FanSided

3 Phillies preseason predictions that were shockingly accurate

By Gabrielle Starr |
Sep 17, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper (3) watches from the dugout during the third inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper (3) watches from the dugout during the third inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
1 of 3
Next

Another season of middling mediocrity with a few sprinkles of greatness is over for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Yes, they made progress by posting their first winning season since 2011, but only by exactly one game. Their bullpen also tied the record for most blown saves in a single season (34) set by the 2004 Colorado Rockies and squandered Cy Young and MVP-caliber seasons from Zack Wheeler and Bryce Harper, and a breakout season from Ranger Suárez. There was also an exposé on the toxic culture in the franchise’s Player Development and farm system areas.

All in all, not a great season for the Phillies. But in typical fashion, the team somehow managed to do both everything and nothing they were projected to do.

Let’s revisit some of the shockingly accurate and inaccurate preseason predictions made about the Phillies…

TRUE: The Phillies were an enigma, as was their division

Looking back on some of the preseason predictions, it’s absolutely perfect that The Ringer‘s power rankings of the Phillies opened with, “Zero idea what to make of this team.” After a full season, I still don’t know what to make of them, either. Where they went wrong was praising Aaron Nola, Didi Gregorius, Brandon Kintzler (?!), Matt Moore, and Zach Eflin.

Sports Illustrated was right on the money picking the Phillies’ exact record, but they thought the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, and New York Mets would fare better, leaving the Phillies in fourth place. Baseball America also had them fourth, and did not predict that Harper would be one of the top-three NL MVP choices.

This says more about how whacky the NL East was this year than the Phillies’ actual talent. The Mets punted first place to the Phillies in early August and went on to collapse, while the Nationals sold off pretty much everyone not named Juan Soto. Ergo, Phillies in second place by default.

Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

FALSE: The Phillies would finish under .500, but their bullpen would be better and Aaron Nola would be the ace

Ahead of Opening Day 2021, ESPN wrote that the Phillies would finish with a 76-86 record; they finished 82-80. They hadn’t been above .500 since 2011, and had only been at .500 a handful of times. They ended that streak by eking out one more win.

As for best-case scenario, they predicted that the Phillies’ “horror-show 2020 bullpen” would be watchable “without a blindfold in 2021.” Wrong! It was worse!

They also were 100% accurate about Girardi having to “churn through five different closers,” as Hector Neris, Jose Alvarado, Ranger Suárez, Ian Kennedy, and Archie Bradley each took turns, to name just a few.

The best-case scenario also included the rotation finding a “quality third wheel” behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Instead, Nola (and most of the pitching staff) had a terrible season while Ranger Suárez moved back to the rotation for the first time since 2018 and was incredible. You win some, you lose some.

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

TRUE: Bryce Harper would have an MVP season for the Phillies, but Alec Bohm would struggle

Last but not least in the positive part of their projections, ESPN’s Doolittle wrote that Bryce Harper would “remind[s] everyone of why he was once projected as a perennial MVP candidate.”

Ultimately, their bold prediction about Harper was spot-on: he had a “huge season,” but it was “not enough to get the Phillies into the postseason.” He finished the season leading MLB in a career-high 42 doubles, as well as slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+.

However, the worst-case scenario section of the predictions was spot-on for Alec Bohm, whose sophomore slump was significant. ESPN dramatically predicted that he would commit 46 errors; he committed 16. They also wrote that the defense as a whole would show “the range of your average foosball table,” but the Phillies’ 94 errors were tied for 9th in MLB, and three of their division rivals committed more errors than they did.

What will it take for the Phillies to defy the odds in 2022? A real bullpen, for one thing. Really, though, it’s about letting Dave Dombrowski do what he does best: spend big to win big. I can almost guarantee that next year’s Phillies will be a very different team.

dark. Next. This is the worst offseason plan for the Philadelphia Phillies

Next
Home / Phillies News

Schedule