Phillies: Recapping a decade of terrible MLB Drafts

Where do the Phillies most recent draft classes stand amongst the rest of baseball?

When breaking down why the Phillies rebuild hasn’t gone as smoothly as others, a major turning point in the team’s performances in the MLB Amateur Draft.

As team executives have admitted, the big league team’s success also led to fewer and lower draft picks. Not being able to find diamonds in the rough like other teams did meant no fam system to restock the team when their older players moved on.

This led to overhyped prospects like Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Nick Williams, and Cole Irvin coming up to unfair expectations and widely failing in the big leagues.

Philadelphia also had a history of drafting family members, such as Andrew Amaro in 2011.

The lack of draft success dates back beyond the 2010’s, but their most recent draft classes have widely failed, leading to Baseball America (subscription required) to rank the Phillies 2010’s draft class as the fifth-worst in baseball.

Philadelphia finished ahead of just the the Yankees, Royals, Brewers, and Reds, while the Astros, White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Mets led the way

Here’s what Baseball America, who ranked teams based on the big league WAR of their draft picks, had to say about the Phillies.

WAR: 33.9, Top picks: Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Ken Giles The Phillies found Nola and Hoskins during an exceptional 2014 draft. Other than that, it was a rough decade with few draft successes to point to. Their 2017 class, featuring Adam Haseley and current No. 1 prospect Spencer Howard, has a chance to make things look a little better.

The only Phillies first round pick since 2004 with a big league WAR above 2.0 is Nola, and five players have negative WARs.

In the 2010s, only four first round picks (Nola, Adam Haseley, Jesse Biddle, and J.P. Crawford) reached the big leagues. Biddle and Crawford are no longer with the team, Biddle being cut and Crawford traded to Seattle.

Here’s an overview of the Phillies 2010’s draft class.

Here’s a look at the players drafted by Philadelphia in 2011 who reached the big leagues

2011

• 2nd round – Roman Quinn
• 3rd round – Adam Morgan
• 4th round – Cody Asche
• 5th round – Mitch Walding
• 7th round – Ken Giles
• 12th round – Yacksel Rios
• 13th round – Colton Murray
• 17th round – Jesen Therrien
• 33rd round – Brock Stassi
• 35th round – Kyle Freeland

Several players from the 2011 draft made it to the big leagues, but few turned into anything more than a flash in the pan or bench players. First round pick Larry Greene, a “toolsy” high school hitter, never made it past Single-A and was a career .224 hitter in the minors, making him one of the worst first round picks of the last decade.

Roman Quinn has world class speed, but injuries have hampered his career since early in the minor leagues. In the big leagues Quinn is a career .243 hitter with 24 extra-base hits and 23 stolen bases. He’ll be fighting for a big league job in 2020.

Morgan was a major disappointment as a starter and injuries have also slowed down his promising career. After debuting as a starter, the young lefty had a 5.37 ERA and his future was bleak. As a reliever, it’s a much more respectable 3.97 but the issue of health came back up in 2019.

Asche was an overhyped prospect who joins the list of failed third base prospects in Phillies history with a .240 batting average. He was last in the big leagues in 2017 as a White Sox and has bounced between six different franchises. Minnesota signed him to a minor league deal for the 2020 season.

Walding was a thorn in the side of fans since his arrival in 2018, going 0-16 with 10 strikeouts to start his career. Philadelphia moved on from the fifth round pick after an 0-2 start to the season with two strikeouts.

Giles has been the most successful player picked up by Philadelphia in this draft, coming up with an abundance of hype around his electric fastball. Giles recorded 16 saves with a 1.18 ERA in his first two seasons with the Phillies before being traded to Houston for a package of players. Since leaving he’s had mixed results with Houston and Toronto, but remains an effective reliever.

Rios showed promise for the Phillies early on, but he fell apart and was injured. Pittsburgh picked him up on waivers midway through the 2019 season.

Murray has a 6.18 career ERA in 32 games and was granted free agency after the 2017 season.

Therrien was unimpressive as a big league reliever with an 8.35 ERA in 15 appearances in 2017.

Stassi was a great story when he made the big league team out of spring training as a 33rd round pick who spent six years in the minors. The Cinderella story didn’t last long with a .167 batting average in 51 games, mostly off the bench, but it was a great story that resonated across the baseball community.

Philadelphia drafted Kyle Freeland with the 1,081st overall pick out of Thomas Jefferson High School in Denver, but the righty opted to go to college. The move paid off and he was drafted eighth overall by his hometown Rockies. Freeland had a ton of success in 2018 with a 2.85 ERA, finishing fourth in the Cy Young, but took a step back in 2019.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Greene: Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Fulmer, Trevor Story, Blake Snell

Notable draft picks missed: Josh Bell, Blake Treinen, Mookie Betts, Brandon Woodruff, J.D. Davis, Derek Fisher, Jon Gray, Trea Turner

Here’s a look at the players drafted by Philadelphia in 2012 who reached the big leagues.

2012

• 2nd round – Dylan Cozens
• 3rd round – Zach Green
• 6th round – Cameron Perkins
• 7th round – Hoby Milner
• 21st round – Drew Anderson
• 28th round – Joe Mantiply
• 29th round – Brad Wieck
• 40th round – Eric Hanhold

Neither of the Phillies two first round picks, Shane Watson or Mitch Grueller, ever made the big leagues, a crushing blow to the organization.

Dylan Cozens created buzz when he hit 40 home runs for Double-A Reading in 2016, but his raw power never materialized into a consistent big league bat. Cozens reached the big leagues in 2018 to hit just one home run with a .158 average, and he went 0-1 in 2019 before going out for the year with an injury.

Philadelphia released Cozens midway through the 2019 season, and he was later picked up by Tampa Bay.

Green was granted free agency after the 2018 season, never playing above Reading in the Phillies organization. He returned home to California to play for the Giants, hitting .143 in eight games last season.

Outfielder Cam Perkins played 42 games for Philadelphia in 2017, hitting .182 with five doubles and one home run. He proved to be nothing better than a fourth or fifth outfielder and was waived after the season. He’s spent time in the Mariners and Dodgers farm system and is now a minor league free agent.

Milner had a very successful rookie campaign in 2017, earning a 2.01 ERA in 37 relief appearances with the Phillies. He was never the same after that season with a 7.36 ERA ever since between the Phillies and Rays. Tampa Bay elected to release him following the 2019 season.

Drew Anderson was a promising pitcher who failed to stick in the big leagues, failing to keep his ERA below seven in nine big league games. Philadelphia released him in September 2019 despite a strong spring training out of the bullpen.

Pitchers Joe Mantiply, Brad Wieck, and Eric Hanhold didn’t sign with the Phillies after the draft, but all made big league debuts. They combine to have an 8.44 ERA in 58 career games.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Watson: Matt Olson, Lance McCullers Jr.

Notable draft picks missed: Alex Wood, Max Muncy, Ross Stripling, Jake Lamb, Matthew Boyd, Walker Buehler, Josh Hader

Here’s a look at the players drafted by Philadelphia in 2013 who reached the big leagues.

2013

• 1st round – J.P. Crawford
• 2nd round – Andrew Knapp
• 22nd round – Mark Leiter Jr.
• 29th round – Cavan Biggio
• 33rd round – Harrison Musgrave

The prize of the Phillies 2013 draft was believed to be J.P. Crawford, the heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins at shortstop. Selected 16th overall out of Lakewood High School, the same school that produced the Phillies 2007 first round pick Travis d’Arnaud, Crawford rose through the minor leagues fairly quickly for prospect drafted out of high school. By 2015 he was in Double-A and ranked as the second-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline.

Once Crawford reached Triple-A, his bat completely cooled off and never materialized into what many projected to be a quality top of the lineup bat. He went from being one of the best prospects in baseball to being unranked across the industry.

When Crawford got his shot as the opening day shortstop in 2018 he was plagued by injuries and a cold bat, hitting just .214 in 49 games. After the season Philadelphia would trade Crawford, arguably the biggest bust in recent franchise history, to Seattle in the Jean Segura deal.

Knapp, a college catcher from California, has materialized into nothing more than a backup catcher for the big league team. A career .223 hitter with little pop, Knapp brings energy to the team, but not much offensively.

Leiter Jr., the son of former Phillies reliever Mark Leiter Sr., came up in 2017 primarily as a reliever, although he did get some starts as a rookie. He finished the season with a 4.96 ERA but showed some promise with some of his pitchers.

He’d start the 2018 season on the disabled list and never got back to what the Phillies needed in the bullpen, leading to him being placed on waivers and being picked up by Toronto. Since then he’s undergone Tommy John surgery and was released by the Blue Jays.

Cavan Biggio would have been a steal if the Phillies had been able to lure him away from the University of Notre Dame, but the son of the Hall of Fame second baseman made a great decision and was drafted by Toronto in the fifth round three years later.

Biggio hit 16 home runs in 100 games for the Blue Jays last season and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. His 2.8 WAR would have been the fifth-best on the Phillies last year.

Musgrave was drafted in the 33rd round out of the University of West Virginia, but the Mountaineers southpaw returned for one more year and was picked in the eighth round by Colorado. In 45 relief appearances with the Rockies over two seasons Musgrave has a 4.45 ERA.

One player who was a disappointment was third round pick Cord Sandberg, who quit baseball after six seasons to play quarterback for Auburn.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Crawford: Tim Anderson, Aaron Judge, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, Corey Knebel

Notable draft picks missed: Cody Bellinger, Jeff McNeil, Ander Benintendi, A.J. Puk

Here’s a look at the players drafted by Philadelphia in 2014 who reached the big leagues.

2014

• 1st round – Aaron Nola
• 5th round – Rhys Hoskins
• 12 round – Austin Davis

The Phillies only had three players reach the big leagues from the 2014 MLB Draft, but two of them have the talent to be cornerstone pieces for the franchise.

Philadelphia changed their draft strategy when they took Aaron Nola out of LSU after years of taking high school hitters. The Phillies needed a starting pitcher who could move through the system quickly and help the big league team as soon as possible.

A little after one year following the draft Nola made his big league debut, allowing only one run with six strikeouts in six innings to Tampa Bay, who’d win 1-0.

Over five seasons Nola has the makings of an ace, finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2018 and facing a league-high 852 hitters in 2019. If Nola can remain on the same path he’s been on for the last couple of years, the Phillies have their game one starter for the postseason.

Taken 135 picks after Nola was Rhys Hoskins, who hit .319 with 12 home runs in 59 games for California State University Sacramento that season. Little would the Phillies know what kind of raw power would develop with Hoskins, who broke out to hit 38 home runs for Reading in 2016.

Hoskins would hit 29 home runs in Lehigh Valley before the Phillies called him up in 2017. His 18 home runs in 50 games, including eight in nine games, set records for both the team and the entire league. He became the fastest Major League player to hit his ninth, tenth, and eleventh career home runs, and tied a Phillies record by hitting a home run in five consecutive games. His electric rookie campaign led to a fourth place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Hoskins hit 34 home runs the following season, but struggled in 2019 under Gabe Kapler and his staff. The hope is that a new hitting approach will unleash the power and success Hoskins had in his rookie season and allow him to be the cornerstone middle of the lineup bat Philadelphia needs.

Austin Davis has become the Phillies swingman between Lehigh Valley and the big league bullpen. He’s got a 5.04 ERA in 46 relief appearances and will compete for a big league job in 2020.

The Phillies, unfortunately, lost second round pick Matt Imhof to a freak eye injury when a piece of workout equipment malfunctioned in 2016 and crushed his eyeball.

While only three players reached the big leagues, the 2014 class is considered one of the Phillies best draft classes in recent memory.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Nola: Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, Sean Newcomb, Matt Chapman, Luke Weaver, Derek Fisher

Notable draft picks missed: J.D. Davis, Paul DeJong

Here’s a look at the players drafted by Philadelphia in 2015 who reached the big leagues.

2015

• 2nd round – Scott Kingery

The only player drafted by Philadelphia in the 2015 draft who has reached the big leagues is super-utility man Scott Kingery.

From day one Kingery drew comparisons to Chase Utley and was crowned the next great Phillies second baseman. The University of Arizona star hit .351 in college and .278 in the minors before earning a six year deal worth $24 million.

Kingery’s rookie season was one to forget with exception to his ability to play six positions in the field. He’s played his natural position of second base almost the least of any position in his big league career, mainly getting time in center field, shortstop, and third base.

Going forward it appears Kingery will be the Phillies third baseman and everyday utility man. His future with the team is a certainty, but where he’ll play isn’t. Top prospect Alec Bohm is expected to play third base at some point in 2020, Didi Gregorius was signed to play short, Jean Segura is moving to second, and Adam Haseley is likely the starting center fielder.

Kingery at least gives the Phillies a lot of options if one of those players goes down, but it’s not the best situation for a young player.

Philadelphia whiffed once again in the first round of the draft by taking Cornelius Randolph, a high school infielder converted to outfield, with the 10th overall pick. Randolph hasn’t hit better than .265 since rookie ball and doesn’t have the power that would make a team turn a blind eye to his batting average.

The Phillies do still have hope for Luke Leftwich and Nick Fanti, two young pitchers who are still working thier way through the minor leagues.

Will Stewart could have also made this list, but he was the final piece in the J.T. Realmuto trade with Miami. The Marlins loved Stewart’s arm, but the Phillies felt comfortable giving him up instead of Spencer Howard.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Randolph: Kevin Newman, Walker Buehler, Mike Soroka, Austin Riley

Notable draft picks missed: Brandon Lowe, Harrison Bader

Here are the first five picks made by the Phillies in the 2016 MLB Draft.

2016

1. Mickey Moniak
2. Kevin Gowdy
3. Cole Stobbe
4. JoJo Romero
5. Cole Irvin

For only the second time in franchise history (after Pat Burrell in 1998) the Phillies held the first overall pick in the MLB Draft. Of course, this was not the year an obvious generational talent like Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, or Gerrit Cole was available. Philadelphia’s scouting department had to make a tough choice between a handful of players at the top of the draft.

I personally was a fan of AJ Puk and liked the idea of having Puk and Nola as two young pitchers who’d move through the organization quickly and create a solid 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Philadelphia went with high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, who many considered to be the safe pick.

So far Moniak has been a disappointment, though he is still developing in the minor leagues. In there and a half seasons in the minors Moniak has hit .256 with very little power and at least 100 strikeouts in his three full seasons.

Philadelphia Phillies

Moniak’s bat did pick up recently with a back-to-back 28 double season, and he picked up 13 triples and 11 home runs in Reading. The question for Moniak is ‘where does he fit into the Phillies long-term?’ The Phillies are banking on Adam Haseley, their first round pick from 2018, to be their center fielder. Is Moniak the guy in a couple of years when Andrew McCutchen’s contract is done? An outfield with a successful Moniak and Haseley paired Harper would be a dream for the Phillies, but at this point, it feels unlikely.

Kevin Gowdy was a highly ranked high school pitching prospect, but he suffered an injury that required Tommy John surgery. He appeared in four games in 2016 and missed all of 2017 and 2018. In his first season back from surgery he was 0-6 with a 4.68 ERA in 24 games for Lakewood.

Stobbe was the third high school player taken by Philadelphia, but he’s failed to hit better than .213 in his last three seasons. He did find some power last season with 19 doubles and 15 home runs, but he’s never played above Lakewood.

For the last couple of years Romero has been one of the Phillies top pitching prospects, but long-term he looks to be a reliever. After two years with an ERA under 2.60, his ERA has climed to as high as 5.82 last year between Reading and Lehigh Valley.

Irvin was drafted two times before the Phillies grabbed him in the fifth round. He was never ranked as a particularly high prospect in the organization and appears to be a reliever in the big leagues.

Other prospects still working their way up that fans should keep an eye on are 6’10 lefty Kyle Young (22nd round) and first baseman Darick Hall, who has hit at least 20 home runs in his last three seasons.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Moniak: Nick Senzel, A.J. Puk, Kyle Lewis, Gavin Lux, Carter Kieboom, Dakota Hudson, Forrest Whitley

Notable draft picks missed: Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, Sean Murphy, Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Adley Rutschman

2017

Here are the first five picks made by the Phillies in the 2017 MLB Draft.

1. Adam Haseley
2. Spencer Howard
3. Connor Seabold
4. Jake Schneiner
5. Ethan Lindow

This might be the draft that gives the Phillies some significant big league help. While the old Phillies regime was enamored with high school products, the new front office focused on talent that is almost big league ready.

Adam Haseley was taken with the eighth overall pick and is expected to be the Phillies starting center fielder on opening day. The University of Virginia product was labeled as a guy who could hit at every level with some power that could be unlocked down the road.

The prize of this class could be Spencer Howard, the Phillies top pitching prospect who could break into the big league rotation by the summer. He had a 2.47 ERA over the last two years between Lakewood, Clearwater, and Reading, giving Phillies fans hope that they have another ace on the way.

Seabold has been ranked towards the bottom of the Phillies prospect lists, but could also reach the big leagues as a reliever in 2020. He had a 2.24 ERA last season and shined in the Arizona Fall League over four starts with a 1.06 ERA.

In 2018 Scheiner hit .296 with 30 doubles and 13 home runs, but the Phillies traded him to Seattle in the Jay Bruce deal. He hit 14 home runs in 74 games for Seattle’s Advanced-A team with a .271 batting average.

Lindow has put up very impressive numbers out of the rotation and bullpen for Williamsport, Clearwater, and Lakewood. He’s got a 3.37 career ERA and just turned 21-years-old. The Phillies could be hearing more from him in a couple of years.

A couple of other names who have hit recent prospect lists include Nick Maton, Jhordany Mezquita, David Parkinson, Kyle Dohy, and Austin Listi.

Notable 1st round picks drafted after Haseley: Jo Adell, J.B. Bukauskas, Shane Baz

Notable draft picks missed: N/A

Here are the first five picks made by the Phillies in the 2018 and 2019 MLB Draft.

2018

• First round – Alec Bohm
• Fourth round – Colton Eastman
• Fifth round – Matt Vierling
• Sixth round – Kendall Simmons
• Seventh round – Gabriel Cotto

In 2018 the Phillies lost their second and third round draft picks for signing Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. They did land their top prospect and (hopefully) their franchise third baseman in Alec Bohm.

Another college product, Bohm has moved quickly through the farm system, hitting 21 home runs with a .305 batting average last year. He is expected to break the big league roster by the summer depending on injuries and how certain players shake out.

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Eastman was a very successful pitcher for California State University Fullerton and has a 3.62 ERA in his first 32 professional appearances.

Coming out of Notre Dame Vierling hit very well in Williamsport and Lakewood (hitting a combined .321) but his bat didn’t carry over in Clearwater last year with a .232 average.

The Phillies got a lot of praise for drafting Kendall Simmons in the sixth round out of Tattnall Square Academy in Macon, Georgia. While he hit 12 home runs last year his batting average is below .240 through 83 games.

Nineteen-year-old Gabriel Cotto has a long way to go after being taken out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. He’s got a lot of development left to go and spent his first two seasons in the Gulf Coast rookie league with an 8.57 ERA.

2019

• First round – Bryson Stott
• Third round – Jamari Baylor
• Fourth round – Erik Miller
• Fifth round – Gunner Mayer
• Sixth round – Andrew Schultz

The Phillies lost their second round pick in 2019 for signing Bryce Harper, but I don’t there will be many complaints about that.

Stott was another college bat with a high hitting pedigree who could be the next big league shortstop once Gregorius and Segura are gone. The Phillies dream would be to have Stott, Bohm, Kingery, and Hoskins be the next great Phillies infield, but we’re years away from potentially seeing that.

The 2019 class has played a limited number of games, but the steal of the class could be Miller, whose 2.25 ERA in 11 games helped land him on the team’s prospect rankings.

If the three most recent classes made by the new front office can pan out the Phillies could finally turn their farm system around, but for now it remains one of the worst in baseball thanks to years of poor drafts.