NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action against the New York Mets during game one of a doubleheader at Citi Field on June 25, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
The Philadelphia Phillies cemented a full decade without postseason play this year, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t make enough progress to say they shouldn’t be active this offseason. Their first winning season since 2011 is certainly something to build upon.
In what will be president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski‘s first full offseason (he was hired in December), the longtime executive will have his work cut out for him. Many of their acquisitions from last winter failed dismally, and the franchise’s player development has ruined many top prospects, leaving them with little to work with internally.
However, according to Spotrac, the Phillies had a $183,852,734 total payroll in 2021, and when current contracts with impending free agents expire, currently stand to have a $153,763,462 payroll in 2022. So, between the significant amount of space they have under the luxury tax threshold and their claim ahead of the trade deadline that they are finally willing to exceed said threshold, the Phillies have plenty of money and roster space to make serious improvements before next year.
Here are the three most pressing questions the Phillies need to answer this offseason…
Who can bolster the Phillies bullpen?
The Phillies bullpen had the distinct dishonor of tying the all-time MLB record for blown saves in a single season (34) set by the Colorado Rockies in 2004. Thankfully, the Washington Nationals ended up setting a new record by blowing 35, but it’s still embarrassing for the Phillies that they hit the all-time mark first.
Clearly, an overhaul of the bullpen is required. First things first, they have to decide if they want to bring back Hector Neris, who was excellent in the first two months of the season, a disaster for the next, and then came back around for the final two months. Reliable closers are a rare breed, so replacing Neris wouldn’t be easy. And with his seesaw-esque struggles, they can re-sign him to an affordable one-year deal with a club option for 2023.
Archie Bradley, Ian Kennedy, and Matt Moore all hit free agency this winter along with Neris. Bradley is the only one who feels worthy of bringing back.
Signed to a one-year deal for $6 million, Bradley posted a 3.71 ERA over 53 appearances, pretty much in line with his numbers in the two full seasons pre-pandemic, when he totaled a 3.58 ERA over 142 games. Bradley only allowed five home runs all season and lowered his walks-per-nine rate from 2019.
Kennedy was acquired in a large trade with the Texas Rangers, but fell apart with his new team. He had a 2.51 ERA over 32 games in Texas, and a 4.13 ERA over 23 games in Philly.
Moore worked as a starter, middle reliever, setup man, and closer throughout his 24 games with the Phillies, and wasn’t particularly effective in any role. In the rotation, he had a 6.55 ERA over 13 games; in the bullpen a slightly better 5.40. He finished the season with a 6.29 ERA and -0.8 WAR.
Many Phillies pitchers were gone before the season ended, including Chase Anderson, Brandon Kintzler, Vince Velasquez, and Enyel de los Santos.
The good news is, Dombrowski is known for bringing amazing pitching talent to his teams. He brought David Price, Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, and Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox, and they won three consecutive division titles from 2016-2018, and a franchise-record 108 regular-season games and the World Series in the third go-round.
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images /
What can the Phillies do about Alec Bohm?
Alec Bohm was the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2020, and then totally fell apart in 2021.
Of course, he played in more than twice as many games in his second season, but the collapse was due to more than a larger sample size:
Whereas Bohm had a well-above-average OPS+ in 2020 (137), his numbers were far below average (75) this season. He looked absolutely lost at the plate.
Defensively, the Phillies finished last in defensive runs saved (-53), and Bohm’s 15 errors were tied for third among MLB third basemen. However, when asked if the Phillies were planning on moving Bohm to another position, i.e. left field, Dombrowski issued a flat-out “no.”
In addition to his on-field struggles, Bohm was one of several Phillies who contracted COVID and missed significant playing time. The Phillies’ inability to get even 50% of their squad vaccinated this year led to numerous players being unable to contribute to their team, as well as risking the health and safety of those around them.
While the Phillies have become known for struggling to develop players, Bohm was absolutely soaring in 2020, and his struggles in his first full season are on both him and the organization. If they cannot figure him out in 2022, it will be an embarrassing failure for all parties.
Should the Philadelphia Phillies trade Aaron Nola this offseason?
Coming into this season, Aaron Nola was the ace and Zack Wheeler was the second-in-command. How the turntables turn.
While Wheeler had one of the best seasons of any MLB pitcher, Nola was a study in endless frustration. His season totals were a 4.63 ERA over 32 starts, with 223 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings. It was his worst season by ERA since 2016 and the second-worst mark of his career.
Nola’s inability to pitch deep into games meant that he missed the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2017 (aside from the shortened 2020). He did not reach six full innings in 18 of 32 starts, and only pitched seven innings or more five times all year. That shortcoming coupled with a struggling bullpen led to the Phillies going 15-17 in Nola’s games.
Heading into his age-29 season, the homegrown starter is a bit of a question mark for the Phillies. His four-year deal has a club option for 2023, but the Phillies could trade him ahead of this season or sometime before next year’s trade deadline.
So, the Phillies have to gamble now: do they trade Nola for a moderate-size return on the premise that he could have a bounce-back year in 2022? Or, do they keep him, hoping he bounces back in Philly, though his struggles could continue into next season, lowering his value further?
Dombrowski is known for prioritizing big pitching. He gave David Price the most lucrative contract in pitching history at the time and traded big to get Craig Kimbrel and Chris Sale to Boston. Those decisions played a key part in championship results.
The Phillies probably won’t end up dealing Nola this offseason, but they’re almost certainly discussing it.
Next. This is the worst offseason plan for the Philadelphia Phillies. dark
