Phillies need to add a shutdown left-handed reliever
The Philadelphia Phillies front office made some excellent moves this past offseason to turn what was one of the worst bullpens ever assembled into somewhat of a strength.
This year’s bullpen features pitchers who throw at consistently higher velocities, multiple guys who can be trusted with the game on the line, and an edge that wasn’t there less than a year ago.
However, the improved bullpen still severely lacks quality left-handed depth — a weakness that only will be exposed by good teams as the season goes on.
The Phillies can upgrade their bullpen by adding a shutdown left-hander
The Phillies currently have six left-handed pitchers on their 40-man roster: Jose Alvarado, Matt Moore, and Ranger Suarez in the majors, and Damon Jones, Cristopher Sanchez and Bailey Falter in the minors. (JoJo Romero was transferred to the 60-day IL and is no longer on the 40-man roster). That is not an intimidating group.
Alvarado is the only established big-league reliever with recent success. Even he isn’t dominant enough to be considered a “shutdown” guy. Alvarado is a solid reliever. He has 21 strikeouts in 16 appearances and has been electric at times. But he’s wild and inconsistent, walking 18.8 percent of the batters he’s faced this season (12 walks, 64 batters faced) — one of the worst walk rates in MLB. He’s also throwing just 43.8 percent first-pitch strikes and left-handed hitters have a .500 OBP against him.
The rest of the group doesn’t offer much. Moore and Suarez are long relievers at this point and the trio of minor-league lefties aren’t ready to contribute in Philly.
At 22-20 and just one game out of first place in the NL East, the Phillies are in a good spot — especially considering their injury issues. But as a contender, having only one above-average lefty reliever isn’t good enough.
Phillies relief pitchers — both lefties and righties — have struggled to get left-handed batters out this season. It’s an important area for the Phils to clean up as soon as possible, because the numbers are poor.
Phillies RPs vs. LHHs (MLB Rank)
- 4.75 ERA (7th-worst)
- 5.08 FIP (7th-worst)
- .343 OBP (11th-worst)
- .321 wOBA (11th-worst)
- 5.2 BB/9 (6th-worst)
Phillies LHRPs vs. LHHs (MLB Rank)
- 6.10 ERA (4th-worst)
- 6.91 FIP (worst)
- .418 OBP (2nd-worst)
- .363 wOBA (5th-worst)
- 7.8 BB/9 (3rd-worst)
The Phillies bullpen doesn’t get a handed advantage on left-handed hitters nearly enough, because it lacks the depth to do it. When it does get left-on-left matchups, it doesn’t make much of a difference.
The bullpen ranks in or right outside the bottom third of the Major Leagues against left-handed hitters in all five stat categories and both data sets listed above. We’re looking at less than two months of data, which is less than one-third of the season, so the Phils can still turn this thing around.
Adding one pitcher isn’t going to solve the ongoing struggles against lefties, but it would be a start, because this team could use an upgrade to trot out there in high-leverage situations.
Phillies RPs vs. LHHs in High-Leverage Situations (MLB Rank)
- .347 BA (4th-worst)
- .450 OBP (3rd-worst)
- .612 SLG (5th-worst)
- .439 wOBA (3rd-worst)
- 10.50 ERA (4th-worst)
- 8.64 FIP (4th-worst)
The Phillies bullpen has faced 61 batters in high-leverage situations this season — the third-most of any team. It has allowed 14 earned runs, 17 hits (including four home runs) and nine walks, with only eight strikeouts, in those situations.
Left-handed hitters are slashing .347/.450/.612 against the Phillies ‘pen in high-leverage spots. For context, Mike Trout’s career slash-line is .305/.419/.582. Phillies relievers are making opposing lefties as a group look better than Trout in the most critical situations of a game.
The Phillies need their bullpen to consistently get big outs against the game’s top left-handed hitters, especially the ones in their division.
The first and last-place teams in the NL East are separated by just five games. That’s it. Every game against the Braves, Mets, Nationals and Marlins means a lot for the Phillies and the numbers listed below won’t cut it.
Phillies RPs vs. NL East LHHs
- 5.46 ERA
- 6.17 FIP
- 25 K/22 BB
- 5 HR allowed
Here is a list of the NL East’s best lefty bats with their career OPS against righties and lefties, respectively, in parentheses.
- Juan Soto (.987 vs. .889)
- Freddie Freeman (.938 vs. .784)
- Kyle Schwarber (.852 vs. 656)
- Michael Conforto (.878 vs. .716)
- Jeff McNeil (.888 vs. .813)
- Dominic Smith (.798 vs. .734)
- Corey Dickerson (.852 vs. .715)
Soto hits so well against lefties that you can’t expect to get him out just because you go left-lefty on him, but his career OPS against lefties is still almost 100 points lower than it is against righties.
Dickerson’s OPS drops over 130 points against lefties, Freeman’s and Conforto’s drop over 150 and Schwarber’s drops almost 200. Smith and McNeil have more even splits, but like almost all lefty swingers, they hit significantly better against righties.
Having the luxury of deploying dominant bullpen southpaws against them is a game-changer. The Phillies will likely have to go outside the organization to find one and address their lack of left-handed relief depth.
Expect the Phillies to buy at the trade deadline
If the Phillies remain in contention into July — even if they resemble just a fringe playoff team — they’re going to buy before the trade deadline. They have to go for it with a core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in their primes.
Adding elite, shutdown lefty relievers is something contenders do at the deadline. But the truth is, it will be hard for the Phillies to add a bullpen southpaw who fits that description.
There just are not a lot of top-tier lefty relievers who 1.) will be available in a trade or 2.) that the Phillies can afford in a trade. Landing the best of the best will require giving up solid prospects and/or controllable young Major-League talent.
The Phillies don’t have a strong farm system. With the prospect capital they do have in the minors, will they spend it on a lefty reliever when they may have more important needs elsewhere, like in center field or the back end of the rotation?
It’s still May, so the list of teams who are sellers will change and grow by trade season in July. But for now, here are a few realistic (and a couple overly optimistic) lefty options who could be difference-makers in Philly:
Sean Doolittle – Reds
Doolittle was a key member of the 2019 World Series champion Nationals and has posted a 2.42 ERA with a 23/3 K/BB ratio in 20 career postseason games. He’s posted a 132 ERA+ and 112 saves and has held lefties to a .186 batting average and .537 OPS in his 10-year career. Doolittle will be a free agent after the 2021 season, making him a cheap trade candidate if available.
Andrew Chafin and Rex Brothers – Cubs
Chafin has a 2.70 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 20 appearances for the Cubs this season. Lefties have hit under .230 against him in his career and he’s allowed just 18 home runs in 294 2/3 career innings (0.5 HR/9). His contract includes a $5.25 million mutual option for 2022, but there’s a cheap $500K buyout. Chafin could end up being just a rental for the rest of this season, which lowers the price tag.
Brothers, meanwhile, is under club control through 2022. He’s still arbitration-eligible, too, so any team that trades for him won’t have to commit to him beyond this season. Brothers is having an even better season than Chafin. He’s struck out 26 of the 62 batters he’s faced and lefties are hitting .087 with a .430 OPS against him this season.
Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar – Twins
The Twins will have to be completely out of the postseason race for this to be a possibility. But they’re a mess right now with the worst record in the American League.
Rogers is one of the game’s elite relief pitchers, and because he isn’t a free agent until after the 2022 season, he’ll be by far the most expensive of anyone on this list. He’ll also be tough to acquire because if he’s available, almost every single contender will be in on him. Rogers has held lefties to a .206 batting average and .558 OPS in parts of six seasons with the Twins. He has a 23/2 K/BB ratio in 14 appearances in 2021.
Thielbar could be a trade option as well, but he’s controllable through 2024, so the Twins may be hesitant to trade him unless they’re blown away by an offer.
Other LHRP possibilities
- Alex Claudio and Tony Watson (yes, that Tony Watson) – Angels
- Richard Bleier – Marlins
- Paul Fry – Orioles
*All stats updated through games played on Tuesday, May 18
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