Predicting how 2020 Phillies pitchers will do in free agency

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Several 2020 Phillies pitchers are now free agents; here’s what we predict they will earn this offseason.

Free agency is well underway, and several pitchers from the 2020 Philadelphia Phillies roster are among players seeking a new contract for the next season.

The next few months of the Major League Baseball offseason are sure to be unpredictable, as owners try to cut costs following the pandemic-shortened season. Nevertheless, I’ll try my best to predict the contracts these pitchers who recently donned red pinstripes will get in the free-agent market.

Jake Arrieta

Right-hander Jake Arrieta was nothing but a disappointment to Phillies fans, so it’s easy to forget that he’s actually still a perfectly serviceable No. 5 starter. To determine what Arrieta could make as a free agent, I’ll compare him to two similar free agents from last offseason — Homer Bailey and Gio Gonzalez.

Bailey signed with the Twins on a one-year, $7 million contract. He was a year younger than Arrieta is now; his 2019 season was slightly better than Arrieta’s 2020 campaign. However, over the past three seasons, Arrieta has been the superior player.

At age 34, the same age Arrieta is now, Gonzalez signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the White Sox. Gonzalez pitched better than Bailey in 2019, but his playing time was limited by an arm injury. Clearly, this injury prevented him from securing a bigger contract, because from 2017-2019 he was a far better pitcher than Bailey (or Arrieta).

My gut tells me that Arrieta will earn less money than those comparable free agents did. His has less upside than either of them did, and his steady, year-by-year decline since 2016 is concerning. Still, he will be pitching in a major league rotation in 2021.

My prediction: One year, $3 million

David Robertson

This is a tough one. From 2009-2018, RHP David Robertson was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. By the start of next season, he should be fully recovered from the elbow injury that kept him out for almost all of 2019 and 2020.

On the other hand, many pitchers just aren’t the same when they return from Tommy John surgery, especially players in their mid-to-late 30s (Robertson will be in his age-36 season next year). That’s an age at which many pitchers are already in decline, even when they aren’t coming back from major arm surgery.

I think Robertson’s reputation and past performance will be enough to earn him a major league contract, but it won’t be for much money. He’ll earn more next season from his Phillies buyout ($2 million) than he will on whatever contract he signs as a free agent.

My prediction: 1 year, $1 million

Jose Alvarez

Left-hander Jose Alvarez has been a consistently good reliever throughout his six years in the big leagues. He’s never going to be an All-Star or a closer, but he’s the kind of guy who would improve almost every single team’s bullpen.

He’ll be 32 next season, so I wouldn’t expect a long term deal, but he’ll probably be able to get a two-year contract. Last year, he earned $2.95 million in arbitration, so I’d guess he’ll be able to earn slightly more than that as a free agent.

My prediction: 2 years, $7 million (with a $3 million team option for 2023)

Blake Parker

Right-hander Blake Parker was perhaps the Phillies best reliever during the 2020 season. Obviously, that’s not saying much, but it bodes well for the eight-year veteran on the open market. On the other hand, Parker only pitched in 14 games in 2020, and it was his first effective season since 2017. At age 35 and without much of a track record, Parker will be hard-pressed to sign a major league deal.

My prediction: Minor league deal

Heath Hembree

I’m honestly not sure that RHP Heath Hembree will be able to sign a major league contract this offseason. While that shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise considering his 2020 numbers, I still feel bad for him. He could have earned close to $2 million in his final year of arbitration, had the Phillies tendered him a contract.

Hopefully for Hembree, he’ll be able to sign a minor league deal this offseason and re-establish his value as a competent middle reliever.

My prediction: Minor league contract

Tommy Hunter

The Phillies signed RHP Tommy Hunter to a one-year, $850,000 contract last offseason. Hunter is one of the most longest-tenured relievers in the Phillies bullpen, having first donned red pinstripes in the first year under former manager Gabe Kapler (2018). Combined through 94 appearances with the Phillies, he has gone 5-5 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.170 WHIP, and 81-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio spanning 94 innings.

Hunter was good enough in 2020 to prove that he deserves another major league contract, but his numbers weren’t eye-popping and he’ll be another year older this offseason.

My prediction: 1 year, $850,000 again

Adam Morgan

Southpaw reliever Adam Morgan struggled mightily in 2020, and the Phillies elected not to tender him a contract in what would have been his third year of arbitration. However, while the Phillies decided that Morgan wasn’t worth the $2 million or so that he would have made in arbitration, he is still a talented pitcher with the potential to succeed in a lefty specialist role.

The Phillies could very well bring Morgan back on a cheaper deal, given their left-handed pitching depth is scarce.

My prediction: 1 year, $800,000

Brandon Workman

Similar to Hembree, RHP Brandon Workman absolutely tanked his value since the midseason trade from the Boston Red Sox. Based on his 2019 numbers, all Workman had to do was pitch competently in 2020 and he could have earned a multi-year contract this offseason.

However, Workman wasn’t nearly as bad as Hembree, and he’s shown the potential to be a top-of-the-line reliever. I think he’ll be able to secure a major league deal.

My prediction: 1 year, $1.5 million

David Phelps

When the Phillies traded for RHP David Phelps from the Milwaukee Brewers, they were surely counting on exercising his team-friendly $4.5 million option. Unfortunately, he was so bad for the team that he was no longer worth $4.5 million by season’s end.

However, with his strong track record, Phelps is still a lock to secure a major league contract. He could probably get a two-year deal, but I’m guessing he’ll want to try and re-establish some value with a one-year pact.

My prediction: 1 year, $2.75 million

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