Has Vince Velasquez finally earned a spot in the Phillies rotation?

So far in 2021, Vince Velasquez has been the Phillies most improved player

If someone hopped in Doc Brown’s DeLorean, jumped out, grabbed me by the shoulders, and yelled at me that 2021 was finally going to be the year that Vince Velasquez figured things out, the first thing I would do is frantically ask how is Back to the Future real and why does its plot now hinge on a random back of the rotation starter for the Philadelphia Phillies? The second? Probably laugh in their face.

It’s happening though. Following a terrific start against the National League East rival Miami Marlins on Tuesday, Velasquez has cemented his place in a top-heavy rotation — whose back end has been unstable at best. Better than that, he’s been one of the best pitchers on a staff he was never projected to really make an impact.

Year after year, Velasquez has consistently left fans disappointed. He’s perenially so close to putting all the pieces together, but just flat out never has. Major League Baseball is full of these types of players who are hyper-talented and always on the verge of putting it together.

Look around MLB and you’ll see 30 teams who are all likely carrying at least one player that they’ve touted to finally break out every season for the last three years, only for them not to develop. Velasquez, though? He’s done it for about the last five.

The right-hander came to Philadelphia in December 2015 as a part of the trade that sent reliever Ken Giles to the Houston Astros. In Houston, Velasquez was one of the organization’s top prospects and by 2015, was listed as one of the Top 100 in baseball. However, he has never come close to living up to those expectations as a Phillie.

Since joining the team, Velasquez has had an ERA under 4.20 just once — 4.12 in 2016. Since that season, he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.85. Also, Velasquez has never thrown 150 innings and has had multiple seasons where he’s hit more opposing batters than he’s had wins. Right now, though? Velasquez is amid a massive hot streak and pitching the best he’s ever pitched in the majors.

Year after year, Phillies fans have waited for Vince Velasquez to break out.

After starting 69 of his first 70 games in red pinstripes through the 2018 season, the Phillies began to experiment with Vince Velasquez as both a reliever and swing starter. While it’s far short of what Philadelphia expected him to be, they hoped he could still play a valuable role on the team. It didn’t matter though. In 29 career games as a reliever, Velasquez has a higher ERA than he does as a starter (5.06 compared to 4.58).

One of the biggest things he’s struggled with as a starting pitcher is his inability to make adjustments when hitters clearly have. For his career, his first time through the batting order, Velasquez has a 3.44 ERA — while opposing hitters have hit .246/.324/.423. The second time through the order, his ERA goes up to 4.15.

If Velasquez is ever lucky enough to see the same hitters a third time through? It’s scarier for Phillies fans than any story that Stephen King could dream up. Hitters have destroyed Velasquez in their third plate appearances — slashing .312/.371/.572 (8.30 ERA).

Despite being a perennial breakout candidate, a lot of fans have given up on Velasquez. Once or twice a season, he will always flash the ability that has ensured the Phillies haven’t given up on him completely. However, he’s also consistently imploded and let fans down. Yet, somehow, someway, here we are again. Velasquez has finally broken through and it couldn’t be coming at a better time.

Over the offseason, the Phillies knew they needed to fill out the back end of their rotation. They had an open competition for the fourth and fifth starter slots among Velasquez, Spencer Howard, Ivan Nova, Chase Anderson, and Matt Moore. All of them had the opportunity to shine, but Anderson and Moore both ended up winning the last two spots and have been disastrous so far.

Between the two, Anderson has fared a bit better, just not by much. He’s made eight starts but lost his spot in the rotation after he was shelled by the Toronto Blue Jays to the tune of seven runs in 1 1/3 innings earlier in May. His ERA stands at a whopping 7.46.

Moore lasted just three starts and is currently on the 10-day injured list, but also has an ERA north of seven. Even though it’s early still, it’s fair to say that both signings feel like total busts.