Biggest July Storylines for the Phillies
The most important month of the baseball season is officially underway…
With the trade deadline at the end of July, we will see which teams are buyers and which teams are sellers. It will be the last chance for teams to figure out what they should do for the rest of the season.
July also brings the All-Star Game and break, as well as the MLB Draft.
Let’s talk about some of the key storylines for the Phillies this month…
The Return of Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura, and the Phillies Lineup overall
Jean Segura returned from a short IL stint on June 29 for the Marlins series, with Didi Gregorius following later in the week.
Before their respective injuries, the last time Gregorius and Segura were in the lineup together was May 12 against the Nationals:
- Andrew McCutchen LF
- Jean Segura 2B
- Bryce Harper RF
- Rhys Hoskins 1B
- Alec Bohm 3B
- Didi Gregorius SS
- Andrew Knapp C
- Odubel Herrera CF
- Zack Wheeler P
For better or worse, the lineup has changed since then. Herrera is now the everyday leadoff hitter, despite his 88 OPS+ and his .288 OBP. Bryce Harper, their best hitter, has been hitting in the cleanup spot, and McCutchen is lower in the lineup.
If I’m Girardi, I revamp the entire lineup. Gregorius should be in the heart of the order, with Segura higher up.
There are a few candidates for the leadoff spot who could do better than Herrera. J.T. Realmuto and Segura each have +.350 OBP, and are two of the best hitters on the team, though Segura is probably better hitting in the two-spot. Harper has a .371 OBP, but In has excelled batting third or cleanup throughout his career.
My ideal lineup:
- JT Realmuto C
- Jean Segura 2B
- Bryce Harper RF
- Andrew McCutchen LF
- Rhys Hoskins 1B
- Didi Gregorius SS
- Alec Bohm 3B
- Odubel Herrera CF
- Pitchers Spot
The Phillies need to figure out their Closer(s)
Girardi loves to focus on who his closer is, and for most of the season, it was Hector Neris. For the first two months, no one could argue that.
In 13 appearances in April, Neris posted a 1.54 ERA and held opposing batters to a .186/.255/.326 line, allowing just eight hits and three runs over 11 2/3 innings. He followed that up with a strong May, in which his ERA was a still-impress 2.38 over 11 games, and batters fared barely better against him: .175/.283/.350.
But in June, Neris fell apart. Opponents’ slash lines nearly doubled against him, and his ERA skyrocketed to 8.22 over nine games and just 7 2/3 innings. He blew the save in four of six opportunities in June, after only blowing two saves total in the previous months; the Phillies lead MLB with 22 blown saves. Girardi was forced to make a change.
Girardi went to Jose Alvarado; aside from Bailey Falter and Ranger Suarez, Alvarado has the highest ERA+ of anyone in the bullpen.
The key for Alvarado is lowering his walks; in the first 2 months of the season Alvarado had 17 walks in just over 17 innings. In June, he brought his month’s totals down to eight walks in 13 innings, a step in the right direction.
Sam Coonrod will hopefully return soon, and could bolster the bullpen. While he struggled in June with a 6.35 ERA the Phillies just simply need another arm to trust late in games, hopefully, a healthy Coonrod can help them.
The NL East and Red-Hot Nationals
The Mets are still in first place with a 44-37 record, while the Braves, Phillies, and Nationals are all tied up, each 4 1/2 games out of first. The Marlins are now nine games out, alone at the bottom of the barrel.
NL East in June:
- New York Mets: 15-15
- Atlanta Braves: 13-15
- Washington Nationals: 19-9
- Philadelphia Phillies: 12-12
- Miami Marlins: 10-17
After finishing below .500 in both April and May, the Nationals were the only team in the division to have an above-.500 June. Part of the reason they surged is Kyle Schwarber, who hit 16 home runs in the month of June and had an OPS of 1.122. If the Nats can keep this up, they might be in first place when the deadline comes around, though the Mets have been feisty all weekend, taking two of three from the Yankees in the famous Subway Series.
The Braves continue to have holes on their roster and while there is still time to make a push, they have to start soon, otherwise, they could be out of it.
The Marlins have been an interesting team. While they are in last place the month of June was not kind to them. They had a 6-17 record in one-run games, and have now lost Sixto Sanchez for the year to shoulder surgery.
However, the Marlins’ Pythagorean record is 42-37 which would be a lot closer to first place than what they are now. They are a better team than their record indicates, and a team that could be difficult to play against for any of these NL East teams.
The Phillies’ Schedule
The Phillies began the month wrapping up the Marlins series that began on June 29, and taking two of three games from the San Diego Padres.
On Monday, the Phillies overwhelmed the Chicago Cubs, beating them 13-3 in the first of four games at Wrigley. Their last series of the first half will take place at yet another historic ballpark, as the Phillies meet the scorchingly-hot Red Sox at Fenway. There’s a chance we could see the return of Nick Pivetta.
From the 11th to the 15th the Phillies are off, but will have some representatives at the All-Star festivities. In the Futures Game, we will see Bryson Stott, who was a first-round pick back in 2019. Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto will both be NL All-Stars.
After the break, the Phillies play the Marlins, Yankees, Braves, and Nationals, before closing out the month against their state rival Pirates.
As with every month, July is going to be a challenge. The series against their division rivals, especially, will be crucial in determining if Dave Dombrowski should buy, sell, or hold at the trade deadline.
The biggest question is, if they play close to .500 baseball, what will happen? Given Dombrowski’s reputation, they might choose to buy, especially if they are still somewhat in the division race. For what it’s worth, that’s what Bryce Harper wants.
Bryce Harper Wants Phillies To Be Buyers at Trade Deadline. light. Related Story