Phillies: Biggest Do’s and Don’t’s at the Trade Deadline

The hot stove is heating up for the Philadelphia Phillies and there is some real optimism that Dave Dombrowski and company could swing a trade that would set this team up to make a run into the playoffs.

While the Phillies should do what it takes to bring in players who can genuinely help them play well into October, they still need to be careful. With that in mind, here are some dos and don’ts to guide them as they approach this year’s MLB trade deadline.

Don’t: Trade any top prospects

The Phillies should try to preserve their farm system as much as possible at the trade deadline.

The Phillies have a farm system problem. It’s not a new issue, it’s something they’ve dealt with for a while now, but as the years have gone on it’s become even more pronounced. As it stands right now, their minor league system is flat-out bad, and they’ve struggled mightily to develop talent.

When blue-chip prospects like Mickey Moniak (who was selected with the first overall pick in 2016)  and Adam Haseley(the eighth overall pick in 2017) have made their way up to Philadelphia, they’ve largely struggled to meet expectations. Moniak was called up again on Tuesday, but sent back down on Wednesday.

Prior to the start of this season, MLB ranked the Phillies farm system as 23rd in baseball. In their pre-draft rankings, FanGraphs had them ranked as low as 28th.

Mick Abel and Bryson Stott sit atop a depleted Phillies’ farm system

Right now the farm system is extremely top-heavy, led by pitcher Mick Abel and shortstop Bryson Stott. Both players should be off the table in nearly every trade discussion the team has. Abel was drafted 15th overall in 2020 and has ascended the ranks to become the top prospect in the Phillies’ entire system. Selecting a high school pitcher with your first-round pick can always be a bit of a gamble, but it looks like Abel could be the real deal.

Stott, on the other hand, figures to be the shortstop of the future for Philadelphia and was promoted to Double-A earlier this season. As it stands right now, Abel (59) and Stott (100) are both currently ranked among MLB’s Top 100 Prospects, they are also the only two members of the Phillies’ organization to crack the rankings.

The Phillies haven’t made the playoffs since 2011, and they have to hope that their window for contention is finally opening. If they want to make the most of that, then they shouldn’t totally mortgage the future of their top-tier talent.

After their top two prospects, things get a lot murkier for the Phillies. Just as you’d expect from an organization whose farm system grades out amongst the worst in the sport, they have a few players in the minors who could end up being contributors at the major league level, but no one who makes your jaw drop.

When it comes to prospects the Phillies could end up moving, catcher Rafael Marchan springs to mind. He ranks among the Phillies’ best prospects, but with All-Star J.T. Realmuto behind the dish for the next five years, Marchan would probably be better served as a trade piece.

While I don’t see the Phillies giving up on Spencer Howard quite yet, it’ll be interesting to see if they dangle him in any deals. He was called up again on Wednesday and has a 5.82 ERA over nine appearances at the major-league level this season.

Prior to the season, Howard was considered the top prospect in the organization. However, after some major early struggles with stamina, velocity, and command, it’s not unreasonable to wonder what his future in Philadelphia might look like.

Players like Chicago Cubs’ third basemen Kris Bryant or Texas Rangers’ outfielder Joey Gallo are sure to dominate a lot of headlines in the lead up to the deadline this year. Rightfully so, they are both great players who can make a huge impact on their new teams if they are indeed traded.

However, the Phillies shouldn’t further decimate an already-depleted farm system to bring them to the City of Brotherly Love. The temptation to move a top prospect in exchange for a superstar quality player is strong, but Dombrowski needs to resist unless it’s a truly perfect deal. Especially if that player ends up just being a rental. While the organization doesn’t have a ton of depth among their prospect pool, they do still have some quality players they could move.

Don’t: Sell low on Alec Bohm

It’s safe to say that Alec Bohm has fallen victim to the dreaded sophomore slump. It might be tempting to try and unload Bohm at the deadline or package him in a deal for a premier player, but unless it’s truly the perfect deal I think it would be a mistake. If the Phillies try to trade Bohm right now, they’d be trading him at a time when his stock has never been lower.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old third baseman is slashing just .243/.298/.343 on the year and has been a liability defensively. On top of his traditional stats, he has a -0.9 WAR and his 76  WRC+ is “good” enough for fourth-worst among all qualifying major league third basemen. This is hardly the follow-up that Bohm and the Phillies were hoping for after he finished second in NL Rookie of the year voting last season.

Lately, Alec Bohm has given the Phillies a nice lift

For what it’s worth, Bohm has looked better as of late. Since June 1, Bohm has hit .315/.383/.417. His lack of power is still concerning; he has just seven extra-base hits in that same time frame, but it’s definitely been encouraging to see him return to some semblance of his rookie form.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see teams asking the Phillies to include Bohm in any major trade negotiation, trying to strike while Bohm is struggling. If possible, Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld, and the rest of the team’s front office need to hold off. Bohm’s overall year has largely been a mess, but if they trade him they’d be selling low on one of their former top prospects.

Alec Bohm still has the potential to be a major part of the Phillies’ core in the future, and I am not ready to give up on him quite yet. That said, I am not completely against moving Bohm at the deadline in the perfect move, but it would need to be just that, the perfect deal.

Do: Make a run at Byron Buxton and Craig Kimbrel

The two weakest parts of the 2021 Phillies’ roster right now are the bullpen and center field. If they are serious about making a push for the NL East crown, then they need to find ways to upgrade both positions. Two players, Craig Kimbrel of the Chicago Cubs and Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins should be at the top of their wishlists.

Craig Kimbrel could save the Phillies’ bullpen

Craig Kimbrel has somehow regained the form that once made him the best closer on the planet. After back-to-back seasons of an ERA above 5, Kimbrel has been lights out for the Cubs this season. He sports a 0.53 ERA and has converted 21 of 23 save opportunities. That’s a stark contrast to the Phillies’ 23 blown saves.

For comparison’s sake, Héctor Neris has allowed nine times the number of earned runs (18) that Kimbrel has (two) and has allowed four more home runs. The Phillies lead MLB in blown saves, so it’s reasonable to say Kimbrel would be just a tiny bit better than what they have on their roster.

Kimbrel won’t come cheaply, but he has an option in his contract for next season, meaning he won’t be just a late-season rental. If there is any way they can get a deal without shedding a prospect like Stott or Abel, then it’s a no-brainer for the Phillies, even if Ranger Suárez, has shown some potential. Plus Dave Dombrowski has already traded for Kimbrel once before, so maybe a reunion between the two could be in the cards.

Could Byron Buxton be the next Phillies’ centerfielder?

Out in centerfield, Travis Jankowski is hitting .375 and has been playing out of his mind for the Phillies this season. That said, it’s a pretty small sample size and he’s definitely due for some major regression. Odúbel Herrera has slashed .241/.292/.390 in 62 games and the Phillies could clearly stand to do better.

Enter Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, the former top prospect and current Twins’ centerfielder is just 27 years old and should theoretically be entering the prime of his career. So why is Buxton available? And even more importantly, why might the Phillies be able to afford him?

Well, the biggest knock on Buxton throughout his career has been his inability to stay healthy. Since debuting in 2015, he’s played in 100 or more games just once and it was all the way back in 2017.

Earlier this season Buxton looked like one of the best players in baseball to open the season, hitting .426/.466/.897 through the first month of the season. He had a stint on the injured list, only to return and fracture his hand just a few games later in June. There is no guarantee that Buxton will be ready to come off the injured list if or when a trade is made, but he does figure to play again this season.

When he’s healthy, there are few outfielders in the major leagues as good as him. Buxton’s calling card throughout his career has been his elite defense, something he’s been recognized for with a Gold Glove and a Platinum Glove. The Phillies defense has been a mess this season, and they could use someone like Buxton patrolling center.

His health is a legitimate concern and I understand the apprehension in trading for an oft-injured outfielder, but his upside is also very real. If Buxton can come back healthy in time for a late-season push to the playoffs, he could be the boost the Phillies need both defensively and offensively.

Both Kimbrel and Buxton have the potential to turn the Phillies’ season around. They are capable of playing at an elite level, and if healthy would be major splashes. The Phillies should be aggressive in their pursuit of both of them.