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Phillies: Breaking down the NL East and how the Phils stack up

By Matthew Landmesser

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 07: Manager Don Mattingly #8 of the Miami Marlins in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 07: Manager Don Mattingly #8 of the Miami Marlins in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

The NL East had four teams, including the Phillies, that finished .500 or better

The NL East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in the league, with most of the predictors having the top four teams, including the Phillies, within 10 games of each other.

The Marlins seem to be in a continuous state of rebuild, with plenty of potential in the pipeline.

However, the other four teams have plenty of star power in their lineups, and top-end pitchers to anchor their rotations. The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals claimed playoff berths in 2019, with the Nationals riding their momentum all the way to a World Series title. However, both teams lost big power bats that protected the tops of their lineups.

The Phillies and New York Mets both suffered from poor performances from their stars, but are primed to make pushes for the playoffs.  The Phillies made some moves to improve both their rotation and their lineup, while the Mets are hoping that the return of injury-plagued players can spark their team.

Here’s an outlook at how I see the division shaping out:

5) Miami Marlins (2019: 57-105, 5th place)

The Action Network Odds to win division: +20000
The Action Network Wins over/under: 64.5
PECOTA win projection: 71-91
PECOTA Chances to make the playoffs: 1.4%

Projecting Starting Lineup:

  1. Jonathon Villar
  2. Brian Anderson
  3. Corey Dickerson
  4. Jesus Aguilar
  5. Jorge Alfaro
  6. Isan Diaz
  7. Miguel Rojas
  8. Luis Brinson

Projected Rotation:

  1. Caleb Smith
  2. Sandy Alcantara
  3. Jose Urena
  4. Pablo Lopez
  5. Jordan Yamamoto

The Marlins look to improve upon any progress they made last season, specifically with the emergence of Brian Anderson, who led the team in WAR. Miami added some veterans to revamp their lineup, including Jonathon Villar, Jesus Aguilar, and ex-Phillie Corey Dickerson. None of these hitters are projected to put up monster numbers, but the organization hopes that they can bridge the gap to their future.

Miami also returns their starting rotation from last season, with only one of them keeping their ERA below 4.00. All of them are under 25, so it’s still anyone’s guess as to how their season will go.

It’s fair to say that the Marlins will finish with a better record than last season, but they’re very much still in the rebuilding stages. We may even see several call ups throughout the year, and players being shipped out to contenders.

My Projection: 64-98, 5th Place.

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