Zack Wheeler snubbed in Cy Young predictions

To many, Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is a top NL Cy Young contender.

Many, but not everyone, apparently.

Around the halfway point of the season, Wheeler was considered the probable runner-up to Jacob deGrom, who was having an incredible season before injuries shut him down for the year, earlier this month. After deGrom’s injury situation worsened, the award was Wheeler’s to lose. His ERA has risen over the last two months, but he’s still one of the best arms in the game, even if not enough people are talking about him.

Or in this case, mathematically factoring him into the Cy Young equation.

ESPN’s Cy Young prediction list doesn’t even have Zack Wheeler on it

ESPN has an online tool called the Cy Young Predictor, based on Bill James and Rob Neyer’s The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers‘ formula. You can use it to see this year’s ten most likely Cy Young-winners in each league, as well as past years, dating back to 2002.

According to James and Neyer, Cy Young Points (CYP) are the numeric probability of a pitcher’s chance at winning the Cy Young. Here’s their calculation:

CYP = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

*VB is a victory bonus of 12 points if you lead your team to the division championship. The list currently has added VBs to the scores of the pitchers who play on teams in first place in their division.

Somehow, Wheeler is not one of the ten players listed for this year’s NL candidates.

The tool has calculated that Dodgers star Walker Buehler has the highest CYP, followed by Kevin Gausman, Julio Urias, Josh Hader, Mark Melancon, Max Scherzer, Jake McGee, Adam Wainwright, Corbin Burnes, and Charlie Morton.

Wheeler has made more starts, pitched more innings, and struck out more batters than everyone on that list. He has a better ERA than Urias and Morton, and for most of the season, it was lower than several of the others, too. Only one of the ten players has a shutout game; Wheeler has two.

How good are Zack Wheeler’s numbers compared to other NL pitchers?

Wheeler’s numbers for the season thus far are impressive: a 3.01 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, and 2.69 FIP over 27 starts. The FIP and WHIP are career-bests, as is the ERA for every full season (he had a 2.92 ERA in the shortened 2020).

Then there’s the leaderboard: Wheeler leads all MLB pitchers in complete games (3), shutouts (2), innings pitched (182 2/3), strikeouts (208), and batters faced (728). On August 25, he became the first pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts this season. No other NL pitcher has more than Corbin Burnes’ 189.

In the National League, Wheeler’s ERA ranks 10th. Prior to the All-Star break, it was third. He’s tied for fourth-most quality starts, and has the third-best walks rate. Only Adam Wainwright has a lower pitches/inning rate.

Can a relief pitcher win the Cy Young?

Hader, Melancon, and McGee are not starters, making it less likely that they’d win the award. Until 1974, the award had never been given to a relief pitcher. Mike Marshall, who passed away in June of this year, was the first. Only eight relievers have won since.

Has the ESPN Cy Young predictor been right before?

In 2020, the tool calculated that Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish had the highest CYPs. Bieber won, and Darvish lost to Trevor Bauer, who had the 7th-best CYP according their formula.

The year before, Justin Verlander was correctly chosen for the AL, but Jacob deGrom wasn’t even one of the 10 pitchers on the NL CYP list. Overall, the tool has been more accurate for American League pitchers than National League pitchers.

Zack Wheeler deserves more respect outside of Phillies fandom

While these stats are merely a predictive tool – and not a wholly accurate one, at that – the erasure is just the latest slight for Wheeler.

He was the presumed starter for the NL side at the All-Star game (his first), but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts gave that honor to Max Scherzer, buttering him and the Nationals up for the eventual trade. Wheels didn’t see action until there were two outs in the ninth and the game was already lost; only then did Roberts put him in.

Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. It’s not fandom, it’s fact.

Is Zack Wheeler having a Cy Young season?

At this point, I’m not saying Wheeler is the Cy Young. I’m just saying he should be on the list, and I’m baffled that this predictive method somehow excludes him.

We’re still a ways away from finding out who will win the coveted pitching prize, but this should serve as a reminder that no tool is foolproof, and no stat should stand alone.