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Phillies: Numbers encouraging for monster Bryce Harper year

By Michael Marcantonini |
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
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Philadelphia Phillies star outfielder Bryce Harper put together a strong offensive campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He hit .268 with 24 extra-base hits, a .960 OPS, and a 159 OPS+, which is 59 percent above league average.

But what if I told you that Harper’s actual stats don’t paint a clear picture of how well he hit the ball last season, and that he’s due for a monster 2021?

Expect big numbers from Phillies star Bryce Harper in 2021.

After sifting through Harper’s ‘expected outcome’ data on Statcast from last season, it’s clear that the 2015 National League MVP was the victim of some unfortunate luck at the dish. Let’s first set the scene with what we’re looking at and why we’re doing it.

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It’s widely accepted that a line-drive hit right at a fielder is more encouraging than a jam-shot blooper that finds the outfield grass for a single. Sure, one is an out and one is a hit, but that’s where ‘expected outcome’ data (explained below in Statcast‘s own words) becomes such a useful tool.

Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player’s season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.

Over time, there’s a greater likelihood that a ball smoked off the bat will lead to more hits than outs, and a weakly hit ball that finds a hole will lead to more outs than hits. These predictive statistics don’t tell the whole story, but they tell some of it, and it gives us added context, in this case, into how well a player is hitting the ball, despite his results. The key phrase from the above quote: “quality of and amount of contact, not results.”

Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Now, back to Harper. Let’s compare three of Harper’s percentage-category stats — batting average (BA), slugging percentage (SLG) and weighted on-base average (wOBA) — with their corresponding expected outcome stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA), which are distinguished with an ‘x’ in front of the stat. League ranks among qualified players are in parentheses.

Bryce Harper, actual vs. expected stats, 2020 season

  • BA: .268 (111th)
  • xBA: .308 (11th)
  • Difference: 40 points (25th biggest)
  • SLG: .542 (39th)
  • xSLG: .656 (2nd)
  • Difference: 114 points (3rd biggest)
  • wOBA: .400 (21st)
  • xwOBA: .453 (3rd)
  • Difference: 53 points (8th biggest)

The differences between Harper’s actual numbers and his expected outcome numbers are significant. In all three categories, the former MVP’s actual results don’t do him justice.

The data tells us that Harper’s .268 batting average ranked 111th among qualified Major League hitters in 2020, but his .308 xBA ranked 11th. That means based on the quality of and amount of contact Harper made last season, he really should’ve hit .308, or 40 points higher than he actually did.

Similar observations can be made from his slugging vs. expected slugging, and weighted on-base vs. expected weighted on-base data. Harper slugged .542 last season, a very respectable mark that ranked 39th among qualified hitters, but his xSLG of .656 ranked second-best in the Majors, trailing only Juan Soto.

Then there’s his .400 wOBA — a stat used to measure how a player reaches base — good for 21st in baseball, while his xwOBA of .453 ranked third-best, behind just Soto and Freddie Freeman. The gaps between his actual and expected numbers in both categories are the third and eighth biggest in the Majors, respectively, further supporting the fact that a lot of the balls Harper put in play for outs, should’ve been hits.

Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies warms up (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies warms up (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

What all this means is that Harper hit the ball as well as anyone in 2020. He ranked 15th in hard hit percentage and sixth in both barrels per plate appearance and barrels per batted ball event percentage. But a combination of what ballpark he was playing in, as well as defensive positioning and production against him, often left him on the unlucky side.

Bryce Harper hit the ball as well as anyone last season.

Want the SparkNotes explanation? These are all good signs for Harper and the Phillies, because sooner or later, he’s due for his actual numbers to more closely resemble his predictive stats. That’s a lot to digest, so I’ll leave you with just one more encouraging Harper stat.

Among players who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances last season, only three had an OPS above .950, a walk percentage above 15 percent, and a strikeout percentage below 20 percent. The list:

  • Freddie Freeman (won NL MVP)
  • Juan Soto (won NL Batting Title)
  • Bryce Harper

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At the end of the day, results are concrete and expected outcome data is just an evaluation tool. Harper didn’t have as good of a season as Freeman or Soto, or guys like Mike Trout, DJ LeMahieu or Jose Abreu, to name a few.

But these predictive stats are used to more accurately evaluate a player’s performance over time, to anticipate either progression or regression.

This Harper case study tells us two things: 1) he hit the ball better and more consistently than his actual numbers show, and 2) his expected outcome stats are an encouraging sign that he’s due for continued progression and more luck at the plate this season.

Whether you like advanced stats or not, they’re a big part of today’s game and are only growing in use, so they’re worth looking into.

And since these stats tell us Bryce Harper is about to ball out in his third season in red pinstripes, the Phillies and their fans should be excited.

light. More. Phillies: Top 3 overreactions following sweep of Braves

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