Phillies: Do Pivetta or Velasquez benefit from a shorter season

The battle for a final spot in the Phillies rotation has resumed

Right around six months ago I wrote a piece detailing the battle that we all assumed would take place for the fifth spot in the Phillies starting rotation: Nick Pivetta vs Vince Velasquez. Both pitchers have struggled mightily during their Phillies careers, and with Spencer Howard knocking on the door, it was likely both would have a pretty short leash in 2020.

However, that was six months ago. Since then, the entire world (baseball included) has flipped upside down. Spring Training was cut short, the MLB season was delayed, a 60 game abbreviated schedule was agreed upon, and players left and right are opting out of playing due to COVID-19 concerns.

New Phillies ace Zack Wheeler himself has even expressed concern about playing due to his wife expecting a child in the near future.

With everything that has taken place over the last few months, it’s starting to look like the Pivetta vs Velasquez debate will end up happening after all. Not only is there a great deal of uncertainty regarding just general player health (pitchers could come down with the virus at any moment and miss multiple weeks), but a shortened season might actually help guys like Pivetta and Velasquez.

Both pitchers possess some serious heat when it comes to their fastball, and both have been used as relievers in the past (in an effort to maximize their strengths over the course of a few innings as opposed to an entire game). While it’s still unclear what the Phillies’ official five man rotation will look like come July 24, here’s to at least exploring the idea of starting Velasquez and/or Pivetta once in a while.

It’s now or never for Phillies pitcher Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta has long been praised for his high ceiling, yet has never even come close to capitalizing on it. Possessing a 5.34 ERA and a 1.426 WHIP across three seasons, it’s really challenging to see any sort of lasting potential left in him. Pivetta was even named as a sleeper Cy Young candidate heading into 2019, and then proceeded to post a 5.38 ERA, ending the season with stints in the bullpen and even the minor leagues.

A general consensus amongst the baseball community is that managers might get a little more creative when it comes to utilizing their pitching staff. On one side of the spectrum, guys like Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler might be asked to stretch out their starts on the regular, seeing as they have considerably less total innings they have to pitch this year.

On the other hand, someone like Pivetta might be asked to only pitch three to four innings on any given day, as Joe Girardi looks to utilize more of the bullpen to combat certain matchups.

Unfortunately, there’s really no evidence that Pivetta would excel in this type of role.

When looking at his splits by inning, Pivetta is actually pretty consistent regardless of where in the game he is pitching. The problem of course is that he is consistently below average.

Pivetta’s ERA by Inning:

First: 5.83

Second: 5.61

Third: 3.49

Fourth: 5.71

Fifth: 6.07

Sixth: 6.75

However, one slight positive you could take away is that Pivetta tends to do better earlier in the season. His career ERA in the months of April, March, and May sits in the mid/high 4.00s, while every other month is in the 5.00s and 6.00s.

There’s a small possibility that Pivetta could give the Phillies a little more juice through limited starts in a shortened season.