Phillies: Five Bold Predictions for Spring Training
A couple of Phillies really need to step up their game this offseason
We are only days away from Phillies spring training games being played.
Finally, after the long offseason wait baseball is back and we will soon be seeing the direction the Phillies are going this season. Everyone has bold predictions on what will unfold during spring training and these are some of my thoughts.
Nick Pivetta will win a starting rotation spot.
After the first bullpen session of the spring, Joe Girardi was asked if anybody caught his eye, the first name out of his mouth was Nick Pivetta.
“Nick Pivetta looked really good. It looked like he shortened his arm stroke a little bit and we liked what we saw.”
Girardi mentioned his shortened arm stroke but Pivetta is also rotating his lift leg more than he was the previous year.
During the offseason, Nick has been working out with Noah Syndergaard and Jack Flaherty and in offseason videos where you can see his tweak in mechanics.
For Pivetta, in the past, you don’t know what you’re going to get, he has been an up and down roller coaster but the potential is there. He has a good fastball thrown around 94-98 MPH and a curveball thrown around 80-84 MPH with a spin rate in the 92nd percentile in the league according to BaseballSavant.
His ceiling is high and whether it is as a starter or in the bullpen he has the stuff to be effective. Sometimes a simple tweak in your mechanics can get you over the hump and flip the switch to untapped potential.
When it comes to Vinny Velasquez you usually know what you’re getting. You have a pitcher that can give you up to five solid innings of work on a good day. Last season he gave the Phillies 117.1 innings (5.1 innings per game) with a 4.91 ERA. He’s a somewhat solid back-end starter but he could potentially be a big weapon in the bullpen with his velocity, the same could be said about Pivetta.
According to BaseballSavant, Velasquez fastball averages out at 94.2 MPH and tops out at 98.1, he’s in the 69th percentile in the league.
It’s too early to tell but I believe taking a chance on Pivetta at the number five-spot in the rotation is a good risk to take, and normally a rotation doesn’t make it through a whole season without injuries so we will most likely get a glance at each of them throughout the regular season.
Scott Kingery will start the season at 3B
Yes, Jean Segura has been taking reps at third base and some people have been saying the Phillies strongly prefer him at that position compared to shortstop or second base.
If we’re breaking down who fits best between Scott Kingery and Segura at 3B and 2B we should start by mentioning Segura doesn’t have playing experience at 3B in his minor or major league career. Kingery has played multiple positions in his young career, including third base.
Scott is a much more versatile fielder than Jean and it would seem to make more sense to put Jean at 2B, a position he has played before in the majors.
If we look at MLBs new infield defensive metric, infield Outs Above Average, Kingery is a better infield defender than Segura by a good margin. OAA described in the short version is broken down into four things, how far the fielder has to go to reach the ball, how much time he has to get there, how far he then is from the base the runner is heading to, and on force plays how fast the batter is on average.
To get an idea, the leader in this category is Cubs Javier Baez with a +19. Kingery ended 2019 with a +3 OAA while Segura finished with -4 on the season.
The Phillies leaders were Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins at +4. If we are going by that metric it looks like placing Kingery on the hot corner could benefit the Phillies more in 2020.
Girardi said he would like Kingery to play one position the whole season, which may not be too possible if we expect Alec Bohm to get a call up. If Bohm is called up at some point in 2020 it would be a much smoother switch to move Kingery from 3B to CF and make room for Bohm while have Haseley inevitably move to the bench, keeping Jean right where he was at 2B.
Girardi said, “What we’re going to see is they both can play both positions very well.”
It will be more clear what direction they want to go as spring training rolls along.
JT Realmuto extension is signed before Opening Day.
J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies had an arbitration meeting scheduled for Wednesday and on Thursday it was announced that he lost the case and will be awarded $10M to play in the 2020 season, the most ever by a catcher in MLB history.
The leagues’ best catcher has said all the right words to put fan’s minds at ease for the inevitable upcoming extension talk.
“I could see myself staying in Philly and playing my entire career here. Also being one year away from free agency wouldn’t be a bad things for me either. But I don’t think it’ll get to that. I think the Phillies and myself could lineup pretty well.
The Phillies likely could enter extension talks with Realmuto after the arbitration hearing. With the Chicago White Sox signing Yasmani Grandal, who is consensus thought to be the second-best catcher in baseball behind JT, we have a more clear vision of what a Realmuto extension may look like.
Grandal was awarded a 4 year, 73-million dollar deal, that’s about 18.3 million per season. When it comes to JT he can do it all around, he’s a Gold Glover, Silver Slugger and an All-Star. His season last year was unbelievable, one of the best we’ve seen by a Phillies catcher in a long time.
The Phillies have to get a deal done with JT, they traded away a potential ace prospect in Sixto Sanchez to acquire Realmuto.
I don’t see anything going wrong in the negotiations, it is pretty clear that JT is worth the extension and worth the money and the Phillies understand what they have to do.
Depending on if the Phillies would count the arbitration year into the extension or not, I’d say Realmuto is likely to get a 5-year deal for about $20 million per season.
Rhys Hoskins new stance will be effective in spring training.
When the video of Rhys Hoskins’ new batting stance came out it made most fans feel optimistic seeing his hands significantly lower than last season.
https://twitter.com/JClarkNBCS/status/1227610747460620296
Hoskins’ second half of 2019 was anything but successful, he hit .180 and had an OPS of .639.
Like I mentioned earlier, a tweak in mechanics could end up being exactly what a player needs.
With his hands being lower he shouldn’t be trying to pull the ball as much and will get to the baseball a lot quicker.
Since having his monster rookie campaign while playing only 50 games, Hoskins batting statistics have been moving slightly down each year.
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He went from slashing .259/.396/.618 with 18 home runs and a 4th place Rookie of the Year finish to .226/.364/.454 and 29 home runs in 160 games in 2019.
Going into the 2019 season expectations were high for the Harper-Hoskins power bat combination in the lineup. The first half of the season Rhys was looking good at the plate, he was slashing .263/.401/.530 with 20 home runs through 89 games, on pace to end with a solid season. But the second half it fell apart, he slashed a jaw dropping .180/.318/.361 with nine home runs in 71 games.
That type of half season isn’t what you’d expect out of him and it was just as tough to watch. Whether it was hitting coach Joe Dillon or somebody else who got him to try a new stance, it hopefully can be successful.
Spring training is the perfect trial period to work on a new stance and try to find a rhythm. If it works out well for Hoskins, that could make the Phillies lineup more consistent in 2020.
Mickey Moniak will turn heads.
The Phillies first overall pick in 2016 had himself a pretty solid year in AA Reading last season.
Mickey Moniak slashed .252/.303./.439 while upping his home run total to eleven after hitting five the previous year. Moniak was also working walks more and swinging less outside of the zone upping his walk rate from 4.7% in 2018 to 6.5% in 2019.
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Last season he tied his professional career-best with 117 hits, 28 doubles, while topping his career-best with 13 triples, 11 home runs, 67 RBIs, 33 walks, 15 stolen bases and had an OPS 54 points higher than in 2018.
There is a lot to be excited about for him, he has been growing as a player every season and he should only get better.
When evaluating Moniak, you have to remember he is only 21 years old, drafted out of high school by the Phillies a few years back.
MLB.com had high praise when profiling Moniak before the draft.
“Moniak makes consistent hard contact against high level competition. He has a good approach at the plate and can spray line drives to all fields. Moniak has more doubles power now, but there’s room in his frame to add strength. His above average speed works on both sides of the ball, and some see a future Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Moniak gets high marks for his baseball instincts and effort.
He will get a taste of AAA action in the 2020 season. But he has a chance to make a name for himself early by showing off his skill in spring training games.