Phillies: Three players who could make or break the 2020 season
Which Philadelphia Phillies players could decide the team’s fate in 2020?
Major League Baseball is officially back. There will be a 2020 season after all. Despite the fact that all hope seemed lost after the proposals from both the MLB and the MLBPA seemingly made no progress, commissioner Rob Manfred mandated a season. Regardless of how everyone envisioned things panning out, we will have Philadelphia Phillies baseball soon enough.
However, this certainly won’t be a typical MLB season as baseball fans know. There will only be 60 games this year, 40 of which will be versus National League East division opponents while the other 20 will be versus American League East division opponents. There will be 30-man rosters for the first two weeks of the season that will dwindle to 28 for two more weeks and then down to 26 for the remainder of the season. Major League Baseball is also using this season as a test run for some rules they’ve thought about implementing for some time such as the runner on second base at the start of extra innings and the National League DH. Also, the trade deadline will be on August 31st, and teams can have a list of 60 players available to play throughout the season.
The 2020 season will be different, to say the least. With such a short season on the horizon, the race for a World Series title could be shaken up. The Phillies could certainly benefit from playing fewer games as they appeared to be fatigued in the final months of the last two seasons. It wasn’t pretty watching them drastically decline in August and September and eventually get eliminated. Gabe Kapler’s managerial style could have affected that as well especially with his usage of relief pitchers.
Regardless of what happened in previous years, Philly is definitely in a better position to contend for a title with new manager Joe Girardi and his coaching staff. We could see a new and improved Phillies team take the field in late-July. The hope is that this team is ready for a playoff run. For that to happen, certain players have to step up in the big moments of the season unlike in previous seasons. There are always players who are major x-factors in the Phillies’ success this summer and fall.
Let’s take a look at three Phillies players who could make or break this year’s edition of Phillies baseball.
Philadelphia Phillies fans know Zach Eflin needs to have a breakout season.
Zach Eflin is going to be a pretty significant piece for the Phillies in 2020, to say the least. The starting rotation is one of the biggest concerns for the team heading into this season. Aaron Nola is the bonafide ace. Despite not having an amazing 2019 season, he still did fairly well. He’ll be looking to bounce back and return to his Cy Young form from 2018. Regardless of whether you think Zack Wheeler was overpaid or not, he is the number two starter they needed and can keep his teams in the game even if he doesn’t have a great performance.
After those two guys, there are a lot of questions. The fifth and final spot is up for grabs between Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Ranger Suarez, and maybe even Spencer Howard. Jake Arrieta is trying to bounce back from yet another injury and hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations when he’s been on the mound. Eflin will likely compete with Arrieta for the third spot in the rotation.
It’s safe to say Eflin has had an up and down career. His first two seasons were definitely impacted by injuries and it was evident when he was on the mound. Each of his four seasons has looked promising at the start and then falters as the year moves along. In 2018, his ERA was as low as 2.97 to start July and then he finished the season at 4.36. In 2019, it was 2.81 in mid-June and then 4.13 by the end of the season.
To Eflin’s credit, he has steadily improved over his first four major league seasons, and he’s done that with three different pitching coaches over that span. That’s not as easy as it might sound. Bringing in Bryan Price should only help with that.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies’ starter is so crucial to the team’s success.
Since Eflin has struggled down the stretch in his past few seasons, it’s easy to forget how great he can be when he’s at his best. If the 26-year-old reaches anything close to what his potential ceiling might be, he could be a solid starter in Philly for a long time. The six-foot-six right-hander pitched two complete games last year, one of which was a shutout. In those two games, he pitched 18 innings and allowed just 11 hits, one earned run, and no walks to go along with ten strikeouts. Not a bad line at all.
Even in his rookie season, he threw two complete games, one of which was again a shutout. In those two starts, he allowed just nine hits, one earned run, and no walks while striking out 12. Keep in mind that both of these starts were not long after he had one of the worst MLB debuts in history. He’s no stranger to bouncing back and steadily improving.
Eflin could be a brand new pitcher under Bryan Price in 2020 if all goes well. Not to mention, having a short season could help him hit his stride at the right time rather than decline at the end of the year. Having a reliable third pitcher in the rotation can really push a team over the edge and give them an advantage heading into the playoffs. We saw that with the World Champion Washington Nationals last year with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and even Anibal Sanchez.
The Phillies didn’t even have a reliable number two until they signed Wheeler so if Eflin has a successful season, this team could make a big jump. If he doesn’t pitch well in 2020, there will be even more questions around his ability and this team will have a tough time competing for a playoff spot.
Vince Velasquez is a major concern for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Vince Velasquez is not the same pitcher that he was when he first came to Philadelphia. In his first two starts as a Phillie, he didn’t allow a run. One of those starts was a 16-strikeout shutout in which he allowed just three hits and no walks. He went into the all-star break with an 8-2 record, 3.32 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .250 AVG against, and 93 strikeouts to just 26 walks in 78.2 innings. The future looked promising.
He stumbled to the finish line but didn’t have a bad second season at all. In 2016, he went 8-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .263 AVG against, and 152 strikeouts to 45 walks in 131 innings and 24 total starts. There was definitely a lot to build off of. To put it mildly, things just went south quickly after that.
In 2017, he only made 15 starts due to a finger injury and went 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio was just 68 to 34. Even if you want to give him the excuse of the injury, those numbers didn’t get too much better when he was healthy for the majority of 2018. Going 9-12 with a 4.85 ERA isn’t much of an improvement.
In his most recent season, it was much of the same. He was 7-8 with a 4.91 ERA and allowed ten more home runs than he did in 2018 in 29.1 fewer innings. It truly is a mystery what happened to the old Vince Velasquez from 2016.
Could the Philadelphia Phillies move Vince Velasquez to the bullpen full-time?
In 2019, Velasquez did spend some time in the bullpen. He has good velocity and movement with a fastball that usually sits around 96 mph. He also adds in an 87 mph slider and an 83 mph curveball. Many Phillies fans have been waiting for the team to move him to the bullpen full-time because his pitch arsenal and velocity are perfect for late-innings in games.
He has also averaged 17.3 pitches per inning during his big league career which means he’s usually at around 87 pitches by the fifth inning. Pitch count is something that wouldn’t be much of a problem for the 28-year-old in the bullpen since he would only have to pitch one or two innings maybe three on a rare occasion.
In the bullpen in 2019, he didn’t allow a run in eight of his ten relief appearances. He also added 15 strikeouts in those 10.1 innings. He did have two poor performances out of the bullpen but every reliever is going to have a few rough outings. Plus, having eight scoreless appearances out of ten total appearances is pretty impressive.
His worst performance as a reliever also came against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that included 2018 National League MVP outfielder Christian Yelich, All-Star third basemen Mike Moustakas, and veteran outfielder Ryan Braun. Just two days prior to his poor outing against them, Vince did shut out that same lineup in two innings in relief allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out four so he is up to the challenge.
The Phillies should strongly consider moving Velasquez to the bullpen for the 2020 season. Although there is a small sample size of his time in the bullpen, it’s worth taking a second look at. This year might be his last chance anyway and if he doesn’t pitch well out of the bullpen then the Phillies will have their questions about Vince answered.
There are also some young guys in the bullpen who have potential but none of them have been reliable towards the end of the season. Maybe Vince can step up and be that reliable reliever when Philadelphia needs him most. Whether he pitches in the rotation or out of the bullpen, the Phillies plan to give him one more shot this year and if he doesn’t pitch well with extended time on the mound, there could be plenty of games that get out of hand quickly.
Spencer Howard could be the boost the Philadelphia Phillies need this year.
It might be a blessing in disguise if Spencer Howard gets called up to the big leagues in 2020. While he’s definitely expected to be a successful major league starter in the near future, some fans would prefer that the Phillies stay patient rather than rush his development. However, since there is no minor league baseball this season, this is the only way the 23-year-old can stay sharp and stay on the mound.
Philadelphia Phillies
It wouldn’t be a great decision to waste an entire year in the middle of his development. Not to mention, since it’s a shortened season the Phillies don’t have to worry about shutting him down after a certain number of innings towards the end of the year.
This season also possesses plenty of uncertainty meaning that anyone could get the virus at any time. The 60-player pool is there for a reason and every player will need to be ready to go at a moment’s notice.
Considering that Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Ranger Suarez are competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, it’s safe to say it’s anyone’s job. If Spencer Howard pitches well leading up to the start of the season, maybe the ‘Phils’ give him a shot and he sneaks into the rotation. It seems more likely that he’ll join the team midseason at some point though considering his lack of experience.
The six-foot-two, 205-pound right-hander has only pitched in six games at the double-a level and seven games at the single-a advanced level which is a bit concerning. Despite this, he’s still ranked as MLB.com‘s 34th prospect in baseball. He’s reportedly touched 99 mph on the radar gun with his fastball and mixes in a reliable changeup, a nasty slider, and an above-average curveball. The command could improve but when you can get the velocity and movement on all of your pitches as Howard can, you’re going to be able to have some measure of success at any level.
The Phillies really need Spencer Howard to step up
Howard has had success at each level during his minor league career. In 47 career minor league starts (211.1 innings), he is 13-10 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .215 AVG against, and 281 strikeouts to just 74 walks. 2018 was the only season in which he stayed at one level for the entire season and exceeded 100 innings. The result? A 9-8 record, 3.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .240 AVG against, and 147 strikeouts to just 40 walks in 23 starts and 112 innings. Not a bad second season in the pros.
In 2019, he started the year in single-a advanced with Clearwater. While he only started in seven games and threw just 35 innings, the numbers were still pretty impressive, to say the least. He went 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, .162 AVG against, and 48 strikeouts to just five walks.
With a red-hot start to the season, the Phillies moved him right up to double-a with the Reading Fightin Phils. In six starts and 30.2 innings, he went 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .180 AVG against, and 38 strikeouts to just nine walks. In the Arizona Fall League this past year, he also made six starts and threw 21.1 innings with a record of 1-1, 2.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts to just ten walks.
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The Phillies weren’t patient when moving him up to double-a and it paid off. In the past, they haven’t been afraid to bring guys up early. Odubel Herrera was a rule five draft pick out of double-a and then was a productive starter for the Phillies for his first few seasons. Some people thought that Jorge Alfaro needed more time in triple-a but he came up and hit .318 in the final months of the 2017 season. Then, he was a reliable starter in 2018 for the Phillies and in 2019 for the Marlins.
If Philly gives Spencer Howard some time to work with the coaching staff before calling him up, this team could receive a major boost. On the other hand, if they don’t give him a shot at some point this year, they could miss out on a special opportunity and suffer from Pivetta or Velasquez struggling as the fifth starter in the rotation.