4 honest Phillies observations heading into Blue Jays series
Joe Girardi’s in-game management is not good.
Maybe it is Joe Girardi finally managing in the National League again or something else, but his poor success double-switching, using David Hale in high leverage spots — among other weird moves — seem to be getting old quickly.
Just looking at the recent games, there are a few head-scratching double-switches we can point out. The first was against the Atlanta Braves. Scott Kingery — who just shouldn’t be in games right now — was inserted and struck out twice. That same game, Jean Segura — in just his second game back from the injured list — was replaced with rookie Nick Maton to keep Jose Alvarado for the eighth inning. While this decision scratched some heads, it did work somewhat in Girardi’s favor — as the Phillies entered the ninth with a 3-1 lead.
The faith Girardi has entrusted in Hale has arguable costed the Phillies some games. Against the Colorado Rockies, Hale entered with the bases loaded opposite Trevor Story, who launched a grand slam in the eventual 12-2 Phillies loss. In St. Louis, Hale entered in a tie-game, 10th-inning scenario with a runner on second. The run ended up scoring, and the Phillies lost, 4-3. Girardi’s bullpen decisions need to be better. Hale should only be in the game when either the Phillies are up by a lot of runs, or their opposition is down by a lot.
Other Girardi decisions can be questioned, such as keeping Connor Brogdon in after he allowed his first of two three-run home runs in the same outing. The most confusing and baffling Girardi move so far was letting Chase Anderson hit with the bases loaded in the top of the sixth. Luckily, the Phillies still won the game, 6-2.
Luckily for Girardi, poor in-game management is a lot easier issue to fix than clubhouse chemistry, for example. He needs to get better to avoid costing the team any more games.
Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm will be fine.
I know it is hard to see a 58 wRC+ from Alec Bohm and believe when you are told that “he will just be fine.” However, trust me, he will be fine.
Currently, the third baseman ranks in the 92nd percentile for average exit velocity, 84th in max exit velocity, and 86th in hard-hit percentage. In other words, Bohm is hitting the ball very hard and very often. He only has a .260 BABIP as well. He just isn’t getting lucky right now when he hits the ball. Sooner or later, things will come back and Bohm will look more like the player he was in 2020.
However, there are a few concerning things to consider that could hinder some of Bohm’s potential overall success in 2021. He is striking out 26.7 percent of the time and is only walking 4.8 precent of the time. In 2020, his walk rate was more than 4 percent higher (8.9 percent), and his strikeout rate was 20 percent.
Bohm’s defense is another concern — as he ranks in just the 19th percentile in Outs Above Average. Maybe the long-term answer is to move him out of the hot corner. Could he success in the outfield, with his athleticism and arm talent still being utilized? First base would be a much easier transition, but that would probably make the lineup worse long-term.
Maybe Bohm just sticks at third base and figures things out. There is no real right answer — just something to think about in the long-term.
The Phillies bullpen still isn’t good.
Outside of Hector Neris, Sam Coonrod, and Jose Alvarado, the Phillies don’t have an arm over 100 ERA+. While this is better than the lone such bullpen relievable who accomplished this feat in 2020, Jose Alvarez, it still is not exactly good by any means.
Other arms brought in to be dependable, such as Connor Brogdon and Brandon Kintzler, have FIPs over 5 and ERA+’s at 73 and 67, respectively.
If we go down the list of Phillies arms, David Hale has a FIP at 5.68 and a 70 ERA+. JoJo Romero at a 58 ERA+ and an 8.77 FIP. Matt Moore is now moving to a bullpen role, after Vince Velasquez seems to have won a starter spot; the left-hander’s sample size is too early to tell, but I wouldn’t exactly call him good. The Phillies have tried other guys, such as Enyel De Los Santos, who recently blew a three-run save opportunity. He currently has a 4.10 FIP and a 34 ERA+.
This is going to be a bullpen that will struggle to hold leads, especially if Neris, Coonrod, and Alvarado are not available or just don’t have it for the night. This trio has been known to be shaky at times; Neris even blew a save against the Braves.
One piece of good news for the Phillies bullpen is that Archie Bradley is beginning his rehab assignment finally. He will be someone that will make a huge contribution to the bullpen. He was brought in as the one definitely good arm they could rely on every night that he is available.
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