For a while now, the Philadelphia Phillies just seem to struggle against the Marlins. Last year, in a seven-game series that included two doubleheaders, the Phillies won just two games. Spanning this and last season, the Phillies only have a 6-11 record against their division rival.
Something popped into my head about these teams that might explain why the Phillies struggle against the Marlins. Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Didi Gregorius being hurt are a significant reason for this year. But what about previous seasons, such as in 2019, when 10 of the Marlins’ 57 overall wins came against the Phillies?
The reason is that the Marlins are nearly the exact opposite of the Phillies. Here are six differences between these clubs.
Six differences between the Phillies and Marlins franchises.
If we want to say the obvious, the Marlins have been known for being very cheap and parting ways with their bigger-named players — such as Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna. The Phillies, meanwhile, are a team that signs star players or trades for them. They even traded for Realmuto, a former Marlins star.
Another thing that makes these franchises so different is their farm systems. The Marlins have four top 100 prospects on MLB Pipeline — Sixto Sanchez (No. 12), JJ Bleday (15), Max Meyer (22), and Edward Cabrera. This already goes along with their talent already in the majors — such as Jazz Chisholm, who has a 130 OPS+ this year. A pitching staff with Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rodgers, and Pablo Lopez, all younger than 27, lead their rotation.
The Phillies, on the other hand, have just one top-100 prospect — Mick Abel, who is just 19. Among the young players on the Phillies big-league roster include Alec Bohm — who is having a brutal sophomore slump — and Nick Maton, a surprising young position player who should serve as a valuable middle-infielder moving forward. The Phillies rotation has no one younger than 27, but the bullpen features promising talents such as Connor Brogdon and Jose Alvarado.
The young Phillies talent just doesn’t compare to the Marlins.
Another thing that makes the Phillies and Marlins so different is manager stability. The Marlins hired Don Mattingly before the 2016 season — and he has lasted through a stretch in 2018-19 when this team lost more than 200 games. The Phillies, meanwhile, have had three different managers during that time — Pete Mackanin, Gabe Kapler, and Joe Girardi.
Even through a rebuild, ownership change, and GM change, the Marlins have managerial stability — allowing them to build a consistent culture and perform better than expected, like a playoff appearance in 2020, and a close-to-.500 record with not a great ball club. When did the Phillies ever have a consistent managerial culture after Charlie Manuel?
The Phillies lack over-performing players compared to the Marlins.
The Marlins also are getting a lot of players over-performing based on expectations. Shortstop Miguel Rojas is a great example of this. Rojas has been with the team since 2015, after 85 games in 2014 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before last season, Rojas had a career 82 OPS+. He put up a 138 OPS+ in 2020, and now a 120 OPS+ in 2021.
Garrett Cooper was with the New York Yankees before going to the Marlins in 2018. Cooper had to wait until he was 26 to make his debut, so it is safe to say he had a long minor-league career. In Miami the last three seasons, he has a 113 OPS+ — including a 127 OPS+ in 2020.
Pablo Lopez, while younger breaking out than Rojas or Cooper, has taken time as well. In 2019, he made 21 starts and had an ERA over 5, and a FIP, while better, still not great at 4.28. The next two seasons, Lopez has been one of their best pitchers — with FIPs hovering in the low 3s and an ERA of 2.73 in 2021. The Marlins bullpen is full of different arms with high ERA+s without many household names.
There are not enough over-performing players on the Phillies year after year, while the Marlins have had plenty. Odubel Herrera may be one of the few, but that’s someone who is hitting barely above league average. Vince Velasquez, on the pitching side, has been a true surprise — but many suggest it won’t last long with a low chase rate and walk rate.
Corey Dickerson #23 of the Miami Marlins (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
The Marlins are a lot closer to a complete baseball team.
Overall roster construction seems to also be way different between the Phillies and Marlins. Starting with the infield, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 91st percentile for Outs Above Average. The same goes for Jazz Chisholm at second base. Brian Anderson can also pick it a little at third, ranking in the 82nd percentile for Outs Above Average.
The Marlins prioritize defense a lot more than the Phillies. Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, and Alec Bohm at their respective positions simply don’t compare to the Marlins trio.
In the outfield, Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte are two guys with career OPS+’s over 110.
The Marlins starting pitching is really good with Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rodgers, Pablo Lopez, and even someone like Cody Poteet — who has had three good starts to begin his career. The Marlins also have a loaded bullpen with guys like Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber, Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and Ross Detwiler all having ERA+s above league average.
The Marlins may not have many household names, but they are a lot closer to a complete baseball team than the Phillies. While Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, and Bryce Harper are better than what the Marlins have, the Marlins — when healthy — can be closer than fans may think with all of their projected starters above 100 OPS+.
The Phillies starting pitching has been a mess — whether it’s Chase Anderson, Matt Moore, or whoever else they try. Vince Velasquez has been good, but that goes along with Aaron Nola being disappointing the first two months of the year. Zach Eflin has been about league average with a 3.84 ERA, and a 102 ERA+. Zack Wheeler has been carrying the pitching staff so far this year.
Archie Bradley #23 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
The bullpen for the Phillies just doesn’t compare to the Marlins. Girardi’s team has three guys with over 100 ERA+ (four if you count Ranger Suarez when he eventually gives up a run). After that, the Phillies bullpen drops.
Brandon Kintzler has not been getting the job done this year and Archie Bradley is still coming back from injury. You would like to see someone better than a 55 ERA+ and a FIP over 5.3. Brogdon has a FIP over 5, and they have tried guys like David Hale, Matt Moore, and Enyel De Los Santos to little success.
The Phillies have the star power the Marlins lack, but yet their division rival is a more complete baseball team that can compete every night.
The Marlins are more motivated and inspired than the Phillies.
The final difference between the teams is motivation and inspiration. When the Marlins were called “bottom feeders,” they became inspired. This motivation lasted the entire 2020 season, as they made the postseason over more talented teams.
The Phillies just don’t seem to have that as much. The most this team looked inspired was when they won nine of 10 during a stretch in 2020. With a record of 19-15 after that and a short season, they finished with a 28-32 record. The Phillies are the example of motivation and how it doesn’t last for a long time. They deserve credit for that stretch, but they lost steam and now we forget about it.
Overall, these things prove why the Marlins and Phillies are just so different. It gives some explanation to why the Phillies have such a hard time against this team. Not everything the Marlins do is perfect, but there are some clear differences between these two teams.
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