Phillies’ postseason odds say only one way to reach postseason

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 24: Pitcher Cam Bedrosian #52 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after giving up a two-run home run to Wilmer Difo #15 of the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 24: Pitcher Cam Bedrosian #52 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after giving up a two-run home run to Wilmer Difo #15 of the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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The Philadelphia Phillies’ postseason odds are slim after embarrassing loss

The good news is that as of Saturday’s victory, the Philadelphia Phillies have officially ensured that they will finish the season with at least a .500 record. For those of you keeping score at home, they have now won 81 games, exactly half the regular-season total.

The bad news is that their only real hope of making the postseason for the first time since 2011 is if they can overtake the Atlanta Braves for the division title.

FanGraphs projects that they will win 84.8 games. Before Sunday’s game, they listed them with a 26.1% chance of making the postseason. Sounds good, right? Not exactly.

After Sunday’s 6-0 loss to the Pirates, their odds decreased by more than half, now 12.9%.

The Phillies have no chance at the NL Wild Card

Diving deeper, FanGraphs notes that the Phillies have a 12.9% chance of winning their division, but a 0.0% chance to win the Wild Card. The Braves have an 87.1% chance of winning the division, and also a 0.0% Wild Card chance.

In the National League Wild Card race, the Dodgers, Giants, and Brewers are all listed as having a 100% chance of making the playoffs, because they’ve already clinched playoff berths. The St. Louis Cardinals’ late-season surge and the Dodgers and Giants’ endless grappling to be the best of the NL West mean that two of the three aforementioned teams will play in the NL Wild Card. The Dodgers have a 13-game lead on holding a Wild Card spot but are still trying to pull the division back from the Giants. So, the only way the Braves or Phillies make the playoffs are by winning the NL East.

The Phillies are currently tied with the Reds, six games out of the second Wild Card, both behind the Cardinals. However, they’re only 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the division race. With a lot of luck, they can overcome the latter, not the former.

On Tuesday, the Phillies and Braves will face off for three games. They’ll each have one final series after, but this matchup can and will likely decide both teams’ fates.

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