6 Phillies-Marlins differences that explain recent struggles

Another thing that makes the Phillies and Marlins so different is manager stability. The Marlins hired Don Mattingly before the 2016 season — and he has lasted through a stretch in 2018-19 when this team lost more than 200 games. The Phillies, meanwhile, have had three different managers during that time — Pete Mackanin, Gabe Kapler, and Joe Girardi.

Even through a rebuild, ownership change, and GM change, the Marlins have managerial stability — allowing them to build a consistent culture and perform better than expected, like a playoff appearance in 2020, and a close-to-.500 record with not a great ball club. When did the Phillies ever have a consistent managerial culture after Charlie Manuel?

The Phillies lack over-performing players compared to the Marlins.

The Marlins also are getting a lot of players over-performing based on expectations. Shortstop Miguel Rojas is a great example of this. Rojas has been with the team since 2015, after 85 games in 2014 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before last season, Rojas had a career 82 OPS+. He put up a 138 OPS+ in 2020, and now a 120 OPS+ in 2021.

Garrett Cooper was with the New York Yankees before going to the Marlins in 2018. Cooper had to wait until he was 26 to make his debut, so it is safe to say he had a long minor-league career. In Miami the last three seasons, he has a 113 OPS+ — including a 127 OPS+ in 2020.

Pablo Lopez, while younger breaking out than Rojas or Cooper, has taken time as well. In 2019, he made 21 starts and had an ERA over 5, and a FIP, while better, still not great at 4.28. The next two seasons, Lopez has been one of their best pitchers — with FIPs hovering in the low 3s and an ERA of 2.73 in 2021. The Marlins bullpen is full of different arms with high ERA+s without many household names.

There are not enough over-performing players on the Phillies year after year, while the Marlins have had plenty. Odubel Herrera may be one of the few, but that’s someone who is hitting barely above league average. Vince Velasquez, on the pitching side, has been a true surprise — but many suggest it won’t last long with a low chase rate and walk rate.