Phillies: 5 takeaways after first dozen games of 2021 season

2. The Phillies offense is not performing up to expectations.

Comparing teams, statistically speaking, in the National League East is currently difficult — as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals have only played eight and 10 games. Since the Phillies have played 12 games, it makes their offense rankings a little better.

Taking those teams out, the Phillies have the third-worst offense in baseball behind the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs. The Phillies have scored just 42 runs, which is not something to brag about. It is a good idea to ask why this is, as the Phillies have some guys who profile as really good hitters.

One of the reasons will be covered later. However, focusing on everyone but center field, the Phillies have some issues — and things that we know will get better. The Phillies have four people in their lineup who have an OPS+ below 100 — whoever has played at center, Andrew McCutchen at just 57, Alec Bohm at 74, and Jean Segura at 91.

I think it safe to say that McCutchen, Bohm and Segura will get better. McCutchen needs to hit the ball harder — as he ranks in just the seventh percentile for hard-hit percentage. Bohm could just be in a slump to begin his second season, while Segura really just needs to walk more. As we get more into the season, I would not be shocked if at least two of the three get back up to above league average.

One thing I would be less worried about — but still to take note of — is not enough guys are getting on base. Some of it is them not hitting the ball well or simply not walking enough. Rhys Hoskins has been great to begin the season. However, he could be better — as he has just one walk in these first 12 games. Didi Gregorius, who has also been great, has only one walk.

Both Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn have combined for just one walk. The Phillies need to get on base more. Only three guys in their lineup have an on-base percentage over .300.

3. Not an ideal early showing from Matt Moore and Chase Anderson

The Phillies No. 4 and 5 starters — Matt Moore and Chase Anderson — have some questions to answer, as both have been shaky.

Anderson has an ERA+ above 100 at 102, but has a FIP of 6.69. Baseball Savant numbers don’t help out Anderson neither, ranking him just the 16th percentile for strikeout percentage and 24th percentile for walk percentage. In other words, he is not striking out enough guys — at just 6.00 per 9 innings — and is walking too many batters, 5.00 walks per 9 innings.

Not everything has been bad for Anderson. Guys are not hitting the ball hard when they make contact, as he ranks in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity. Anderson also ranks in the 84th percentile for hard-hit percentage. If he can get some more strikeouts and stop walking batters, things will get a lot better.

Moore has a different case study in his first two starts — with a 54 ERA+, and 5.53 FIP. While that is bad, there are some things to feel good about. Moore is striking out 9.72 batters per 9 innings and ranks in the 75th percentile for chase rate.

The reasons why Moore is struggling are not good for the Phillies. When hitters make contact, they make great contact against him — as he ranks in only the 10th percentile for barrel percentage. His hard-hit percentage, meanwhile, ranks in just the 22nd percentile and his average exit velocity ranks in just the 23rd percentile.

This is going to be a major worry for Moore. Guys are going to hit the ball when he pitches. If they are getting a lot of the baseball and hitting it hard, it is a recipe for disaster. Moore has been a disaster in his first two starts and we know the reasons why.

4. Center field is a major problem for the Phillies

Former first-round pick Adam Haseley — after at least a somewhat-promising first 100 games the last two seasons — came out and struggled early this season. He has no walks and an OPS+ of 19. Even Scott Kingery was better than this last season, with a 38 OPS+.

Now with this said, Haseley has been placed on the restricted list for personal reasons. Manager Joe Girardi was asked if he would be back for the year and he simply said that he did not know. These are very concerning things to hear. Let’s just hope everything is OK; you never want to see situations like this.

Backup center fielder Roman Quinn has found a way to be even worse than Haseley, statistically speaking. Quinn has a -23 OPS+ — which I didn’t know was possible — and has struck out 10 times in 11 games. If you value batting average, you would be extremely displeased at his .050 average. Quinn has brought no value to the Phillies … and that is being nice.

Next in this centerfield puzzle is Mickey Moniak, the former No. 1 overall pick back in 2016. He is getting his first real chance in the big leagues after a very good spring training.

Moniak beat out players — including former starter Odubel Herrera and Kingery — who are both at the alternate site. While we don’t know how things are going at the alternate site, we can theorize that Moniak outplayed both.

We have to remember one key thing. With Haseley being on the restricted list, his 40-man spot is free until he returns. So, the Phillies didn’t actually have to create a spot for Herrera. All three of these guys were on fair ground for this situation … and the Phillies went with Moniak.

5. A .500 record against the Braves and Mets is not bad at all.

We have to remember that the National League East is the hardest division in baseball. Other than the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, there is not a lot harder it could get than the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.

The Phillies also are second in the division — with the Braves getting off to a slow 5-8 start and the Nationals looking putrid with a 3-7 start.

These first 12 games have somewhat gone the Phillies way. Next on their schedule are teams like the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants. These are steps down from the Braves and Mets. Not only that, but they both are series at home.

There is no need to panic and pretend the record isn’t at least a little promising from the first dozen games. The Phillies have some worries and some of those will be fixed. They are in a solid position to be a good baseball team in 2021, and potentially be in the race for a Wild Card spot.