Phillies: Who has the best chance to start in center field?

Last week, the Philadelphia Phillies center field competition saw a shakeup when former first-round pick Adam Haseley suffered a moderate groin strain — sidelining him for the remainder of spring training.

Now, it appears just four players remain in the running for the starting role — Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, and Odubel Herrera. Here is a percentage odds breakdown that I think each player has at winning the job, with the only rule that the odds add up to 100:

Scott Kingery might be the most likely starting Phillies center fielder in 2021.

Veteran utility player Scott Kingery should have about a 50 percent chance to win the job, with his experience, ability, and the fact that the Phillies want him to get at-bats. He should win this job.

The biggest question around Kingery is, can even come close to living up to his “top prospect” status he once had? With 2020 at just a 37 wRC+, you would think he shouldn’t even come close to even being the second favorite — but he had some bad luck as well. Kingery battled the COVID-19 virus last season and could never get on track. For the most part, we have not seen great things from him since a stretch in 2019.

If Kingery wants to rebound and be the player the Phillies want him to be, then he needs to win this competition — especially since he’s the clear favorite.

If Kingery can’t, the Phillies will be looking at another “Brock Holt” type of player, which isn’t exactly all that bad if you take away the “top prospect” status from him — but not something the Phillies want. So far this spring, Kingery is batting 2-for-11 with a homer and a walk.