Phillies: Seranthony Dominguez among 7 non-tender candidates
6. Zach Eflin
Considering the Phillies have at least one hole to fill in their starting rotation this offseason to replace Jake Arrieta, it would be unlikely for them to roll the dice with Zach Eflin and try to non-tender him to eventually re-sign on a cheaper deal.
The 26-year-old right-hander has been among the most reliable pitchers on the Phillies’ staff in recent seasons and is believed to have yet to unlock his full potential on the mound.
Since his June 2016 debut, Eflin has combined to go 29-33 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, and 388-129 strikeouts-to-walks ratio spanning 89 appearances, 84 starts, and 478 innings. This past season, the Orlando, Florida, native went 4-2 with career-best figures in ERA (3.97), WHIP (1.271), SO9 (10.7), and SO/W (4.67).
The Phillies acquired Eflin from the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2014, along with fellow prospect Tom Windle, in exchange for franchise hits leader Jimmy Rollins. This trade is a rare case in which they ultimately acquired solid, big-league talent in exchange for one of their 2008 World Series champions. The same cannot be said for the Chase Utley trade, for example, when the Phillies acquired Darnell Sweeney and minor-leaguer John Richy in the August 2015 swap.
The Phillies non-tendering Eflin at this stage of the offseason and his career would be a disappointment. Even new pitching coach Caleb Cotham believes Eflin, along with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, are strong Cy Young Award candidates in 2021 and beyond.
Consider Eflin — who is projected to earn between $3 million and $5 million in arbitration — a lock to be tendered a contract.
5. David Hale
If parting ways with David Hale from the disastrous 2020 Phillies bullpen is among the offseason plans to revamp it, consider the likelihood for the right-handed reliever to be non-tendered as strong.
The Phillies acquired the seven-year veteran from the New York Yankees in August in exchange for minor-league pitcher Addison Russ, who was invited to the team’s big-league summer camp roster.
Hale made just six appearances in red pinstripes to finish the season, going 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.545 WHIP, and 7-1 strikeouts-to-walk ratio spanning 11 innings. The Phillies also used him twice as a doubleheader starter in the latter half of the twin bill; the team coincidentally won one of the games 8-7, and lost the other 7-8.
The 33-year-old Hale has already pitched for five different teams in his career, first the Atlanta Braves (2013-14), followed by the Colorado Rockies (2015-16), Minnesota Twins (2018), Yankees (2018-20), and Phillies (2020).
Overall in his career through 101 appearances and 22 starts, he has gone 13-10 with a 4.23 ERA, three saves, 27 games finished, and a 1.437 WHIP ratio. Although Hale seems to be versatile, the Phillies could ultimately decide to allocate their dollars elsewhere for 2021.
4. Rhys Hoskins
Along with righty starter Zach Eflin, first baseman Rhys Hoskins is another likely player on this list of seven to be tendered a contract for the 2021 season.
Through 404 career games and 1,762 plate appearances, Hoskins has slugged 87 doubles, five triples, 91 home runs, and 255 RBI, along with 269 walks. In 2019, the Sacramento, California, native led the National League with 116 walks; Hoskins slashed just .226/.364/.454 that year, but bounced back in 2020 with a .245/.384/.503 slash line, along with 10 homers and 26 RBI through 41 games and 185 plate appearances.
Hoskins is projected to earn between the $3 million and $5 million range in arbitration; even that figure is a bargain for the slugger. Barring a trade or injury, he will be the team’s Opening Day starter in 2021 at first base.
3. Andrew Knapp
As it currently stands, catcher Andrew Knapp is the starting catcher for the Phillies, with J.T. Realmuto a free agent becoming more and more unlikely to re-sign as each day passes.
Projected to earn a little more than $1 million in arbitration, the four-year veteran would surely be a cheap everyday player; however, the Phillies would likely look to the free agent catcher pool to sign a veteran starter, if Realmuto happens to sign elsewhere.
Knapp had a career-best season in 2020, slashing .278/.404/.444 with four doubles, one triple, two home runs, 15 RBI, 15 walks, and just 19 strikeouts spanning 33 games and 89 plate appearances. In the field, he committed only two errors across 233 chances as catcher, and no errors spanning six chances at first base. While Knapp logged the second-most passed balls among National League catchers in 2020 (4), he also turned the fifth-most double plays (2).
Debuting in April 2017, Knapp has a career .230/.337/.350 slash line with 27 doubles, 11 home runs, and 51 RBI across 247 games and 668 plate appearances.
If Knapp is non-tendered ahead of the December 2 deadline, that should be a strong sign for Phillies fans that Realmuto could be coming back. Rafael Marchan has impressed and likely would then be the backup.
2. Hector Neris
Earlier this offseason, the Phillies declined a $7 million club option for Hector Neris; therefore, if they do tender him a contract, they will try to re-sign him for less than that figure.
On paper, the seven-year veteran Neris had a disappointing 2020 season. Across 24 appearances and 13 games finished, he blew three save opportunities, yielded 15 runs (11 earned) in 21 2/3 innings, and posted a career-worst 2.08 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.
Neris is projected to earn as much as $6.4 million in arbitration; given the would-be salary commitment, the Phillies could very well decide to part ways with the Dominican Republic native, or give him a chance to rebound under their new pitching coach.
1. Vince Velasquez
Vince Velasquez remains as the last remaining piece from the December 2015 trade that sent closer Ken Giles to the Houston Astros. It seems as if he has been held onto longer than most other pitchers would have, just because the Phillies want at least some return on investment from the swap.
MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki thinks Velasquez “might be on the bubble,” as he made $3.6 million in 2020, “but the Phils could go in another direction, even though they are remarkably short on starting pitching depth.”
This past season, the six-year veteran struggled with a 5.56 ERA, 1.559 WHIP, and 21 earned runs allowed spanning 34 innings, seven starts and two relief appearances. Overall in red pinstripes, Velasquez has gone 27-34 with a 4.76 ERA across 112 appearances, 99 of which were starts.
Considering the Phillies’ new pitching coach Caleb Cotham is on board, the Phillies may try to give Velasquez one more chance to find his place and succeed on their big-league roster. Velasquez did strike out 46 batters in 34 innings this past season. Talent is there; he just has not been able to translate that success through other statistical categories — ERA being among them.
It will be interesting to see which, if any, of the Phillies’ seven arbitration-eligible players will be non-tendered ahead of the December 2 deadline.
Right-handed relievers Blake Parker and Heath Hembree, southpaw Adam Morgan, and infielder Phil Gosselin were also arbitration-eligible, however, they were outrighted off of the 40-man roster and elected free agency in late October. Morgan recently had surgery to repair his left elbow’s flexor tendon and will miss a significant portion of the 2021 season.
The Phillies offseason continues on — quietly, so far.
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