Phillies: Debating Nick Pivetta vs Vince Velasquez
Should the Phillies tun to Nick Pivetta or Vince Velasquez as their fifth starter?
Before even delving into the Phillies Nick Pivetta versus Vince Velasquez discussion, it’s important to establish that this article makes a few key assumptions.
First, is that the Phillies are done adding to their rotation this offseason because of the luxury tax. No more free agent signings and no more trades.
This would mean that the group of Nola, Wheeler, Arrieta, and Eflin are all locked in as the team’s first four starters.
Second, is that the Phillies don’t plan to call up minor-league standout *Spencer Howard* for the start of the season. While he obviously will be in the rotation at some point this year, he probably won’t make it there for opening day.
By taking these quite probable scenarios as factual, that leaves Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta to battle it out for the team’s #5 spot in the starting rotation.
As of right now, it appears “Vinny Velo” is lined up to once again be a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies. This has caused quite a bit of concern amongst fans (myself included) and reporters alike.
For pretty much his entire tenure as a major leaguer, Vince has been an extremely below average pitcher. His career ERA is a 4.67 and the most games he’s ever won in a season is nine.
Last year was a particularly bad season for Velasquez, who started 23 games while also making 10 appearances as a reliever. He recorded an ERA of 4.91, a WHIP of 1.389, and allowed a career worst 26 home runs.
One of the biggest complaints surrounding Velasquez is his inability to go deep into games as a starting pitcher. In his 23 starts last season he averaged 4.59 innings pitched. In case you couldn’t tell that’s really, really bad.
The Velasquez experiment has lasted four long seasons in Philly, and with a career 5.5 WAR in 99 starts, he’s barely made an impact on the franchise.
Nick Pivetta
Entering the 2019 season, many baseball analysts actually had Pivetta pinned as a potential sleeper Cy Young candidate. Pivetta had excellent “stuff” in 2018 (mainly talking about his spin rate) but received some woeful defense behind him. With a FIP that ranked in the top 30 in all of baseball (3.79) and a strikeout rate which ranked top seven amongst qualified starters, the possibility for a breakout season was right there for the taking.
Alas, that breakout from the 26 year old never happened. In 2019 Pivetta recorded a 5.38 ERA and a WHIP over 1.5. He made just 13 ugly starts as a Phillie before the coaching staff seemingly gave up on him. He was shuffled around between the bullpen and the minor leagues for the remainder of the season as the Phillies turned instead to veterans Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas.
Pivetta is one of the more infuriating stories for Phillies fans. The analytics scream that he has the potential to be a solid pitcher in the MLB, but Pivetta has never displayed that for more than a game at a time.
On top of that, he appears to be a little on the “emotional” side when it comes to pitching. He frequently displayed instances of intense frustration on the mound in 2019 when things weren’t going his way.
Why not Pivetta?
When looking at their career numbers, it’s obvious why one would trend towards picking Velasquez as the better starter. He has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP, win-loss record, AND has more overall experience. However, that hidden potential still tucked away inside Pivetta should give him the edge.
The Phillies overhauled their coaching staff this offseason. With the departures of Gabe Kapler and Chris Young comes the arrival of Joe Girardi and Bryan Price. Girardi and Price are known around the league for their ability to get the best out of pitchers.
Upgraded pitching staff or not, we have likely seen the best of Velasquez. He struggles to locate his fastball, can’t pitch deep into games, has no real *strikeout pitch*, and at 27 he’s no longer a “young prospect”. While the duo of Girardi and Price may be able to turn Vince into a decent #5 starter, that’s about all he’ll ever be.
Philadelphia Phillies
Pivetta, on the other hand, has legitimately shown ace-like potential before. Despite his record and ERA not totally reflecting it, he was an above average pitcher in 2018.
When compared to other pitchers in the national league Pivetta ranked: 5th in strikeouts per 9 innings, 8th in total strikeouts, 9th in Ks/BBs, and 9th in games started. With the proper coaching, Pivetta wouldn’t just be a solid #5 pitcher, he would be a solid #3 pitcher. With just three years under his belt as a major leaguer, hope isn’t gone just yet.
Now the Phillie faithful have been told this story before when it comes to Nick. Ultimately, just simply signing a guy like Alex Wood or calling up Howard makes the most sense for the Phils’ rotational woes.
However, it appears Matt Klentak and the front office are banking on their new coaches to work some magic with some of their young pitchers.
If that is indeed the case, the candidate for “back of the rotation project” should be Pivetta without a doubt.