The Phillies are going to regret this 2020 trade

Former Phillies prospect Connor Seabold shines in the Red Sox farm system

It’s almost the one-year anniversary of this trade between the Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox, and it’s astounding how badly it turned out for the Phillies.

And it looks like it’s only going to get worse. For the Phillies, that is.

On August 21, 2020, the Phillies traded Nick Pivetta and prospect Connor Seabold to the Red Sox in exchange for closer Brandon Workman and reliever Heath Hembree.

At the time, the Phillies were 9-13 (shortened season, remember?) and the Red Sox were 9-18.

By the end of the season, Philadelphia finished third in the NL East, 28-32. Boston was fifth in the AL East, 24-36.

How did Brandon Workman pan out for the Phillies?

Workman, who was originally drafted by the Phillies in the third round of the 2007 June Amateur Draft but did not sign, looked like an answer to the Phillies’ neverending bullpen woes. Between 2013-2019, he had a 3.74 ERA over 188 games, including closing 49 and earning 16 saves. He’d struck out 295 batters over 281 1/3 innings before the 2020 season began.

His 2019 season had been particularly spectacular: a 1.88 ERA over 73 games, all 16 of those career saves, 104 strikeouts over 71 2/3 innings, and he only allowed one home run the entire season. He held opposing batters to the lowest AVG in the game (.123).

Plus, he had postseason experience: a 0.00 ERA over seven games during Boston’s 2013 championship run, as well as three less-stellar games during their 2018 postseason.

Workman was having a fine start to the season at the time of the trade, but the season was less than a month old, so the Phillies had to be largely basing the trade off of his 2019 performance. In seven games for Boston in 2020, he had a 4.05 ERA, had struck out eight batters over 6 2/3 innings, and had four saves.

Unfortunately for the Phils, Workman fell apart on his new team. His ERA in Philadelphia was 6.92, he appeared in 14 games, including closing nine of them, but only earned five saves. While opposing batters had hit .296/.387.296 with a .683 OPS in Boston that year, those numbers skyrocketed in Philly: a slash line of .377/.457/.689 and 1.146 OPS.

How did Heath Hembree pan out for the Phillies?

It feels like Hembree was only part of this deal so the Red Sox could be rid of him. Between 2014-2019, he had a 3.63 ERA over 240 games in Boston with 260 strikeouts over 248 innings. Before the trade, he had a 5.59 ERA over 11 games, and the Sox were 3-8 in them.

His postseason experience is likely why the Phillies were interested at all: four scoreless, no-hit appearances during the 2018 postseason, totaling 4 2/3 innings of relief work. True, he’d walked five of the 16 batters he’d faced, but he worked his way out of those jams.

Phillies trade Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold to the Red Sox

At the outset, it looked like the Phillies were unloading a pitcher who had never been particularly good for them, and bundling him with a pitching prospect to make the trade seem more palatable, in order to gain two experienced bullpen arms. Maybe not the best, or most effective arms, but better than what they had.

In four years with the Phillies, Pivetta had a 5.50 ERA over 92 games (71 starts) with 421 strikeouts over 396 1/3 innings.

In parts of his first two seasons with the Sox, he has a 4.34 ERA over 23 starts, with 139 strikeouts over 122 1/3 innings. His hits, home runs, and strikeout rates are all improved from his time in Philadelphia.

Seabold, drafted by the Phillies in the third round of the 2017 draft, was the 30th-ranked player in their system at the time of the trade. He is now ranked 14th in the Red Sox system, and his ETA is listed as 2021. Considering his last outing – six shutout innings, ten strikeouts – he’s looking like a valuable future asset to his big-league squad.

How did this Phillies-Red Sox trade turn out?

One year later, Pivetta is still in the Red Sox rotation, and Seabold is throwing 10 K games for their Triple-A team. Workman and Hembree are no longer with the Phillies, who continue to lead MLB with 25 blown saves this season.

The Phillies are on a hot streak right now with four straight wins, but if Pivetta and Seabold continue to succeed in Boston, this trade will sting for a while.