How much better would the Phillies’ record be without this MLB rule?
The Philadelphia Phillies have won eight in a row and assumed a somewhat comfortable spot atop the NL East. They’re two games up on the Atlanta Braves, and two and a half on the New York Mets, who have sunk down to third.
But despite their recent success, the bullpen continues to be a problem for the Phillies. They still lead all of MLB with 25 blown saves, though the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers, whom they will host on Tuesday night for three games, are close behind them with 24 and 23 blown saves, respectively.
The Phillies bullpen isn’t exactly overflowing with Cy Young or the now-defunct Rolaids Relief Man Award-caliber arms, but there’s also a recent rule that has seriously impacted them this season: none other than the three-batter minimum.
Prior to the 2020 season, MLB implemented the three-batter minimum, which stipulates that a pitcher will face at least three batters (that part is pretty self-explanatory) before a manager can pull them from the game. The only exceptions are if the inning ends before the pitcher faces three batters, or obviously, injury.
MLB claims that the rule does this:
"“Reduce the number of pitching changes and, in turn, cut down the average time per game…”"
Technically, this could be true. Some managers (Kevin Cash, for example) used to do specific pitcher-batter matchups, one pitcher to face one specific batter because the analytics said so. The rule prevents this but creates other problems instead.
Leaving an ineffective pitcher in a game actually prolongs the game. In the case of Mauricio Llovera on Saturday, he gave up three back-to-back home runs in the ninth inning without recording an out. He put the Mets on the board for the first time in the game and required Girardi to bring in Ian Kennedy to get the save. But for those three home runs, Girardi had to stay in the dugout, powerless to stop Llovera.
Now, in fairness, this rule impacts every team. The Phillies just happen to also have a very bad bullpen, so this rule exacerbates that.
Phillies manager Joe Girardi “hates” the 3-Batter Minimum rule
After Saturday’s Llovera debacle, Girardi made his feelings on the rule abundantly clear:
"“The three-batter rule, I will still hate and hate and hate. I think it changes the strategy of the game too much. I think it forces you sometimes to use pitchers more than you want to, like the back end (of your bullpen).”“That’s one rule that I wish they would change. I’m all for a lot of the other ones, but that’s one that I think messes with the strategy way too much.”"
Girardi and I have this in common. You can read my lengthy Twitter thread about this from March 2019, before the rule was even implemented.
This rule traps a pitcher in the game, and he must face three batters no matter how ineffective he is. It also undermines the manager’s authority, as they are trapped on the sidelines, watching as someone like Llovera gives up three back-to-back home runs, potentially costing your team a game that did not have to be lost. This rule makes baseball about a rule, rather than the actual skill and choices of the players and manager.
How many games has this rule cost the Phillies? How many postseason games, the highest of high stakes, have been and will be impacted by this rule? How many legendary games would have been ordinary if this rule had existed in their time?
Like many rule changes in MLB, a rule came from the top with little to no consideration for how it impacts baseball at the game level. We’re seeing the same thing with the abrupt midseason ban on foreign substances for pitchers, a rule that Tyler Glasnow maintains caused his season-ending injury. He had Tommy John earlier this month. As usual, the players (and in this case managers) are merely puppets, and MLB is the puppetmaster.
The Phillies have 25 blown saves this season. It’s fair to wonder how much better their record would be if this rule did not exist.
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