Phillies: Who has the best chance to start in center field?

Last week, the Philadelphia Phillies center field competition saw a shakeup when former first-round pick Adam Haseley suffered a moderate groin strain — sidelining him for the remainder of spring training.

Now, it appears just four players remain in the running for the starting role — Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, and Odubel Herrera. Here is a percentage odds breakdown that I think each player has at winning the job, with the only rule that the odds add up to 100:

Scott Kingery might be the most likely starting Phillies center fielder in 2021.

Veteran utility player Scott Kingery should have about a 50 percent chance to win the job, with his experience, ability, and the fact that the Phillies want him to get at-bats. He should win this job.

The biggest question around Kingery is, can even come close to living up to his “top prospect” status he once had? With 2020 at just a 37 wRC+, you would think he shouldn’t even come close to even being the second favorite — but he had some bad luck as well. Kingery battled the COVID-19 virus last season and could never get on track. For the most part, we have not seen great things from him since a stretch in 2019.

If Kingery wants to rebound and be the player the Phillies want him to be, then he needs to win this competition — especially since he’s the clear favorite.

If Kingery can’t, the Phillies will be looking at another “Brock Holt” type of player, which isn’t exactly all that bad if you take away the “top prospect” status from him — but not something the Phillies want. So far this spring, Kingery is batting 2-for-11 with a homer and a walk.

Roman Quinn, 20%

Roman Quinn having a one-in-five chance to win the job just feels right. While he is certainly the worst baseball player out of the four, he is someone who has plenty of experience that didn’t go great —but not terrible — for his standards under Joe Girardi.

In 2020, Quinn platooned with Adam Haseley. Theoretically, with Haseley being injured, Quinn should slide up and be the full-time starter until he returns. But, there are two problems with that logic — Kingery will almost certainly be better and Mickey Moniak is playing great baseball.

Quinn has played four games so far this spring and is 3-for-9. On Sunday against the Yankees, he went 1-for-2 with his hit being a swinging bunt. The one good thing Quinn can bring is his old-school speed, but is that enough to give himself the chance to be a starter? The Phillies may or may not think so.

While Quinn will be tied for the second-best odds, they can get worse if in two weeks Moniak continues to play well. To be perfectly honest, his chances of making the team aren’t exactly 100% either.

Odubel Herrera, 20%

While Odubel Herrera shouldn’t be in this competition, I believe he is tied for the second-best odds to win the starting centerfield job.

Herrera was suspended two years ago after a domestic violence incident. He has not played in the majors since May 2019 and has since apologized to his teammates for what happened. Now off the 40-man roster, Herrera was not invited to the team’s alternate training site for the 2020 season, but received an invitation to partake in spring training mini-camp — the equivalent of minor-league spring training in a normal year.