Phillies: Three potential Free Agent bargains for 2021
A look at three potential free agent bargains who the Philadelphia Phillies could sign as replacements or additions for next season.
With plans for a 2020 MLB season changing by the day, it’s never too early to take a break from it all and look ahead to next year, with lots of change possible for the Philadelphia Phillies over the next off-season.
J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius and Jay Bruce are slated to become free agents, while the Phillies hold club options for Héctor Neris, Jake Arrieta and David Robertson.
Realmuto has been a big addition for the team and it would be no surprise to see the budget revolve around paying whatever it takes to keep Realmuto.
There aren’t many free agent shortstops. While there are options, if the Phillies elect not to re-sign Gregorius, they could move Jean Segura back to shortstop as Alec Bohm makes it to the big leagues at third base.
Looking at other positions, here are three potential free agents that the Phillies could sign without breaking the bank.
LF Joc Pederson
Leftfielder Joc Pederson is set to become a free agent. His pre-pandemic 2020 salary of $7.75 million ranks below several of the potential free agent outfielders. He’s not an everyday starter and the Los Angeles Dodgers tried to trade him pre-season, so the Phillies may be able to get Pederson at a decent price.
Pederson has a low batting average, .233 in six seasons, but makes up for it in home runs and RBIs. He hit 36 HR, 74 RBI and .249/.339/.538 in 149 games last season after hitting 25 HR, 56 RBI and .248/.321/.522 in 148 games in 2018.
Pederson is a left-handed hitter and posts better stats against right-handed pitchers, prompting the Dodgers to give him more playing time against righties than lefties. Last season, all of his home runs and all but one of his RBIs came in 401 at-bats versus right handers, where he recorded a .252/.349/.571 slash line. In 49 at-bats against left handers, he hit only one RBI, with a .224/.240/.265 slash line.
While the Phillies still have leftfielder Andrew McCutchen under contract for next year, Pederson can be signed as a replacement for Jay Bruce, where he can enter off the bench or start some games in place of either McCutchen, Adam Haseley or Bryce Harper, with Pederson having experience at all three outfield positions.
The Dodgers even tried Pederson at first base in 20 games last season, so he would be a great occasional starter to give other players rest.
Bruce and Pederson have both posted better HR and RBI numbers than averages the last couple of seasons. With Bruce’s 12 years of experience, there’s age and a higher salary to consider (at $14 million for 2020).
Pederson would be a good replacement for Bruce, a leading candidate to make occasional starts and a go-to option off the bench. He could be a good free agent bargain heading into next season.
SP James Paxton
Left-handed starting pitcher James Paxton could be another free agent bargain for the Phillies. There are a number of starters with a higher 2020 price tag than Paxton’s $12.5 million and he would be a good addition to the rotation.
Phillies pitching has been a point of emphasis for needing improvement and the addition of Zack Wheeler is a step in the right direction. With Jake Arrieta past his prime, the team will likely skip his 2021 club option. But, regardless of whether Arrieta remains with the team, Paxton could slot into third in the rotation behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Paxton is currently with the New York Yankees, where he posted a 15-6 record, 3.82 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 29 starts last season. He had the second-best win total and best ERA among Yankees starters, but will likely be slotted further back in the rotation with the addition of Gerrit Cole to a line-up already including Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Domingo German.
With Tanaka, Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi and potentially Corey Kluber (if his club option is not picked up) among free agents, Paxton could potentially fly under the radar and be available at a bargain, specifically if he gets overshadowed by the other Yankees starters.
However, there are some aging veterans scheduled to become free agents, which may lead to more interest in Paxton as a pitcher who could be signed to a longer contract. Even if he doesn’t become a bargain, he would still be worth signing over keeping Arrieta, whose record, ERA and WHIP have been on a decline in recent seasons.
Paxton spent six years with the Seattle Mariners prior to the Yankees, where he posted an 11-6 record, 3.76 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 2018, following a breakout season that saw a 12-5 record and 2.98 ERA. The records show his ability to factor into games and help the team win, while his ERA is also good for a second or third man in the rotation.
Paxton’s strikeout total (208 in 2018 and 186 in 2019) and innings pitched (160.1 in 2018 and 150.2 in 2019) were both down from Seattle to New York, despite starting an additional game. Still, he would be a potential free agent bargain who would help the Phillies strengthen their rotation for next season.
RP Keone Kela
A third potential free agent bargain is reliever Keone Kela. His $3.725 million salary for 2020 is significantly lower than a number of other free agent relievers. While his improved performance last season may bring extra attention, he can still be overlooked in a free agent class that includes Kirby Yates, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton and Brad Hand.
Kela had an impressive 7-5 record, 2.39 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 68 relief appearances during his rookie season for the Texas Rangers in 2015. But, after undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur, he posted a 6.09 ERA while being limited to 35 games in 2016, though he managed a 5-1 record.
Kela improved on his way to a closer role with the Rangers in 2018, recording a 3-3 record, 3.44 ERA and 24 saves before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he closed the season with a 2.93 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 15.1 innings pitched.
The right-handed pitcher showed promise in the Pirates bullpen last season, where he had a 2-0 record, 2.12 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 29.2 innings pitched, while recording a single save.
Philadelphia Phillies
Kela did miss roughly three months between a shoulder injury and suspensions, but will be worth watching this year as a young hand who just posted the best ERA of his major league career and has been named closer for the Pirates.
With the Phillies holding a club option on closer Héctor Neris and looking to make improvements in their bullpen, a reliever is something that’s needed and Kela could fly under the radar and be signed at a decent price. He also gives the team options, as he could work the eighth inning as a set-up man for Neris, or replace Neris as closer.
Neris struggled in 2018, but did well in 2017, with a 3.01 ERA and 26 saves. He proved to be back to form last season, with a 2.93 ERA and 28 saves. Still, there could be a battle for the closer job between Kela and Neris, should the Phillies have both pitchers in 2021.
While there’s still a lot to worry about before we get into free agency, Pederson, Paxton and Kela are three players to keep an eye on as potential free agent bargains for the Phillies.