Phillies: Busts, bloomers, and bluechip prospects of the last decade
Which Phillies prospects have been the biggest busts and booms of the last decade?
Attempting to predict the success of a guy just entering professional baseball is not an easy thing to do, and even the best of evaluators often fail in this quest. Sometimes that leads to a pleasant surprise, sometimes it’s just an annoying letdown, something Phillies fans have dealt with.
For years MLB Pipeline has created a list of the top 30 prospects for each team, as well as the top 100 prospects in the game, creating tantalizing expectations for baseball fans. Looking through these rankings, you’ll find “could have been’s”, busts, diamonds in the rough, and blue-chip studs that are dominating the game today.
Let’s recap the past 10 Phillies prospect classes from MLB Pipeline
Phillies 2011 Prospects
Top 5: Brody Colvin, Sebastian Valle, Jesse Biddle, Trevor May, Aaron Altherr
Bust: Brody Colvin
Surprise: Cesar Hernandez
Brody Colvin is a name, if one can remember, that was buzzing around Phillies Baseball at the beginning of the 2010s. A high-round pick (7) that never pitched above AA, Colvin featured multiple plus pitches, including a devastating sinker.
He jump-started his career in 2010 with a good season in A ball, but failed to improve and was out of baseball by 2014.
Cesar Hernandez, as we all know, has become if nothing else but a solid everyday second basement in the big leagues. Hernandez was known as a weak-stick, good glove infielder, but has added power to his game to become an all-around threat. Cesar signed with the Indians this year for $6.25 million.
Among these names is a very young Aaron Altherr (now in the KBO), and Trevor May, now an All-Star caliber relief arm for the Twins.
Phillies 2012 Prospects
Top 5: Jesse Biddle, Brody Colvin, Tommy Joseph, Larry Greene, Phillipe Aumont
Bust: Larry Greene
Surprise: Cody Asche
We’ll get to Jesse Biddle later, but Larry Greene was a colossal bust, maybe one of the worst in team history.
Greene was a supplementary first-round pick out of Nashville, Georgia and began is career in A ball, but could not hit professional pitching. He bottomed out of pro ball in 2014, never playing above Single-A.
A few picks after Greene? All-Star Trevor Story, followed by Blake Snell.
Cody Asche came in with lower expectations, but churned out a few years in the big leagues, albeit when the Phillies were in free fall after the 2008 ERA. He’s stuck around in pro ball up until this year, with some independent league stints in between.
Phillipe Aumont is a name most have forgotten, but he had closer written all over him, until we found out he couldn’t hit the ocean from 10 feet off the shoreline.
Phillies 2013 Prospects
Top 5: Jesse Biddle, Maikel Franco, Roman Quinn, J.P. Crawford, Tommy Joseph
Bust: Jesse Biddle
Surprise: Andrew Pullin
Jesse Biddle did eventually make it to the big leagues, but not the way the Phillies envisioned. A local kid out of Germantown High, Biddle had the makings of an excellent starting pitcher, with three plus pitches despite never possessing an excellent fastball.
Jesse couldn’t put it all together for the Phillies, suffering multiple long-term injuries and failing to execute when healthy. He was let go in 2015, was out of baseball for year, then made a comeback with the Braves. He’s been a relief arm in the show for a few teams, but has yet to find success.
Andrew Pullin was a young outfielder with loads of potential, but retired at 24 years old after struggling in Triple-A. Pullin played only 100 games at the AAA level, but decided that he wasn’t good enough to make it.
Tommy Joseph has appeared twice in the Top-5 category without mention; he’s now in AA with the Red Sox. This year was also the beginning of the Maikel Franco-J.P. Crawford hype train.
Phillies 2014 Prospects
Top 5: J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, Maikel Franco, Roman Quinn, Zach Eflin
Bust: Severino Gonzalez
Surprise: Victor Arano
Aaron Nola proved his blue-chip status in this season, proving his worth as a top-10 pick. Roman Quinn probably never deserved top-5 prospect status, but it was the speed that made scouts drool.
Severino Gonzalez was ranked #10 this season, and when called upon to spot-start in the big leagues, failed dramatically. His career MLB ERA was just under seven, and he was a righty that topped at 89 as a starter, enough said.
J.P. Crawford’s appearance comes later, but Victor Arano was a pleasant surprise. Now an anchor in the Phillies bullpen, Arano was exchanged for Roberto Hernandez (aka Fausto Carmona), and has been excellent in a middle-innings role.
This is Zach Eflin’s only appearance in this article; the tall righty has succeeded in becoming an innings-eater for the Phillies in the middle of the rotation.
Phillies 2015 Prospects
Top 5: J.P. Crawford, Mark Appel, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro
Bust: Mark Appel
Surprise: Cord Sandberg
Still no on Crawford yet, but Mark Appel is a close second for the biggest bust in recent Phillies memory (sorry, Domonic Brown and company).
Twice drafted as a first-rounder out of Stanford, Appel had the Aaron Nola label as a sure thing when he was taken by the Astros in 2013. He possessed excellent stuff, with a mid-90s heater and plus secondary offerings, but never had the consistency to succeed past AAA.
Appel’s failures are still a mystery to many. Thompson, Williams, and Alfaro all came from the Cole Hamels trade and Alfaro proved to be the most successful, with Thompson gone and Williams hoping to fill a utility role this season.
Cord Sandberg is about as interesting as they come. Taken in the third round back in 2013, Sandberg also had offers to play quarterback in the SEC. He chose baseball and was out of pro ball in 2018 after struggling to hit AA pitching. Having been drafted out of high school, Sandberg signed with the Auburn Tigers, where he has been the backup QB the last two seasons, still only 25 years old.
Phillies 2016 prospects
Top 5: J.P. Crawford, Mickey Moniak, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Cornelius Randolph
Bust: J.P. Crawford
Surprise: Sixto Sanchez
His third year atop the Phillies prospect chain was supposed to be his last en route to a glorious big-league career, although the expectations had been tempered by this point. J.P. Crawford was gifted and was drafted as a five-tool player, but struggled to hit across all levels, and his struggles continued at the big-league level.
Crawford was given multiple chances to stick with the Phils but was ultimately dealt to the Mariners in the deal that gifted the Phillies Jean Segura.
Sixto Sanchez was signed for $35,000, a low-ball offer for a guy who has at this point been compared to Pedro Martinez, pure stuff-wise, but he was traded to the Marlins in the J.T. Realmuto deal.
Phillies 2017 prospects
Top 5: Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Scott Kingery, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro
Bust: Mickey Moniak
Surprise: Seranthony Dominguez
It’s robably still too early to call first overall pick Mickey Moniak a bust at this point, but the top prospect within an organization is supposed to be as close to a sure thing as there is. Tagged as the best pure prep hitter in his class, Moniak has yet to hit his stride at the pro level. He’s still only 22 this season, but it’ll take a lot for Moniak to fulfill the expectations placed upon him.
The tools are all there, he just needs that ever so elusive trait of consistency.
Seranthony Dominguez, as we all know, came out of obscurity and into the limelight during the tenure of Gabe Kapler as a dominant back-end reliever. If he can stay healthy he could be a setup man or closer.
Scotty Kingery began his breakthrough towards a historic contract last year and stands to start at his natural position of second base.
Phillies 2018 prospects
Top 5: Alec Bohm, Adonis Medina, Adam Haseley, Jo-Jo Romero, Mickey Moniak
Bust: Cornelius Randolph
Surprise: Ranger Suarez
Alec Bohm makes his debut atop the prospect charts, as do Adam Haseley and JoJo Romero. Romero is still toiling in AAA, hoping to land a rotation spot at some point.
Cornelius Randolph is yet another failure in the first round by the Phils front office. Another high school bat with excellent potential, Randolph has spent all of the last two seasons in AA, and is already entering his age 23 season. This will be a make or break year for Randolph, who lacks the all-around tools to not rely on his bat.
Ranger Suarez was a little unimpressive in his MLB debut, but stuck around with the Phils and looked great in spring training pre-coronavirus. He’ll never have elite stuff, but improving command and deception could bring Suarez into the fold as a fourth or fifth starter, and the Phillies haven’t had a great lefty since Hamels left.
Phillies 2019 Prospects
Top 5: Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard, Bryson Stott, Adonis Medina, Luis Garcia
Bust: Arquimedes Gamboa
Surprise: Erik Miller
Arquimedes Gamboa has represented the Phillies in the Futures Game and was widely regarded as a great fielding infielder who, if he could hit enough, would be a Cesar Hernandez-like player.
Another guy that still has some time to rebound, Gamboa is barely hitting the Mendoza line across four levels.
Erik Miller is another intriguing prospect. Drafted out of Stanford in the fourth round, Miller was overshadowed by guys like Bryson Stott. Miller is large man, and his velocity just keeps going up as he gains innings. Miller has some delivery issues to clean up, but his stuff lines up with the best in that draft class.
Pitcher Spencer Howard is expected to become the next big thing with Alec Bohm as the future Kris Bryant, and Bryson Stott is beginning to look promising.
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies 2020 Prospects
Top 5: Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard, Bryson Stott, Francisco Morales, Adonis Medina
Bust: Adonis Medina
Surprise: Damon Jones
This season featured a ton of new faces to the list of the top prospects, Damon Jones being one of them.
The tall southpaw out of Washington State has flourished in the Phillies system, harnessing a mid-90s heater with a wipe out curve. He was set to begin this season in AAA with an eye on the big leagues later this season.
Adonis Medina has been at the top of the prospect charts for half a decade, but has yet to pitch past Double-A. Medina has thrown nearly 500 minor leagues innings, and with a semi-limited repertoire, the Phillies may be inclined to move him to the bullpen where his hard sinker may play well.
Once regarded as an elite prospect, Medina is beginning to look like a fringe-caliber player at best.
Francisco Morales is the only new name in this grouping, a young arm that is developing a devastating fastball-slider combination in the lower levels.