Sep 5, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) pitches against the Oakland Athletics at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
After their first winning season since 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies are expected to make moves this offseason.
They absolutely should; every year that they don’t go all in is a year wasted on Bryce Harper‘s mega-contract.
But when the Phillies decide to go shopping, they should not throw caution to the wind and abandon practicality. There are quite a few players on the market this winter whom the Phillies should be wary of signing.
Here are three:
The Phillies should be wary of Corey Seager’s injury history
Corey Seager is one of the best players in baseball when he’s healthy.
Unfortunately, the shortstop dealt with a plethora of injuries that have severely impacted his playing time. In his seven-year career, Seager has only played in 100+ games three times, most recently in 2019.
Technically, his 52 games played in the 60-game 2020 season would also amount to approximately 139 games, though that would also assume he’d avoid injury in a full season.
The Phillies already had to contend with Didi Gregorius‘ injury-impacted 2021 season, and if they do decide to move on from him, it will be costly; he is owed $14 million for 2022.
The absolute worst-case scenario for the Phillies this offseason would be to throw an absurd amount of money at Seager, only for him to get injured again and spend significant time on the sidelines. There are less-risky, more affordable options available.
The Phillies should be wary of targeting Robbie Ray in free agency
Robbie Ray is likely going to be the American League Cy Young for the 2021 season, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies should empty the coffers for him.
Ray led the American League in ERA (2.84) and ERA+ (154), starts (32), innings pitched (193 1/3), WHIP (1.045), and led MLB in strikeouts (248), edging Zack Wheeler out at the last minute.
In terms of ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, and walk rate, it was Ray’s best season of his eight-year career.
However, in all but one other season, Ray has posted an ERA of 3.52 or higher.
His stellar season evokes Giancarlo Stanton in 2017, in that both seasons were largely anomalous from the players’ norms. In 2017, Stanton hit 59 home runs and won NL MVP. The Yankees eagerly traded for him after that season and took on his boondoggle of a contract from the Marlins.
His offensive production with the Yankees has been fine, but just as he did in Miami, Stanton has missed significant playing time due to injuries. With the Yankees, he’s a .269 hitter making an annual average salary of $25 million.
Comparing pitchers and hitters is like comparing apples and oranges, but recency bias doesn’t discriminate based on position. Ray was great in 2021, but the Phillies should exercise caution.
Dave Dombrowski is familiar with Ray, having traded for him before back in 2013. As GM of the Detroit Tigers, he sent Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Ian Krol, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ray. He debuted with Detroit in 2014, and posted an 8.16 ERA over nine games, including six starts. He was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks after that season.
Many of Ray’s seasons have been described as unremarkable and inconsistent. The Phillies can find someone else who meets that criteria at a cheaper price.
Craig Kimbrel (46) Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports /
The Phillies should not make a move for Craig Kimbrel
Another pitcher Dave Dombrowski has traded for in the past, Craig Kimbrel has, at many points in his career, been one of the best closers in baseball.
Phillies fans were begging the front office to make a move for Kimbrel at the 2021 trade deadline, but he went across town to the Chicago White Sox, instead.
His first half with the Cubs and second half with the Sox were like night and day. Whereas he posted a 0.49 ERA over 39 appearances with the Cubs, his ERA skyrocketed to 5.09 in 24 games with the Sox.
Part of this was due to him being used as a setup man rather than closer. He closed 35 games for the Cubs and only eight for the Sox.
Kimbrel does have the postseason experience the Phillies are looking for, but he’s a risk in October, too. During the Red Sox’s 2018 postseason run, he had a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 innings, and Alex Cora was so concerned about his reliability that he used his starting pitchers in relief in each series. The final inning of the World Series was given to Chris Sale instead of Kimbrel, just to be safe.
It’s likely the Sox exercise his club option for 2022 and then flip him, so as to gain something rather than simply let him walk. It’s a smart plan for them, but the Phillies should not allow themselves to be enticed.
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