Phillies: Breaking down the NL East and how the Phils stack up
The NL East had four teams, including the Phillies, that finished .500 or better
The NL East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in the league, with most of the predictors having the top four teams, including the Phillies, within 10 games of each other.
The Marlins seem to be in a continuous state of rebuild, with plenty of potential in the pipeline.
However, the other four teams have plenty of star power in their lineups, and top-end pitchers to anchor their rotations. The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals claimed playoff berths in 2019, with the Nationals riding their momentum all the way to a World Series title. However, both teams lost big power bats that protected the tops of their lineups.
The Phillies and New York Mets both suffered from poor performances from their stars, but are primed to make pushes for the playoffs. The Phillies made some moves to improve both their rotation and their lineup, while the Mets are hoping that the return of injury-plagued players can spark their team.
Here’s an outlook at how I see the division shaping out:
5) Miami Marlins (2019: 57-105, 5th place)
The Action Network Odds to win division: +20000
The Action Network Wins over/under: 64.5
PECOTA win projection: 71-91
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 1.4%
Projecting Starting Lineup:
- Jonathon Villar
- Brian Anderson
- Corey Dickerson
- Jesus Aguilar
- Jorge Alfaro
- Isan Diaz
- Miguel Rojas
- Luis Brinson
Projected Rotation:
The Marlins look to improve upon any progress they made last season, specifically with the emergence of Brian Anderson, who led the team in WAR. Miami added some veterans to revamp their lineup, including Jonathon Villar, Jesus Aguilar, and ex-Phillie Corey Dickerson. None of these hitters are projected to put up monster numbers, but the organization hopes that they can bridge the gap to their future.
Miami also returns their starting rotation from last season, with only one of them keeping their ERA below 4.00. All of them are under 25, so it’s still anyone’s guess as to how their season will go.
It’s fair to say that the Marlins will finish with a better record than last season, but they’re very much still in the rebuilding stages. We may even see several call ups throughout the year, and players being shipped out to contenders.
My Projection: 64-98, 5th Place.
4) New York Mets (2019: 86-76, 3rd place)
The Action Network Odds to win division: +275
The Action Network Wins over/under: 87
PECOTA win projection: 88-74
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 75.3%
Projecting Starting Lineup:
Projected Rotation:
It’s hard to believe that the Mets were playoff-bound in 2019 until Milwaukee went 20-7 in September to edge them out. They had the second-best record in the NL after the All Star break, after starting the season 40-50.
With the offensive breakout of Pete Alonso , J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil, there’s a lot of optimism for this year in Queens. Adding quality veterans like Matt Adams and Jake Marisnick, while also getting Brandon Nimmo and Yoenis Cespedes from injury, the Mets will attempt to recapture the magic they created.
Where they most needed to improve, and where I believe they will fall short, is their pitching. Jacob deGrom is a workhorse ace; he’s not the problem. Behind him are four capable, yet inconsistent starters, who have been unable to put together a full season living up to their potential. Replacing Zack Wheeler with Rick Porcello isn’t necessarily a downgrade, but he’ll be more of a back-end of the rotation filler.
I don’t buy the hype that everyone is stocking into the Mets, and believe that they’re due to regress offensively. And in a jam-packed division, regression will hinder them from taking the step forward.
My prediction: 83-79, 4th place.
3) Washington Nationals (2019: 93-69, 2nd place)
The Action Network Odds to win division: +260
The Action Network Wins over/under: 89.5
PECOTA win projection: 87-75
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 69.0%
Projecting Starting Lineup:
- Victor Robles
- Adam Eaton
- Trea Turner
- Juan Soto
- Starlin Castro
- Asdrubal Cabrera/Carter Kieboom
- Eric Thames
- Kurt Suzuki/Yan Gomes
Projected Rotation:
The Nationals seemed to have paid the price for winning the World Series, costing them their most consistent player over the last four seasons in Anthony Rendon. Off the best year of his career, Rendon signed a big contract to join the Los Angeles Angels, leaving a power void in the middle of the Nationals lineup. Rendon was the only player with over 400 ABs and an average above .300.
Juan Soto had a terrific year, but he and Trea Turner will be asked to step up in a big way. Eric Thames and Starlin Castro were brought in to ease the burden on production, but it will be a tall task with Turner sliding into the three spot in the lineup for the first time in his career. The Nationals are also expecting 2016 first-round pick and top prospect Carter Kieboom to develop quickly.
There is no doubt that the Nationals return the best rotation in the division. While Max Scherzer is coming off the first season since 2010 where he didn’t win at least 14 games, Stephen Strasburg is coming off his most complete season of his career and a World Series MVP. Patrick Corbin had another stellar season, and Anibal Sanchez found some resurgence being a part of this rotation. If Strasburg and Corbin experience any setbacks, Scherzer is sure to bounce back.
The Nationals will likely experience some decline at the plate, and the regularity at third base and the three spot will be tough to replace, but I still see the Nationals as being a threat in the division again.
My prediction: 89-73, 3rd place
2) Philadelphia Phillies (2019: 81-81, 4th Place)
The Action Network Odds to win division: +320
The Action Network Wins over/under: 85.5
PECOTA win projection: 77-85
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 8.9%
Projecting Starting Lineup (based off Bryce Turner’s projections):
- Andrew McCutchen
- Jean Segura
- Bryce Harper
- Rhys Hoskins
- Didi Gregorius
- J.T. Realmuto
- Scott Kingery
- Adam Haseley
Projected Rotation:
One word to summarize the Phillies 2019: unsatisfying. The signing of Bryce Harper was supposed to bring new life into the organization, but injuries and underwhelming performances led to a sub-par season.
Yet, there were plenty of positives: J.T. Realmuto had his best season as a professional, Scott Kingery took great strides in his development, and Adam Haseley showed up large when he was called upon. Now, the return of Andrew McCutchen, the signing of the powerful Didi Gregorious, and the hopeful return-to-form of Rhys Hoskins will be a devastating lineup for any rotation.
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The question marks to begin last season surrounds the Phillies’ rotation again in 2020: who is going to step up? The organization brought in a valuable starter in Zack Wheeler, one of the top free agent pitchers on the market. Yet after that, Jake Arrieta struggled with consistency, Vince Velasquez grinded every outing to get to the sixth inning, Zach Eflin succumbed to injury again, and Nick Pivetta failed to live up to his high expectations. If the Phillies’ rotation can even be just slightly better in 2020 (looking at you, Aaron Nola), they’ll be extremely competitive in the division.
Just like I don’t believe the Mets’ hype, I don’t understand the Phillies’ hate. This team won 81 games with a plethora of injuries and they upgraded positions of need. They will push for a division title, and will be firmly in the Wild Card consideration.
My Prediction: 90-72
1) Atlanta Braves (2019: 97-65, 1st Place)
The Action Network Odds to win division: +190
The Action Network Wins over/under: 90.5
PECOTA win projection: 83-79
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 38.4%
Projecting Starting Lineup:
- Ronald Acuna, Jr.
- Ozzie Albies
- Freddie Freeman
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ender Inciarte
- Dansby Swanson
- Johan Camargo/Austin Riley
- Travis d’Arnaud
Projected Rotation:
The Braves return as two-time NL East champs, and look to retain that title for a third straight season, which hasn’t been done in the East since the 2007-2011 Phillies. They have two of the top-eight MVP vote-getters in Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman, and a top-six Cy Young finisher in Mike Soroka.
While Josh Donaldson ended up signing in Minnesota and Brian McCann retired, the Braves replaced their production with Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud. Atlanta finished seventh in runs per game, and will need them to cover for the third-most RBIs on the team from Donaldson.
Philadelphia Phillies
Where the Braves needed to reload is their rotation, and they brought in two legitimate veterans to aid. Phillie-great Cole Hamels and Mariner legend Felix Hernandez were brought in to add some leadership to their otherwise youthful staff, while adapting their games at the end of their careers. They will be taking over for Julio Teheran and Dallas Keuchel, who were seventh and eight on the team in WAR. If Soroka can repeat his performance, and the rest of the starters can best the output of last season, the Braves will be the top of the division again.
Last season, the Braves had the second highest “Pythagorean Luck” score, which compares the anticipated record versus their actual record, and had the third best record in one-run games. There’s no telling if the Braves will have the same “luck” this season, with their second-year pitcher outperforming expectations, and their second-year outfielder blossoming into an MVP candidate. I anticipate that some numbers will come back to earth, but they’re still the team to beat in the division.
My prediction: 92-70, 1st place.