Phillies: Zach Eflin on pace for best season of career

How has Zach Eflin been successful?

Eflin’s early dominance starts with his control, command and efficiency on the mound. Translation: limiting walks.

Eflin walked 48 batters in 163 1/3 innings (2.6 BB/9) in 2019, then 15 in 59 innings (2.3 BB/9) in 2020, and hasn’t been a high-walk guy throughout his career. But this year, he’s really taken his game to a new level — with just two walks allowed in 38 2/3 innings (0.5 BB/9) and none in his last four starts.

The right-hander is getting ahead of hitters with a career-best 69.4 percent first-pitch strike rate, up from 63.7 in 2020. He’s taken full advantage of working ahead in the count. His walk percentage, which dropped from 6.8 percent in 2019 to 6.1 percent in 2020, is down to a microscopic 1.3 percent so far in 2021 — putting Eflin in the 99th percentile among qualifiers in the category.

Eflin’s 17.00 K/BB ratio fourth-best among qualified pitchers, behind Corbin Burnes (INF, 0.00), Gerrit Cole (20.67, 62 K/3 BB) and Walker Buehler (19.50, 39 K/2 BB). Eflin’s 0.47 BB/9 ratio ranks second to only Burnes (0.00 BB/9). Burnes — who is on the COVID-19 injured list — actually fell off the qualifiers list last night, but for this article, we’ll still count him on there.

Those are going to be two tough leaderboards for Eflin to stay on, but it’s encouraging to see the former first-round pick ranked among the game’s elite arms early on.

He’s doing all this while averaging 14.17 pitches per inning, the third-best mark in the majors. Eflin also has the league’s fourth-highest strike rate at 69.9 percent. Both factors have helped him go deep into games, as he’s tossed at least six innings in all six of his outings, with four quality starts.

Phillies RHP Zach Eflin is pitching better than he ever has.

A a time when his average fastball velocity is down from 93.8 mph in 2020 to 92.3 mph in 2021, a difference of 1.5 mph, Zach Eflin is still finding success.

In the current “velocity-over-everything” era, any drop in a pitcher’s heater is perceived as concerning. A drop of more than a full mile per hour is especially noticeable. But, it’s the first week of May. Pitchers are still building up their arm strength and teams don’t want their guys going all out too soon — especially this year as pitchers are tasked with adjusting from a 60-game season, filled with unprecedented changes, back to a 162-game schedule.

It’s too early to look into Eflin’s velocity and know what to make of it, but it’s worth noting. What’s concerning right now is the number of hits and hard contact he’s giving up.

While he has done a great job limiting free passes and working quick innings, Eflin has allowed a league-leading 43 hits — an average of more than one per inning — and has allowed seven or more hits in four of his six outings. He’s also given up a MLB-leading 59 “hard-hit” balls (any batted ball 95+ mph) — nine more than Carlos Martinez, who is second on the list with 50.

Eflin’s hard-hit rate has ballooned from 32.7 percent in 2020 to 48.8 percent in 2021, meaning almost half the contact he’s giving up this season qualifies as hard contact. It’s the seventh-highest overall hard-hit rate among qualified pitchers this season. Eflin’s 16.1 percentage-point increase in that category is the 13th-biggest year-to-year increase among qualified pitchers, including fourth-highest among starting pitchers.

Can he continue to pitch this well while allowing this many hits and an uncomfortable hard-contact rate?

Right now, Eflin can afford to give up more hits than the average starter because he’s walking so few batters. But, if he starts gifting baserunners to opponents with walks, especially early in innings, the hits and hard contact with more men on base will become a glaring issue because they’ll produce more runs.

Trends are important to look at when analyzing numbers in any small sample size. The good news is Eflin’s expected statistics, courtesy of Statcast, aren’t too far off from his actual numbers. Take a look.

Zach Eflin, 2021 Actual vs. Expected Statistics

.279 BA → .288 xBA
.422 SLG → .458 xSLG
.300 wOBA → .351 xwOBA
3.49 ERA → 3.78 xERA

Eflin’s expected numbers are slightly worse than his actual numbers in all four categories, but the differences aren’t staggering. The expected batting average against Eflin is only nine points higher and the expected ERA is barely a quarter of a run higher. There aren’t any outliers when comparing the above data sets — a good sign that Eflin’s success is relatively sustainable, despite the number of hits and hard contact he’s giving up early on.

Naturally, it will benefit Eflin if he can find a way to limit hard contact against him, even more so because he doesn’t have the luxury of stellar defense behind him. The Phillies rank 28th out of 30 teams with -12 defensive runs saved (DRS) and 17th out of 30 with a -0.4 ultimate zone rating (UZR), according to FanGraphs.

That’s not ideal for a contact pitcher like Eflin. He can’t consistently rely on strikeouts the way the game’s elite starters do, nor can he rely on the Phillies’ below-average defense to bail him out.

Eflin also is a victim of opponents owning a .342 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him. It’s the fourth-highest clip in the majors right now, but should improve in Eflin’s favor based on luck alone. Eflin is too good of a pitcher for his previously mentioned 48.8 percent hard-hit rate to stay that high, so there’s optimism there as well.

It’s important that Eflin is among the best in MLB in limiting walks. That is something he can control and will benefit him on the nights where he doesn’t have his best stuff. It’s much easier to get outs when you’re putting fewer runners on base.

The things either mostly or entirely out of his control — the number of hits, hard contact and BABIP against him — are tougher to predict. But, he’s made it work through six starts and his expected stats are encouraging.

Eflin is an X-factor in 2021. The way he’s pitching right now, he’s capable of taking the ball in October and legitimately giving the Phillies a chance to win a postseason game. If the Phils can get there, he’ll be a big reason why.