Phillies: 5 takeaways after first dozen games of 2021 season

The Philadelphia Phillies are 6-6 after their first 12 games — six games at home and away each.

The home games included a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves and winning a pair of games against the New York Mets. Away from Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies fell in two of three to Atlanta, before being swept themselves in a three-game set opposite the Mets. Luckily for the Phillies, they did not have to face perennial Cy Young Award candidate Jacob deGrom on Thursday, thanks to a rain-out.

While 12 games is still a small sample size, here are five takeaways from the start of the season.

1. The Phillies bullpen is actually fine

The Phillies have three relievers with an ERA+ above 100. They all have ERA+’s well above 100, as well as someone in Connor Brogdon who still has not given up a run.

This trio is closer Hector Neris, top lefty Jose Alvarado, and Sam Coonrod — who has really surprised with how he has looked. The Phillies should be very excited about this — especially with Coonrod, since we already expected Neris and Alvarado to be good.

Outside of these top four, there could be some things to worry about. Long relievers Vince Velasquez nor David Hale have a reputation for being good arms out of the bullpen, and JoJo Romero is still very young.

Brandon Kintzler has some evidence of success — especially the last two years, where he combined to have a 173 ERA+ and a 3.99 FIP in 81 1/3 innings pitched. So, it wouldn’t be shocking if he picked things back up from a rough 2021 start.

With all of this said, this is a much better bullpen than 2020 — which is a great sign to helping the Phillies in 2021.

2. The Phillies offense is not performing up to expectations.

Comparing teams, statistically speaking, in the National League East is currently difficult — as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals have only played eight and 10 games. Since the Phillies have played 12 games, it makes their offense rankings a little better.

Taking those teams out, the Phillies have the third-worst offense in baseball behind the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs. The Phillies have scored just 42 runs, which is not something to brag about. It is a good idea to ask why this is, as the Phillies have some guys who profile as really good hitters.

One of the reasons will be covered later. However, focusing on everyone but center field, the Phillies have some issues — and things that we know will get better. The Phillies have four people in their lineup who have an OPS+ below 100 — whoever has played at center, Andrew McCutchen at just 57, Alec Bohm at 74, and Jean Segura at 91.

I think it safe to say that McCutchen, Bohm and Segura will get better. McCutchen needs to hit the ball harder — as he ranks in just the seventh percentile for hard-hit percentage. Bohm could just be in a slump to begin his second season, while Segura really just needs to walk more. As we get more into the season, I would not be shocked if at least two of the three get back up to above league average.

One thing I would be less worried about — but still to take note of — is not enough guys are getting on base. Some of it is them not hitting the ball well or simply not walking enough. Rhys Hoskins has been great to begin the season. However, he could be better — as he has just one walk in these first 12 games. Didi Gregorius, who has also been great, has only one walk.

Both Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn have combined for just one walk. The Phillies need to get on base more. Only three guys in their lineup have an on-base percentage over .300.

3. Not an ideal early showing from Matt Moore and Chase Anderson

The Phillies No. 4 and 5 starters — Matt Moore and Chase Anderson — have some questions to answer, as both have been shaky.

Anderson has an ERA+ above 100 at 102, but has a FIP of 6.69. Baseball Savant numbers don’t help out Anderson neither, ranking him just the 16th percentile for strikeout percentage and 24th percentile for walk percentage. In other words, he is not striking out enough guys — at just 6.00 per 9 innings — and is walking too many batters, 5.00 walks per 9 innings.

Not everything has been bad for Anderson. Guys are not hitting the ball hard when they make contact, as he ranks in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity. Anderson also ranks in the 84th percentile for hard-hit percentage. If he can get some more strikeouts and stop walking batters, things will get a lot better.

Moore has a different case study in his first two starts — with a 54 ERA+, and 5.53 FIP. While that is bad, there are some things to feel good about. Moore is striking out 9.72 batters per 9 innings and ranks in the 75th percentile for chase rate.

The reasons why Moore is struggling are not good for the Phillies. When hitters make contact, they make great contact against him — as he ranks in only the 10th percentile for barrel percentage. His hard-hit percentage, meanwhile, ranks in just the 22nd percentile and his average exit velocity ranks in just the 23rd percentile.

This is going to be a major worry for Moore. Guys are going to hit the ball when he pitches. If they are getting a lot of the baseball and hitting it hard, it is a recipe for disaster. Moore has been a disaster in his first two starts and we know the reasons why.