Can rising Phillies continue to dominate Braves this season?

The first three 2021 Phillies-Braves games were low-scoring.

The Phillies followed up a 3-2 extra-innings Opening Day win with a 4-0 shutout and 2-1 victory, respectively last Saturday and Sunday — creating a total of just 12 combined runs in the series.

There were more than 30 combined runs scored in eight of the previous nine series between the Phillies and Braves, dating back to 2019 — with the next lowest being 23 combined runs in a September 2019 set. Probable starters Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, and Matt Moore could use more run support this weekend.

Last year, the Phillies offense slugged 20 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .248/.335/.480 slash line against the Braves. Andrew Knapp had the best batting average (.429 in six games), followed by Roman Quinn (.360) and Rhys Hoskins (.343) — both appearing in 10 games. Hoskins’ three homers tied for the most with Andrew McCutchen and Didi Gregorius.

Gregorius produced the most RBI (9), although he hit only .171. McCutchen had eight RBI, while appearing in one less game.

Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin putting up strong performances against the Braves.

Last Saturday’s winning pitcher, Zack Wheeler, is scheduled to start opposite Charlie Morton in Friday’s series opener. Zach Eflin, who has accounted for two of the Phillies’ last six wins against the Braves dating back to last season, is scheduled to start opposite Ian Anderson on Saturday.

Wheeler followed up a rough 6.26 ERA and 1.957 WHIP against the Braves in 2019 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 2020. His 2021 debut was even better — giving up only one hit, with no runs or walks, while striking out 10, across seven innings.

Recent Phillies success against Braves a positive sign

Phillies No. 2 starter Zack Wheeler seems to have benefited from the universal designated hitter not returning this season — helping his own cause by going 2-for-3 with a double and a pair of RBI last weekend.

Wheeler has actually hit well against Atlanta since the start of the 2019 season — 4-for-10, with three RBI in his last five games when batting against them. His two hits and one RBI from 2019, while a member of the New York Mets, came at Truist Park — where this weekend’s series will take place.

Zach Eflin followed up a 6.61 ERA and 2.020 WHIP against the Braves in 2019 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP last year. His second start against Atlanta was better than his first — giving up only one run off of four hits, while striking out eight, in seven innings. On Sunday, he pitched to similarly strong numbers.

While there’s no questioning the talent of the Braves  — who came up one win shy of advancing to the World Series last year — the Phillies’ recent success against the team is encouraging.

It’s been a while since Philadelphia has had the upper hand in this divisional battle, but with the organization seemingly in a win-now mode under President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, now could be the time for change.

An important step toward returning to the top is being able to beat the Braves consistently. Another series win would move that one step closer to reality.