What will the Philadelphia Phillies rotation look like in 2021?

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With the top of the Philadelphia Phillies starting pitching rotation locked down, they hope to similarly sure up the final spots. Amid the recent free-agent frenzy that saw the Phillies re-sign catcher J.T. Realmuto and shortstop Didi Gregorius, they also made a low-risk, but potentially high-reward move when they signed free-agent pitcher Matt Moore to a one-year deal. On Wednesday, the Phillies added even more depth by signing another one-year deal with fellow veteran Chase Anderson.

The signings were intriguing — raising attention to the team acknowledging and addressing the need for back-end rotation depth. While starting pitching was far from the biggest issue the Phillies suffered from in 2020, there was and remains plenty of room for improvement. Now, two weeks before the start of spring training, this begs the question — what might the 2021 Phillies starting rotation look like?

So, what’s written in stone for the 2021 Phillies rotation?

It feels like a foregone conclusion at this point, but barring an injury or something unforeseen shaking out, the top of the Phillies rotation in 2021 will be:

Aaron Nola
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin

That’s about as solid of a one-two punch at the top of a rotation as you could hope for. On his best days, Nola has shown the ability to be an ace at the MLB level. His floor is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. Wheeler has also proved he’s the real deal and fans can look forward to seeing him pitch a full season with the Phillies in 2021.

Eflin can be a bit of a wild card though. He’s undeniably made real strides since he broke into the league in 2016, lowering his ERA from the previous year in each of the last three seasons. However, he’s also struggled with consistency.

In 2018, Eflin began the first half of the season with a 7-2 record and 3.15 ERA, however, he collapsed in the second half with a 5.76 ERA — while nearly doubling his home runs allowed from six to 10. The 2019 season was a similar story, albeit to a far lesser degree. Eflin went 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 starts to begin the season, but had a brutal July where he went 0-4 in four outings with an 11.88 ERA. He was able to rebound nicely to end the season and carried that success into 2020, which proved to be the best of his career.

In 2020, Eflin posted the second-lowest BB/9, lowest ERA, and the highest K/9 of his career. Coming up will be his age-27 season; there is reason to believe Eflin is beginning to put it all together. If he can give the Phillies quality innings and continue to improve, they could have a fantastic top of the rotation.

Matt Moore #45, formerly of the San Francisco Giants (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

So, who might round out the final rotation spots?

With Nola, Wheeler, and Eflin locked in at the top of the rotation, that leaves a minimum of two rotation spots open. The Phillies have a host of arms who will fight for innings, and while some candidates feel more likely than others, everyone will be given an equal chance to compete — and nothing is guaranteed. Here are some of the most likely candidates:

Spencer Howard saw his first taste of MLB in 2020 and flashed the potential that made him one of the top prospects in the organization. However, more often than not, he struggled. His 5.92 ERA and 1.644 WHIP were concerning, but that said, six starts is a very small sample size. He also recently ranked 42nd on MLB.com’s top 100 prospect rankings for 2021. The Phillies hope Howard makes good on his potential and becomes a rotation fixture for the next decade.
Vince Velasquez will be back in red pinstripes, perhaps to the dismay of many fans. He has thrown 501 innings over 99 starts and 112 games since coming over in the Ken Giles trade back in December 2015. Whereas Eflin has consistently improved year over year, Velasquez has flat out regressed. After lowering his ERA from 5.13 in 2017 to 4.85 in 2018, it has increased in consecutive seasons since. In 2020, it ballooned to a career-worst 5.56.
After spending all of 2020 pitching effectively in Japan, Matt Moore will also be given every opportunity to seize a rotation spot. One area where Moore has an advantage is that he’s a lefty. The Phillies have been in desperate need of a left-handed starting pitcher since they dealt Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers in 2015. How desperate? Well, since 2016, just 6% of all Phillies games have been started by a lefty. Not great in terms of balance.
Also recently signed to a one-year, MLB deal, right-hander Chase Anderson was shelled last season, posting a -0.5 WAR and 7.22 ERA with the Toronto Blue Jays in 10 appearances. Before that, he spent four very effective seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers, throwing 590 innings over 112 stars for the Brew Crew from 2016-2019. He had a 3.83 ERA and won 38 games, although he did lead the NL in home runs allowed in 2018 with 30. The Phillies are banking that Anderson can return to form, eat innings, and keeping them into games.
Bringing in free-agent Ivan Nova to a minor-league deal was another low-risk, high-reward singing. Nova was hammered by opposing hitters in 2020 to the tune of an 8.53 ERA. However, from 2016-2019, Nova made 120 starts across three different teams and boasted a 43-43 record with a 4.31 ERA in 697 innings. He will be given an invite to spring training and has familiarity with manager Joe Girardi from their time together with the New York Yankees — where Nova spent the first 6 and a half seasons of his career.

It’s always possible that the Phillies go out and sign someone like Cole Hamels, James Paxton, or Taijuan Walker in free agency, but I wouldn’t bet on it at this point — following the Anderson and Moore signings. A far more likely option is that the team relies on another in-house arm, such as Ranger Suarez or Adonis Medina, before bringing in another major-league free agent.

Zach Eflin #56 of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) /

A way-too-early 2021 Phillies starting rotation prediction

I see the rotation shaking out something like this to begin the 2021 season:

Aaron Nola
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin
Spencer Howard
Matt Moore
Chase Anderson

To address the elephant in the room, I think it’s likely the Phillies will employ a six-man rotation this season. Coming off the 60-game sprint and re-adjusting to a full 162-game schedule is going to be bumpy. Teams will have to consider pitch counts, innings, and days off in ways they hadn’t before, so they don’t overwork their starters too early and end up being dealt a rash of injuries when it comes time to chase a pennant. One way to do that is to give everyone an extra day by using as many starters possible, while still trying to get your ace the ball once a series.

With a flurry of new signings, Spencer Howard feels like has gone from near-lock to begin the season in the rotation, to something of a question mark. Maybe I am higher on him than most, but I still think he will be given every opportunity to start the season in the rotation. The Phillies have a lot invested in him, and he’s flashed the ability to deliver on his obvious potential. They have nothing to gain by sending him down, especially with Minor-League Baseball still without a start date.

That said, Howard has battled arm injuries over the last couple of years and pitched less than 25 innings in 2020. If he isn’t healthy it wouldn’t make sense to rush him. Regardless of whether he opens the season in the rotation or not, expect the Phillies to be careful and keep him on a strict pitch count.

After Howard, the rotation could shake out any number of ways. I am banking on Matt Moore to beat out everyone else on the roster. Last season in Japan, Moore threw 85 innings, a mark that would have led Major League Baseball. Coming off a pandemic-shortened season, teams will be worried about how well-prepared and conditioned their starting pitchers will be.

Moore surely helped himself by throwing so many innings last season. He is also a former All-Star and top prospect, though he hasn’t consistently pitched like it since 2014. In 15 games in Japan, last season Moore went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA, striking out 98 in 85 innings. If he can translate that back to MLB, his upside could be far higher than the other names seeking a spot in the rotation.

I see Chase Anderson rounding out a six-man rotation. His $4 million major-league deal likely ensures he won’t be cut. Despite his astronomically high ERA, he did have a career-best 10.2 K/9 in 2020. He’s proved he can be a reliable innings-eater who can strike people out in the past, something the Phillies will surely need in 2021.

Vince Velazquez feels ripe to earn a spot in the bullpen and get the occasional spot start. The Phillies are lacking a reliable long-reliever, and while “reliable” may not come to mind when fans think of Velazquez, he has experience coming out of the bullpen and starting. Looking around the roster, he’s by far the most likely candidate to fill the swing-starter/long-reliever role.

Ivan Nova is a non-roster invite to spring training and already has an uphill battle ahead of him — regardless whether the Phillies go with a five or six-man rotation. Ranger Suarez and Adonis Medina both entered the offseason as trendy names, but they too will face stiff competition. Look for Suarez to come out of the bullpen again this season.

More. Phillies eyeing 3 veterans for potential bench upgrade. light

Regardless of who makes the starting rotation, one thing that will be crucial for the Phillies will be depth. The biggest issue they had in 2020 wasn’t starting their games, it was ending them. While they have made some attempts to address the bullpen, one of the biggest ways they can improve in that department would be if the starters can pitch deeper into games.

If the starting rotation can click and chew up innings, the 2021 season could be a whole different ballgame for the Fightin’ Phils.

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