Philadelphia Phillies: 5 bold predictions for 2021 season

Five bold Philadelphia Phillies predictions for the 2021 season

Now is a good time for baseball fans to look ahead — with the new year right around the corner and a new season inching closer. Here are five bold predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies next season — their second under manager Joe Girardi.

5. Zack Wheeler will be named a Cy Young Award finalist.

New Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham believes that Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin are each Cy Young Award contenders. For Wheeler, he finished 12th in Cy Young voting this season, his first time receiving votes. With a career year in his inaugural Phillies campaign, 2021 could very well see him be named one of the three finalists for the top pitching honor.

Wheeler posted a career-best 2.92 ERA and .667 win-loss percentage, which ranked eighth and sixth respectively in the National League. That ERA and his 2.0 walks per nine innings were best among Phillies starters, while his team-leading 2.9 WAR ranked second among NL pitchers. He could’ve had a chance at the Cy Young this year, where he had a 4-0 record, 2.20 ERA, and 1.089 WHIP through his first seven games, before struggling during his final four outings.

Wheeler seems to be at a good spot in his career. He’s in the second year of a five-year deal with the Phillies, which should mean less pressure, as he’s had time to get used to the team and doesn’t have to worry about free agency.

He also has four seasons under his belt since returning from Tommy John surgery, setting him up for a similar story to Hyun Jin Ryu, who missed nearly two seasons due to injury. Ryu’s numbers weren’t great in his first year back in 2017, but he did well in a 2018 campaign that saw him miss some time, before becoming a Cy Young finalist in each of the last two seasons, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays.

Pitchers have seemingly snuck into the Cy Young picture before and Wheeler’s impressive 2020 performance, plus his contract position and new pitching coach to work with, put him in a good spot to be a finalist in 2021.

4. The Phillies will have a winning record.

While the Phillies having a winning record shouldn’t be a bold prediction, the fact that they’ve come up short the past few seasons, with the players they’ve had, shows that this is not a certainty. In 2018, the team entered the month of September at 10 games above .500 and saw that margin shrink to five games entering a four-game series at the Atlanta Braves.

A nine-game losing streak between the Braves and Colorado Rockies sealed their fate, with two wins against the Braves not enough to get them back to even, ending the season with an 80-82 record. The next year saw a similar story, with a 78-72 record, before they lost nine of their last 12 games. They entered their finale at a game above .500 before losing at home to the Miami Marlins, ending their season at 81-81.

With the addition of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to a roster already boasting names like Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Aaron Nola, it didn’t seem possible that the Phillies would fail to have a winning record in a shortened 2020 season. With a 27-25 record and about a week to go, the team lost seven of their last eight games to solidify another losing year, with a 28-32 record.

The last time the Phillies had a winning season was 2011, when they finished the year at 102-60. But, there’s reason to believe that trend will change. The National League East is emerging as one of the more challenging divisions. With 40 of 60 games against division rivals this year, the odds were stacked against them.

The league hopes to have a full season, with the usual mix of games, which could help the Phillies with their strength of schedule. Interleague play will still feature the NL East against the AL East, but some of the weaker National League opponents should help.

While the Phillies have a roster that should be capable of a winning record, that hasn’t been the case. The team is overdue for a finish above .500 and a broader schedule could help them get there.

2. Bryce Harper will lead the NL in both walks and on-base percentage.

For the second time in three years, Bryce Harper led the majors in walks in 2020. Going back to his MVP season in 2015, he had the second-most walks in the National League and led the majors with a .460 on-base percentage.

In fact, for National League rankings, Harper was in the top-five for walks in five of the last six seasons and top-ten for on-base percentage in three of the last six seasons. His 49 walks during the 2020 season came just shy of his 51 hits, while his .420 on-base percentage ranked fourth in the National League.

It appears like pitchers are still trying to work around Harper, despite a sub-.270 batting average in four of the last five years. Maybe it’s not a matter of pitcher strategy and it’s Harper being a secret genius at drawing walks? It doesn’t seem like his recent hitting slumps have stopped the number of bases on balls issued to him. During the 2020 season, he had at least one walk in 35 of 58 games, at least one hit in 36 games and at least one hit and one walk in 21 games.

Harper’s batting average has gotten better in his first two seasons with the Phillies and he continually ranks high in walks, so it’s a little surprising that he’s yet to lead the league in both walks and on-base percentage in the same year.

If he can continue to draw walks at the same level and can improve his batting average slightly, 2021 could change that.

1. Hector Neris will start the season as Phillies closer.

The free-agent market has been slow-moving this offseason, with uncertainty surrounding the novel coronavirus pandemic and its effect on team revenue, with the Phillies reportedly seeing a $145 million loss this past season.

Even with new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, the team’s spending may be significantly reduced and much of the public attention has focused on the hopes of re-signing J.T. Realmuto. There are notable relievers on the free-agent market, but there’s a good chance that it will be Hector Neris who starts the 2021 season as the Phillies’ closer, with the team signing him to a one-year contract before the non-tender deadline.

Neris’ inconsistency has shown throughout his career, with a 3.01 ERA and 26 saves in 2017, a 5.10 ERA and 11 saves in a 2018 season that saw him sent to the minors at one point, and a 2.93 ERA and 28 saves in 2019. Coming off of that good 2019 season, where those 28 saves ranked seventh in the National League, it was once again Neris who started 2020 as closer. Once again, he was inconsistent. Neris had two saves, three blown saves, and a 9.95 ERA in his first nine games before recording three saves, no blown saves, and a 1.29 ERA in his next 14 outings. His final game of the season saw two runs surrendered to the Tampa Bay Rays.

It wasn’t only his poor early-season performance that saw him lose the primary closer role, with Brandon Workman acquired via trade with the Boston Red Sox. With Workman now in free agency and Neris finishing the year off strong, plus the tighter free agent budget, don’t be surprised to see the often-criticized Neris start the season as Phillies closer.