Projecting the 2021 Philadelphia Phillies Opening Day roster

Who makes the cut for the Phillies roster to start the 2021 season?

Regular season baseball is almost back. Philadelphia Phillies fans will be in the stands this year, and there are a full slate of 162 games to look forward to.

It’s always a beautiful time of year when there are Major League Baseball games on every day for the next seven months, with postseason games in October. Hopefully, Red October will return and the Phillies will end their drought — but it’s difficult to have confidence in the pitching this year.

With Opening Day just a couple of weeks away, it’s time to give our best projection of what the 26-man roster will look like to start the season.

All eyes will be on the President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and General Manager Sam Fuld. How they built this 2021 roster will be the first step toward what hopefully will yield a postseason team. There Is still plenty of work ahead, as they will constantly re-evaluate this team.

Dombrowski and Fuld will have to strongly consider making some moves at the trade deadline for some help, perhaps in the bullpen and starting rotation. The hope is that some of these pitchers will step up. However, the Phillies are relying on young pitchers trying to make names for themselves, as well as veterans attempting to revive their careers.

Even the offense has a few question marks. Who will play center field? Can Scott Kingery finally break out in 2021? What if the starting lineup can’t stay healthy? The offense won’t be much of a concern if they can stay healthy, but again, the roster will be continually re-evaluated throughout the season.

Let’s not waste any more time getting into our roster projection.

Former first overall Phillies pick Mickey Moniak should start in center field.

Outfield (3): Andrew McCutchen, Mickey Moniak, Bryce Harper

It’s reasonable to argue that Mickey Moniak should spend a little bit more time in the minors. At the same time, he is making it difficult for the Phillies to deny him the job with the way he is playing right now. That’s a sentence that some didn’t expect to say just weeks ago, as he has long struggled in the minors. Others kept the faith in the former No. 1 overall pick.

Spring training performance doesn’t always carry over to the regular season, but the Phillies have to reward Moniak for the way he’s been playing as of late. With fellow former first-round pick Adam Haseley out due to a groin injury, Moniak is taking advantage of the opportunity with five extra-base hits and an OPS of 1.257 in 18 spring training at-bats.

Unsurprisingly, Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper will start in left and right field. McCutchen will be almost two years removed from the ACL injury. Since he has arrived in Philly, he has been the table-setter that this team needed. Bryce has been the presence in the middle of the lineup that this team needed, as well, and he will already be entering his third of 13 seasons in red pinstripes. Harper makes opposing pitchers work to set him down and because of that, they have to attack other hitters.

Former Phillies All-Star outfielder Odubel Herrera is trying to resurrect his career, but at the end of the day, the Phillies may want to give Moniak the opportunity over him. The Phillies have not had many first-round picks succeed in the majors; hopefully, Moniak does not follow that trend.

Brad Miller will provide much value to the 2021 Phillies bench

Bench (6): Matt Joyce, Andrew Knapp, Brad Miller, Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Odubel Herrera

Adam Haseley will start the year sidelined and hopefully, return to the starting lineup at some point. Non-roster invitee outfielder Matt Joyce, who has flashed potential this spring, could snag his 26-man roster spot to start the season.

“Bamboo” Brad Miller is back and hopefully, he’ll bring that same luck he brought this team back during a stretch of games in 2019. He is swinging the bat well this spring and with Phil Gosselin gone, Miller can fill the utility role. Miller is currently battling a “little, low strain of the oblique,” according to manager Joe Girardi, and hopes to be ready for Opening Day.

Scott Kingery can move around in the field as well and could work his way into a starting role. However, this spring has not been too kind to him. This season has big implications for Scott. If he can’t get things right, it might be the end of his time in the red pinstripes.

Andrew Knapp will take the field when J.T. needs some rest, and he did a good job of that in 2020. Can the Phillies expect that from him for a full season? They haven’t been able to in the past, so it could have just been a strong 33-game stretch. Let’s hope that’s not true.

Shifting to the outfield, Roman Quinn might be best suited to come off of the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He could win the center field job over Moniak with the way he’s been swinging the bat. If the Phillies want the more experienced player, they can put Quinn out there to start the year. If not, he’ll likely still get playing time and start occasionally.

Lastly, Odubel Herrera has been one of the standouts this spring. He has to continue to earn back the trust of his teammates. For now, he has earned one of the 26 spots. He is also still in the running for the center field job.

Aaron Nola will once again be the go-to Phillies starting pitcher in 2021.

Starting Rotation (5): Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Spencer Howard, Matt Moore

As expected, Aaron Nola leads the pack. The Phillies ace has been fun to watch over the past four seasons, compiling a 46-29 record, 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 106 starts. “Nols” has to be better down the stretch, though. In 27 career starts across September and October, he is 7-12 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 27 home runs allowed.

Zack Wheeler takes the No. 2 spot after an impressive first season in Philly. The Phils only saw him for 11 starts, but if they get the same Wheeler who had seven quality starts last year, they’ll be set up well for a late-season run.

Zach Eflin has a tall task as the No. 3 this year. Just like last year, he will be an “x-factor.” Eflin has improved every year of his major league career. It’ll be about consistency for him. He made some big strides last season under Bryan Price, and he’ll have to carry that into the 2021 season with new pitching coach Caleb Cotham.

With the last two spots, we’ll go with the kid and the vet. Spencer Howard, who just turned 24 last July, will get the nod in his second season. There were plenty of bumps in the road in his rookie year but he also showed flashes of his potential. If he can work on his command and his offspeed pitches, his ceiling is sky-high. It’ll take time and patience but Howard stays level-headed — never too high nor low. It’s not a guarantee that he’ll be able to last the whole season and handle that workload, though. That’s where two other veterans could come in, one of which we have in the rotation.

That leaves 31-year-old Matt Moore, who takes the fifth and final spot after spending one year playing in Japan. Through eight innings of work this spring, Moore has allowed just three hits, one walk, and one earned run while striking out five. The Phillies add a lefty to their rotation to start 2021.

It is worth noting that both Eflin and Howard are dealing with back issues. This five-man projection is under the assumption that both will be healthy come April 1.

Newly acquired reliever Archie Bradley is already a Phillies fan-favorite.

Bullpen (7): Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Hector Neris, David Hale, Jojo Romero, Chase Anderson, Vince Velasquez

While the Phillies bullpen still needs a lot of work, Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado are major improvements from what this team had in 2020. After that, it gets interesting. While Hector Neris has been one of the most inconsistent Phillies relievers, he is also one of the most experienced. It would be a shock to see the Phillies front office let him go.

Former Yankee right-hander David Hale also brings much-needed experience to this bullpen. He only made six 2020 appearances in red pinstripes, but proved to be reliable during his time in New York. The Phillies have to see more of the 33-year-old. He has earned another shot with his work in spring training thus far.

JoJo Romero had his moments in his 2020 rookie campaign. Most will remember him for smashing an energy drink can on his arm before heading out to the mound. JoJo had a few bad outings that skewed his numbers, but there is potential to work with. He held opponents scoreless in eight of his 12 appearances. There is plenty of room for improvement, but also a reason to be excited.

Chase Anderson and Vince Velasquez round out this group. Anderson is still neck-and-neck with Matt Moore for the fifth spot in the rotation; that may not matter if Eflin and Howard remain sidelined. Long-term, Anderson might be better off in a bullpen role at this point in his career. His 12.86 ERA in September was a concerning way to finish out 2020.

Velasquez moves to the bullpen, which should’ve been done a while ago. He has the stuff to be a late-inning reliever and this might be his last shot with the Phils.