After five seasons with division-rival New York Mets, right-hander Zack Wheeler signed last offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies to give the team a legitimate one-two punch at the front of the starting rotation.
Although 2020 was a strange season for Wheeler in many ways, including a fluke fingernail injury while putting on his pants, his performance on the field was generally stellar.
At first glance at some of Wheeler’s statistics from this past season, he appeared to underperform. His strikeouts per nine innings were only 6.7, compared to a career mark approaching a strikeout per inning. Wheeler also led the league in hit batters (7). However, Wheeler allowed only three home runs and 16 walks in 71 innings — both rates being career lows. In addition, he posted an ERA of 2.95, also a career-low.
One may argue that those numbers are from a relatively small sample size of 11 starts, but they are encouraging signs that Wheeler can be all the Phillies expect him to be in 2021.
Predicting how Zack Wheeler will fare in his second season with the Phillies
This season, Wheeler should still benefit from the run support of nearly 6 per game that he had in 2020. In addition, the bullpen appears to be significantly improved, which should allow less inherited runners to score and hold more leads. The end result should be the highest win total of Wheeler’s career. His previous best was a 12-win season in 2018.
Looking at Wheeler’s past performance, he posted ERAs below four every season, with the exception of 2017 — when he lost command of his pitches and got lit up by the long ball. It must be noted, however, that 2017 was Wheeler’s first season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015.
Wheeler will be second in what should be an improved starting rotation — behind Aaron Nola and in front of Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, and Chase Anderson. Right-handers Spencer Howard and Vince Velasquez are also in the mix for time in the starting rotation.
If you project Wheeler’s 2020 season over the course of 162 games, he would have had 11 wins in 191 2/3 innings. I expect the win total to be a little higher, more in the 14 to 15 range. He’s a steady 190-inning per season pitcher and his strikeout rate should be closer to his career mark. Let’s go with a 14-9 season, 195 innings, 185 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.25.