Grading Dave Dombrowski’s First Phillies Offseason: the Starting Rotation
When the Phillies hired Dave Dombrowski to be the President of Baseball Operations in December 2020, there were many questions about how Dombrowski was going to fill out the roster to finally start to turn the Phillies organization around.
Now that we are over two months into the season with over 65 games played, it’s time to evaluate the moves Dombrowski has made, starting with the starting rotation.
Phillies signed Chase Anderson
Dombrowski signed pitcher Chase Anderson, who’d previously pitched for the Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Blue Jays, and was coming off of a difficult season with Toronto, for $4M.
2020 had been the worst season of Anderson’s career by far; he posted a 7.22 ERA and a lackluster 6.16 FIP in ten games. For context, his previous career-worst was a 4.39 ERA over 31 games in 2016. Some of Anderson’s poor underlying stats include ranking in the 45th percentile in HardHit%, 56th percentile for average exit velocity, and 75th percentile for walk%.
To defend Dombrowski, Anderson’s overall career ERA and FIP of 3.94 and 4.54 are much better than the shortened 2020 season’s small sample size implies. His career includes a strong 2017 season in which he posted a 2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 25 games. The Phillies weren’t expecting that level when they signed him but were hoping he could bring some stability in the back end of the rotation.
Unfortunately, Anderson is now having the worst season of his career: in eleven games, he has a new career-worst 7.34 ERA. His FIP has improved slightly from last season to 5.60, but he is only striking out 6.9 batters per 9 innings. Anderson would then be moved to the bullpen when Spencer Howard was called up to take his place in the rotation.
Frankly, Anderson was a waste of $4M, and the Phillies are regretting the decision every day. Luckily, he is only on a one-year deal, but losing your spot in the rotation not even 2 months into the season is unacceptable.
Bad move by Dave Dombrowski.
Phillies added Matt Moore to the rotation
Matt Moore is a different case than Chase Anderson. With Anderson, they were hoping more for a bounce-back season, but with Moore, they were hoping he could change the path of his MLB career.
Before 2021, Moore last pitched in the Majors in 2019, when he only made two starts, but didn’t allow a run over 10 innings and only walked one batter. The season before offered more of a look at his abilities, as he made 12 starts in 39 appearances; in 2018, he finished with a 6.79 ERA, a 5.25 FIP, and an ERA+ of 70.
That stat line was not at all what people thought Matt Moore was going to be. At one point in his Minor League career, Moore has ranked ahead of guys like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Moore was supposed to be an ace for years to come, and he has disappointed.
At the beginning of his career, it seemed like Moore would live up to his potential. In Moore’s first full season in 2021, he made 31 starts with 177.1 innings pitched, posting a 3.81 ERA and a 3.93 FIP for the Tampa Bay Rays. For a 23-year-old rookie pitcher, this was a good sign. In his second season, Moore only got better, with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.95 FIP in 27 starts.
But in 2015, things began to go the wrong way in his development. Moore only made 12 starts and finished with an ERA over 5. The Rays were hoping the 26-year-old pitcher would break out as a Cy Young candidate and establish himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, and intead, he fell apart.
In 2020, Moore went to Japan to get his career back on track. The Phillies bought into the new Moore and signed him to a $3M contract for the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, Moore has not shown anything new or improved, as he made just three starts for the Phillies before Vince Velasquez took his spot in the rotation. Moore has a 7.36 ERA and a 6.64 FIP in 18.1 innings pitched. This is another move Dave Dombrowski is probably regretting, as Moore has not been able to live up to the potential he once had.
Both of Dombrowski’s rotation additions have failed, and the Phillies have gone back to the guys slated to be in the rotation before the new guys were signed.
The Phillies pitching staff overall has a 4.08 ERA, which ranks 9th in the National League. They’ve given up the 10th-most hits in the league and the 11th-most home runs. The starting rotation (Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Velasquez, and Anderson) has a combined 4.32 ERA; Wheeler‘s 2.15 ERA somewhat cushions the blow of Anderson’s 7.34.
So far, the news guys do not make the grade.