Phillies: What to expect from Spencer Howard in MLB debut

What should Phillies fans expect from Spencer Howard in his MLB debut?

The bad news for this weekend? The Philadelphia Phillies have to play another doubleheader on Sunday. The good news? Spencer Howard, the organization’s top pitching prospect, will start in one of those two games against the Atlanta Braves.

Phillies fans had a feeling this would happen at some point this year. The starting rotation was one of the weak points coming into this season. Plus, it’s better to get Howard experience this year, with no minor league season; now, they have the extra year of control on his contract.

The Phillies have to play 53 games in 51 days because of the one-week hiatus due to the Miami Marlins’ COVID-positive tests and multiple rain delays this week. After the rainout on Tuesday due to the tropical storm, the Phillies had a doubleheader on Wednesday, which meant they were going to have to call someone up on Sunday to give the rotation sufficient rest. After another rainout on Friday, there was even more of an excuse to call up Howard.

This will be the most highly anticipated debut for a Phillies pitcher since Aaron Nola was called up in 2015. Howard certainly doesn’t have as much experience in the minor leagues as most would like. Before COVID-19, the hope was that the second-round pick would pitch a little more in Double-A, and move quickly up to Triple-A, before getting a promotion to the big leagues later this year.

Howard was practicing with the big-league team in summer camp and has been with the alternate training site in Lehigh Valley, so it’s not like he isn’t prepared for his start on Sunday.

In July, Howard pitched against some of the Phillies’ starters and was a force to be reckoned with. It’s also worth noting that Nola pitched just six games in Triple-A before his promotion. He had more experience than Howard did at the higher end of the minor leagues; but, the shortened season gives the Phillies a chance to see what Howard is made of.

Phillies fans will quickly learn that Howard has elite ‘stuff’ that will fool hitters at any level

The 36th-ranked prospect in baseball has a lethal four-pitch arsenal that results in a lot of swings and misses. At this point, most fans know that Howard has reached 99 miles per hour with his fastball and can blow it by hitters with ease. Expect to see a lot of his off-speed pitches on Sunday as well.

Even when Howard gets behind in the count, he can fool hitters with his nasty changeup that’s disguised as a fastball until it crosses the plate. It’s almost as good as Aaron Nola‘s on a really good day.

Howard’s slider has good velocity and a lot of bite to it, similar to Zack Wheeler‘s. He’ll likely get most of his strikeouts with it. His curveball is probably the least reliable of his four pitches, but it isn’t bad at all and can help keep hitters off balance at 76 miles per hour. It’s obviously difficult to adjust to that after seeing a fastball that touches 99 miles per hour.

The only major concern with Howard is how well he can locate all four of those pitches. It doesn’t matter how nasty your pitches are if you don’t have command. However, Howard is an intelligent pitcher and understands how to attack each individual hitter. When he misses his spot, he doesn’t panic and comes right back on the next pitch to challenge his opponent. He’ll also be able to get away with some mistakes with the velocity he has.

Howard’s confidence doesn’t fade when he doesn’t have success. During his minor league career, he had eight starts in which he gave up four or more runs. In the eight starts directly following, he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings.

That’s the definition of bouncing back. He also doesn’t get too arrogant after his best performances and keeps things in perspective. The 24-year-old has the tools and personality to be a successful starter for a long time. His competitive spirit is admirable.

What should we expect from Howard in his Phillies debut on Sunday?

Since Howard will be pitching in a seven-inning game thanks to the new doubleheader rule, there’s a chance he could pitch deep into the game, but the Phillies probably won’t want to push him too far in his first outing. Expect Howard to throw anywhere from three to six innings, depending on how well he manages his pitch count. He’s only given up more than four earned runs in four of his 47 career starts in the minor leagues, so he’s going to give the Phillies a chance to win almost every single time he’s out on the mound.

The righty should get a decent amount of strikeouts against an Atlanta Braves lineup that is mostly made up of right-handed hitters. Howard should be able to get them to bite on the slider away and the changeup dipping below the zone. Entering the weekend series, the Braves led the league in strikeouts with 152, so it’s a perfect matchup for the young prospect.

While we shouldn’t put too much pressure on Howard to have an amazing debut, it’s hard to see him not having a strong outing with the velocity and break he gets on his pitches. He also knows when to use each of his pitches. Some guys might have great “stuff” but they often get into trouble because they become predictable and the ball jumps off the bat. We’ve seen that for multiple seasons with Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta.

Phillies fans are going to have a hard time getting to sleep tonight with all of the excitement surrounding Howard’s debut.

The time has finally come. Spencer Howard is here and the future is bright.