Phillies: This Bryce Harper stat proves he should win NL MVP

Bryce Harper is having the kind of season the Philadelphia Phillies dreamed about when they signed him to that blockbuster deal ahead of the 2019 season.

Over 111 games so far, he’s slashing .306/.420/.594 with a 1.014 OPS that leads all of MLB. It’s his personal best since his MVP season in 2015.

He’s having a second half that’s drawn comparisons to Ryan Howard’s 2008 fall dominance, and Jimmy Rollins likes his MVP chances. However, right now, Harper is being named as runner-up or even second runner-up in the NL MVP race. One outlet even went so far as to award the accolade to Fernando Tatis Jr. already. In August.

The argument many have made is that Harper wasn’t doing as well in the earlier months of the season as he has been since the All-Star break, and that lack of consistency doesn’t make an MVP.

But as the stakes get higher and the Phillies surge towards their first playoff berth since 2011, Harper has risen to the challenge. Isn’t that what being an MVP is all about? Being as valuable as possible when your team needs it the most?

Bryce Harper has come through for the Phillies all season

While Harper is no doubt having a stronger second half than the first, he was no slouch before the break:

Before All-Star break: (68 games): .282/.378/.520, .899 OPS, 47 R, 14 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 34 RBI, 35 BB, 70 SO

Since All-Star break (43 games): .348/.486/.723, 1.210 OPS, 32 R, 18 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 39 BB, 32 SO

By the old-fashioned metrics, Harper’s numbers are drastically different before and after the break. But by one of the newer, more advanced stats, he’s been MVP-caliber since long before.

Bryce Harper leads all of MLB in this offensive stat

According to an MLB Network infographic earlier this week, since June 11 (exactly one month before the All-Star break), Bryce Harper’s 189 wRC+ is the best in the game, and it’s not even close. Brandon Lowe of the Rays is the runner-up with 169. Harper is more than twenty points ahead of AL MVP-probable Shohei Ohtani, as well as Tatis.

In 68 games since June 11, Harper is hitting .335/.443/.674 with a 1.116 OPS, 51 runs scored, 24 doubles, a triple, 18 home runs, and 48 RBI.

Typically, I’m not a proponent of basing a player’s entire value (or lack thereof) on a single stat. But wRC+ is one of the more in-depth, newer formulas, and as the definition in the FanGraphs glossary points out, packs more of a punch than one of the old-fashioned metrics, like batting average:

"“Weighted Runs Created Plus is a rate statistic which attempts to credit a hitter for the value of each outcome (single, double, etc) rather than treating all hits or times on base equally, while also controllling for park effects and the current run environment.wRC+ is scaled so that the league average is 100 each year and every point above or below 100 is equal to one percentage point better or worse than league average. This makes wRC+ a better representation of offensive value than batting average, RBI, OPS, or wOBA.”"

So, Harper’s 189 wRC+ means that he created 89% more runs than the league average hitters would in the same number of plate appearances.

FanGraphs also notes that since wRC+ is “park and league-adjusted,” it allows for comparisons between players of every era, ballpark, and league:

"“wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place.”"

Since wRC+ actually factors in context, it can stand on its own more than anything in Harper’s very impressive slash line. It’s not cherry-picking to say that by this metric, Bryce Harper has been the most valuable player since June 11.

And not just in the National League, but in all of MLB.