Phillies need Aaron Nola to pitch like a true ace in 2021

Looking at the downside of Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola

The ace of a starting staff is a pitcher who can be relied on for momentum when the team is struggling. An ace should be able to stop a losing streak when called upon. Nola has not consistently lived up to that title in key late-season starts over the past three years.

2018

The Phillies lost 20 of 26 games during the beginning stretch in September 2018. Nola took the loss in a disappointing 8-1 effort against the Chicago Cubs on September 2, 2018, as the slide was beginning. He also allowed three runs in the first inning of a 5-1 loss against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals in a critical matchup on September 12, 2018.

These two starts looked like minor anomalies in an otherwise great season in which Nola was an integral contributor to a team that competed in the NL East for the majority of the season.

2019

Nola’s struggles late in the season were looked at as more of a trend after the Phillies lost each of his final seven starts of the 2019 season. Kapler elected to start Nola on four days of rest over that span to get one extra start from his de facto ace on the final weekend of the season.

The Phillies sat at 72-65 entering Nola’s start against the Cincinnati Reds on September 4, 2019. The Reds tagged Nola for 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work in the first loss of a crucial 22 game stretch where the Phillies posted a lackluster 7-15 record and wasted their chances to earn a wild-card berth.

Nola’s performance was up and down in his final four starts, but he failed to legitimize a role as an ace that the Phillies sorely needed.

2020

The top end of the starting staff for Philadelphia was a team strength in the shortened 2020 season, as Zack Wheeler sparkled with a sub-3 ERA alongside Nola’s modest 3.28 number.

However, the 2020 squad’s character came into question as they faltered yet again during the final month of the season.

Nola took the hill on September 6, 2020, in an embarrassing 14-1 blowout at the hands of the New York Mets, who were helped by a stellar start from their ace Jacob deGrom.

The incredibly flawed Phillies team still had a chance to earn a postseason berth with eight games remaining due to the expanded MLB postseason field. Nola went 0-2 and allowed 6 ER in only 9.2 innings in his final two starts while the Phillies limped to a 1-7 record and missed the postseason for the ninth consecutive time.

A Look Around the National League East

Nola is a quality starting pitcher in the major leagues, but he is not currently at the level of the game’s elite. The NL East, considered by many to be the best division in baseball, is home to top-level starters that Nola will need to match if the Phillies plan to contend for the division.

DeGrom is arguably the best starting pitcher in the game. He followed up consecutive NL Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019 with another stellar performance in the shortened 2020 campaign, finishing with an ERA below 2.50 for the third consecutive season. He is a core piece for a revamped Mets team promising to provide stiff competition for the Phillies.

Nationals starter Max Scherzer is not considered to be in his prime at age 35, but he is a successful veteran starter who has pitched at an elite level for prolonged periods in his big league career and is more than capable of taking the ball in a big game for the Nats.

In 2020, Scherzer ended his seven-year streak finishing in the top five of his respective leagues’ Cy Young voting. However, many expect a strong rebound now that the 60 game stretch is behind him.

Atlanta Braves starters Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton bring legitimate depth to the Braves rotation. While none of the three pitchers distance themselves from Nola’s caliber, the Braves can also rival the top end of the Phillies rotation.

The Miami Marlins don’t boast the same talent level as their division opponents, but their starting rotation holds the potential to give the Phillies future headaches throughout the development of young starters Sixto Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara.

The Phillies don’t need Nola to win the NL Cy Young this season or to pitch at the level of deGrom. However, they need him to pitch consistently like a legitimate frontend of the rotation pitcher from start to finish.

The “ace” of the Phillies staff will need to be able to handle top competition in big games down the stretch if the team has hopes to win the division.