Phillies: Three Reasonable Expectations for Jean Segura this season
What can fans expect to see from Jean Segura in his second season with the Phillies?
Jean Segura is part of the Philadelphia Phillies’ list of players entering their second season with the team, joining the likes of Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, Adam Haseley and Jay Bruce.
While Segura’s averages were down last season and his position will change with shortstop Didi Gregorius signing with the Phillies, there are still three expectations that should be considered reasonable for this season, whenever it begins.
Segura will be a starter in most games
Since his first full season in the majors in 2013, Segura has consistently been one of the top players on his team in the number of games played.
One of his lower ranks actually came last year, where he played in the fifth-most games among Phillies players, with 144 games.
Segura has played in 142 or more games each season since 2013, except for a 2017 season limited by injury. He averages 143 games a season since his first full year.
This year, Segura is expected to start a large number of his games at third base, despite no prior experience at that position (more on that later).
Even with third baseman prospect Alec Bohm getting closer to the majors, Segura’s track record and statistical comparison to the other infielders suggests he will be a starter throughout the season, however many games there will be.
Segura has a 162-game average 12 HR, 58 RBI, 28 SB and .286/.326/.406 slash line.
Most of his appearances came at shortstop, but he also has experience at second base.
For comparison, Gregorius has a 162-game average 21 HR, 79 RBI, six SB and .264/.313/.429 slash line. Scott Kingery, expected to spend most of his time at second base, has a 162-game average 16 HR, 53 RBI, 15 SB and .242/.291/.407 slash line.
While the numbers show that Gregorius is more productive and Kingery is near equal in the home run and RBI categories, Segura still has the leg up in averages.
It’s important to note that the home run and RBI averages come from a smaller sample size for Gregorius and Kingery, with 851 and 273 career games respectively compared to Segura’s 1,045 career games.
The role of each player also depends on their spot in the batting order. Segura batted first or second in 68.9 percent of his career games, compared to 5.76 percent for Gregorius and 15.02 percent for Kingery.
The further along in the batting order a player is, the more likely they are to have more opportunities with runners in scoring position. As one of the first two hitters in the order, Segura would be more likely to try to reach base for the next hitter, as his strong batting average suggests.
It’s reasonable to believe the Phillies will keep Segura in the starting lineup throughout the season, regardless of what position he plays.
Segura will adapt to third base
The primary challenge for Segura will be to learn a new defensive position.
Segura has the most experience at shortstop, with 899 career games, while his other appearances were at second base (137 games) and as a pinch hitter (15 games).
The expectation for this season is that Scott Kingery will get the brunt of second base duties, while Segura will be the primary third baseman, as Didi Gregorius is welcomed to the team at shortstop and Alec Bohm continues to work his way towards the majors.
Playing a new position on defense shouldn’t affect his hitting. His percentages are great across the board, batting .321/.372/.505 as second baseman, .280/.319/.710 as shortstop and .286/.333/.357 as pinch hitter.
When it comes to fielding, Segura had one of the lower fielding percentages on the team last season, with a .963. By position, Segura has a .969 career fielding percentage at shortstop and a .985 fielding percentage in one season at second base.
Segura is fairly consistent from year to year when it comes to his fielding percentage. While third base will be a learning curve, he’s had to adjust to a new position before and is now a veteran major leaguer.
In spring training, Segura spent his first game at third base, where he looked shaky in a couple of plays where he went after balls that Gregorius could have got.
Segura told MLB.com about playing third base that “it felt a little weird, but not too much. It felt OK. Not too bad. I was just rushing a little bit, trying to catch everything. I think the more I play there, the more I’ll get used to it.”
Manager Joe Girardi said that the plays don’t look hard for Segura, it’s the reads that he needs to work on and that “it’s just communication.”
On MLB Network’s 30 Clubs in 30 Days, Segura spent some time with the network’s Cliff Floyd and Phillies great Larry Bowa on a backfield to demonstrate and talk about playing at third base.
Segura mentioned watching the Oakland Athletics’ third baseman Matt Chapman and his positioning, playing “way deep.” He also told MLB Network that the change in throwing would be no big deal and that “I have to do the best I can for the team and (if) they want me to play third, I’m here.”
With a positive attitude and lots of opportunity to practice, it’s reasonable to expect Segura to adjust quickly to the new position once baseball resumes.
Segura will have a batting average of .280 or better
While his fielding could use some improvement, there’s no doubt that Segura makes up for it on the offensive end.
Segura batted .280 last season, making it five of seven full seasons in the majors where he’s hit .280 or better, the exceptions being 2014 and 2015 with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Those lower batting averages came after a 2013 season where he hit .294 and appeared in the All-Star Game.
In 2016, he made huge improvements, batting .319 and leading the National League with 203 hits and 637 at-bats with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That followed a 2015 season with a .257 batting average with Milwaukee.
Since then, Segura’s hitting has remained stellar. He batted .300 in 2017 for the Seattle Mariners and .304 the following year, while making his second All-Star Game.
Philadelphia Phillies
The fact that his batting average was down last year with the Phillies does not take away from the fact that he was one of the team’s best hitters.
Segura’s .280 batting average was second only to Corey Dickerson’s .293, with Dickerson only appearing in 34 games with the Phillies.
Segura was second to Cesar Hernandez in hits (171 to 161), with Hernandez appearing in 17 more games. Segura led the team in doubles (37) and tied with Scott Kingery for the second-most triples (four triples to Rhys Hoskins’ five).
Overall, Segura is one of the MLB’s best hitters since 2016.
He has a .301 batting average over the last four seasons, ranking 24th among MLB players with 200 or more plate appearances.
Given his consistent yearly batting averages and place amongst Phillies hitters last season, it’s reasonable to expect that Segura will match or top his .280 batting average this year.