Phillies starting rotation upgrades now a major offseason need
The Philadelphia Phillies officially lost right-hander Zach Eflin for the season when he was placed on the 60-day injured list last week.
Their starting rotation, anchored by Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler, has been a question mark all season. Their lack of pitching depth has forced manager Joe Girardi into “bullpen games” every fifth game, a strategy expected to continue for the remainder of the 2021 season. Ranger Suárez, who had not started a game since 2018, moved back to the rotation in August.
The fact that Girardi’s options are thin is somewhat of a surprise considering the starting rotation was projected to be a strength of the 2021 Phillies.
The Phillies starting rotation was lining up well.
The future of the Phillies starting pitching looked promising by the end of the 2020 season. Right-handers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler were one major strength at the top of the rotation for an overall disappointing team.
Zach Eflin looked like a polished product and a solid fourth option in a deep rotation. Although highly-regarded prospect Spencer Howard never found a rhythm during the fluky 60-game season, confidence in his future remained high. Even the much-maligned Vince Velasquez didn’t look like a terrible option as a fifth starter.
Less than a year later, those projections haven’t held up.
While Wheeler has exceeded expectations in 2021 and established himself as the staff ace, Nola has been frustratingly inconsistent and unreliable. Despite multiple dominant starts, his ERA has risen toward the range of the worst of his career, set in his rookie season at age 22.
The organization laid out a head-scratching plan for Howard during the offseason. Their strategy to limit his innings and keep him out of the starting rotation temporarily was never effective. A multitude of obstacles came about, and the Phillies ultimately traded him to the Texas Rangers on July 30.
Eflin had a strong Spring Training and looked poised for a breakout season. He pitched well during the first half, but the injury and a short stint on the COVID IL have kept him out since July 16, and now his season is over.
Velasquez has battled injuries and performed poorly when healthy. It is unlikely he has any future with the Phillies.
The Phillies still have a chance at making the 2021 postseason
The Phillies acquired Kyle Gibson as part of the return package for Howard. The 33-year-old is in the midst of a career year in total between Texas and Philadelphia, his first All-Star season.
Lefty Ranger Suárez has been a pleasant surprise since making his season debut in early May. He began as a middle reliever but quickly worked himself into the closer’s role. He has allowed more than one run in only one his eight starts since joining the rotation in August. His collective ERA is 1.38.
Both pitchers have kept the starting rotation intact as the Phillies desperately cling to their playoff hopes. They hope to ride Zack Wheeler, who has shown signs of fatigue recently, and get some sort of rejuvenated effort from Nola in their September pennant race.
Projecting the 2022 Phillies Starting Rotation
The shuffle of starting pitchers wasn’t a problem the Phillies expected to face this year, but a new plan for the future must be put together this offseason.
Wheeler is under contract through 2024, and he will be the projected number one. The organization expects Suárez to begin the 2022 season in the rotation, and Gibson is also under contract through next year.
Nola’s struggles have thrown a serious wrench into future works. It’s difficult to project him at the top of the rotation, but the Phillies might decide that their option is to cross their fingers for a bounce-back season. Nola has performed at a level worthy of an ace for only one season during his career and consistently struggled in the month of September. It’s ambitious to count on him as a number-two starter moving forward.
It’s unlikely the Phillies can acquire another big-named starter from outside the organization, given Wheeler’s expensive contract and their desire to stay below the MLB luxury tax. At the trade deadline, the front office stated that the franchise was willing to exceed the tax threshold for the first time in their history, but that did not come to be. Perhaps this offseason.
The Eflin injury is another obstacle the Phillies will have to take into account. The timetable for his recovery from surgery is 6-8 months, meaning he won’t be close to ready for next Opening Day. They will need to evaluate his health and decide if they can realistically count on him making contributions during the first half of the 2022 season.
The Phillies don’t have many viable pitching prospects close to being MLB-ready
Top prospect Mick Abel will need time for development in the minors over the next few years. Prospects Hans Crouse, Francisco Morales, and Erik Miller are further along in their development. However, the organization is unlikely to count on a breakout season in the majors from any of the three. They have not given definitive indications on how they plan to use lefty Bailey Falter.
There is also the concern that failure to develop pitching is an organizational failure, a concern backed up by the fact that numerous top draft picks have failed to materialize as solid big-league pitchers. Dombrowski has already begun demoting and cleaning house throughout the second half of the season, and his first full offseason as President of Baseball Ops will likely contain more of that. It’s likely the right move at this point; the Phillies have been “rebuilding” for almost a decade with not even an above-.500 record to show for their efforts.
The Phillies need to choose better free agents this offseason
The seemingly sensible option would be to add starting pitch depth in free agency. However, the Phillies failed miserably in this route last offseason. They re-signed Velasquez and added Chase Anderson and Matt Moore for a combined $11 million. The three have provided minimal contributions, and Anderson has already been released.
At this point, Dombrowski should do what he does best and go hook a big fish. Almost none of his cheap options have panned out, and it’s a waste of Harper, Wheeler, and Realmuto’s prime years to not make a serious effort to build around them. At least then if the team fails, they’ve tried everything.
Dombrowski will have his work cut out for him in fixing this Phillies roster during the offseason, especially if the team can’t make a comeback and earn a postseason berth in 2021. He can add starting pitch, one of the only expected strengths at the time of his hire, to the long list of needs.