

Trading him is a risk either way: either they trade him and he bounces back elsewhere, or they don’t trade him, and he pitches the same or gets worse.